I haven't seen anyone call attention to this but it is an insane stat for midseason. The team has had backups get injured including WR Andrei Iosivas who started weeks 1 and 2 but got injured right as he was likely to lose his starting WR3 spot to Dohnte Meyers and S Kyle Dugger who fans have been calling to start over S Jordan Battle. Additionally, both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were injured in and didn't finish the wee 4 Jaguars game, but the overall injury luck of this team has been insane. Obviously plenty of time for that to change but in a league where half of the teams have injury excuses at any given time the Bengals have the opposite of that. With this in mind there should be no reason this team doesn't perform

ptdotme's 2026 NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 7

Traditional power rankings are fun and useful, but for another perspective we can use Elo ratings^1. Power rankings based on Elo ratings are objective, neutral, and self-consistent, and they have an added benefit: we can check their accuracy^2.

I calculate updates every week and post them here. My goal with this project is to use simple Elo ratings that reflect expected team performance in any hypothetical head-to-head matchup today (not just predict the playoff teams or Super Bowl). The ratings are based on team ratings and game outcomes from the previous week, including previous³ seasons^4. The model has been tested for accuracy against 8,400+ games since week 1 of the 1994³ season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date, and yet are about as accurate as the best humans at picking game winners^2.

Feedback is appreciated! Also, more stats and info than can be squeezed into a reddit post is all available on my 2026 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.  

¹See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to ...

²A huge advantage for Elo-based power rankings is that we can see if game winners are picked correctly. From 1994-2025, this model correctly picks winners in 65.7% of games, trailing Vegas's straight-up pick rate of 66.6%. This is ~2.6 fewer correct picks per season than Vegas.

³Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from say 2016 or even 2021 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from 2024, have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 1994 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.

⁴If we throw out previous seasons and start with a blank slate, we end up with ratings that are less accurate both at the beginning of the season and in the playoffs. If you'd still like to see the "blank slate" ratings, I publish them here.

Are these rankings biased toward the Bills? No, but there is a kind of selection bias at work here because honestly if the Bills had been terrible the last few years I wouldn't have been motivated to work on and publish these ratings, and you wouldn't be reading this.  

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So the Vikings are 6-0, but I gotta ask, what does KOC do? Flores is the engine that makes the Vikings scary, not KOC or the offense. He obviously doesn’t know how to evaluate QBs, given that he let Darnold walk out the door to a Super Bowl and just traded a young QB who just put on a clinic against the Texans.

Why do people think he’s a good coach again? Hes a good play caller but the best plays are never on the offensive side of the football which is where is specialty allegedly is. He can’t find or coach a QB out of a wet paper bag, and he coasts off other peoples accomplishments.

The best thing he does is take all the credit for going one and done in the playoffs.

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Murray, it was believed, would add another dimension to O’Connell’s offense. But after six games, the Vikings rank among the worst in the league in yards and points per game, and questions now loom over the quarterback and his ability to live up to expectations.

Murray got hurt early in the season opener, so he has actually only played four full games for O’Connell and the Vikings. In those four, Minnesota has averaged 301.3 yards per game (24th) and just 19.3 points per game (28th).

Murray, meanwhile, ranks 32nd among qualified passers with a career-low 162.4 passing yards per game. His completion percentage of 66.4 ranks 11th, and his passer rating of 85.8 (also a career low) ranks 22nd. According to Austin Mock’s QB Index, Murray ranks among the worst quarterbacks in the league.

The Kyler conundrum

Mike Jones' QB stock report ahead of Week 8

1. Joe Burrow

2. Patrick Mahomes

3. Josh Allen

4. Caleb Williams

5. Jared Goff

6. Brock Purdy

7. Trevor Lawrence

8. Drake Maye

9. C.J. Stroud

10. Dak Prescott

11. Bryce Young

12. Matthew Stafford

13. Aaron Rodgers

14. Sam Darnold

15. Jordan Love

16. Michael Penix Jr.

We're down to one undefeated team. If the Vikings win again I'll do a 7-0 post, if they lose I'll do a graphic with the longest each team has gone undefeated.

my demun mahomes missing tyquan man fackkkk

What if NFL games were actually battles for land?

This map starts with each team possessing territory around their stadium, and if a team is beaten, their land is taken by the team that beat them.

Territory Changes

The 49ers lost 6 territories to the Falcons

The Chiefs lost 6 territories to the Seahawks

The Packers lost 2 territories to the Lions

The Patriots lost 6 territories to the Bears

The Texans lost 2 territories to the Giants

Maps

Album of all maps

GIF through Week 7

Leaderboard

Season Totals

The Vikings have held the most territory this season (27).

The Buccaneers, Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Panthers, and Titans have held the least territory this season (1).

One point per territory held, each week

Upcoming Battles

The Bears and Seahawks are battling for each other's land

The Browns and Steelers are battling for each other's land

The Vikings and Lions are battling for each other's land

The Buccaneers are attempting to overthrow the Falcons

NFC NORTH

• Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions): Cold
  • The Detroit Lions actually benefitting from blatant ref shenanigans is a completely new experience for me. Good thing there’s a rematch coming up.
• Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers): Cool
  • Someone please check in on Tom Grossi.
• Ben Johnson (Chicago Bears): Freezing
  • Having faith in Santos like that is a sign of a great coach. Unless he missed of course then it would be a sign of a terrible coach.
• Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings): Cold 
  • Genuinely how do the Vikings keep doing it? How do they always win almost every game while barely playing well in any of them? If O’Connell can coach this offense up like we’ve seen in the past this team might be unstoppable.

NFC SOUTH

• Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Scorching
  • Back to back wins including a beatdown of a favored division rival is normally enough to elevate a coach from “Scorching” but Bowles has built up so much stink it’ll take a little bit more to air the room out.
• Dave Canales (Carolina Panthers): Cool [last week: Cold]
  • What in the name of Luke Kuechly happened here? Either Bucky Irving is a top 5 RB or the Panthers have a bottom 5 run defense. I guess it could be both.
• Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta Falcons): Cold
  • Being tall enough to intercept a layered Brock Purdy throw usually gets you in the NBA instead of the NFL.
• Kellen Moore (New Orleans Saints): Warm [last week: Cool]
  • Several Saints fans pointed out to me last week that their owner, who is usually very hands off, has expressed concern about the direction of the franchise, which is very bad news for Moore. Not quite as bad as only getting 18 rushing yards on 17 attempts in an anticipated Paris game, but still pretty bad.

NFC EAST

• Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles): Warm 
  • Does Sirianni actually get the boot if the Eagles don’t win another game? With the way they’re playing we may find out.
• Dan Quinn (Washington Commanders): Hot
  • Is a BYE week enough to make Washington fans forget about the shambolic decision making of the previous two games? Quinn certainly hopes so.
• Brain Schottenheimer (Dallas Cowboys): Warm 
  • Turns out a stoppable force can move a moveable object pretty easily. All it takes is Sean Mannion and Tanner McKee.
• John Harbaugh (New York Giants): Freezing [last week: Cold]
  • J.J. McCarthy is currently the King of Shit Mountain in the NFC East, just as we all expected going into the season. If the Giants can pull off two more very winnable division games coming up, Harbaugh may win Coach of the Year.

NFC WEST

• Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams): Freezing
  • The 2026 Rams feeling relieved after beating the Raiders shows how wack this season has been so far for them. 
• Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers): Freezing
  • Do injuries even phase anyone associated with the 9ers at this point? When they actually lose, yes.
• Mike MacDonald (Seattle Seahawks): Freezing
  • One of the most cathartic football games of the year so far, and I’m not even a Seahawks fan. They’ve got me siding with the Dark Side like I’m in r/EmpireDidNothingWrong.
• Mike LaFleur (Arizona Cardinals): Cold 
  • Trey McBride good, defense bad. The 2020’s Arizona Cardinals experience.

AFC NORTH

• Jesse Minter (Baltimore Ravens): Cold
  • Every star QB is overrated until they’re hurt and their team starts to drop a few important games. Bengals fans know that better than anyone.
• Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh Steelers): Freezing [last week: Cold]
  • I’ll be honest in saying that the McCarthy hire is working out better than I thought it would so far. In true Steeler fashion they have a really good record while playing some truly stupid games to get there. And in true Steeler fashion they’ll probably lose to Cleveland next week right when everyone starts to root for them.
• Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals): Cool [last week: Warm] 
  • Taylor is always an interesting one for this scale because the expectations from Bengals fans are far different than the expectations from the Cincinnati front office. As long as they have a winning record he should realistically be safe.
• Todd Monken (Cleveland Browns): Freezing
  • I don’t know how many different ways I can keep saying how annoyed I am at the Browns winning every week. Pay Watson again Jimmy, I dare you.

AFC SOUTH

• Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts): Scorching [last week: Hot]
  • Ballard is gone. Nelson is gone. Buckner is gone. Downs and Taylor might be gone. Steichen may be the last one out the door at the end of the season, but he’s also gone for sure.
• Liam Coen (Jacksonville Jaguars): Freezing
  • Jacksonville looks to be in firm command of their division with every other team being dumpster fires. I call that a successful BYE week.
• DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans): Warm [last week: Cool]
  • Ok but a 2-5 team can still make the playoffs right? Right? And the Texans defense is way too talented to not figure it out right? Right?
• Robert Saleh (Tennessee Titans): Warm [last week: Cool]
  • They’ve played better the last few weeks, but I’m sure the Titans were hoping to be better than 1-6 at this point with Cam Ward continuing to struggle. If there’s a one-and-done coach this year it will likely be Saleh.

AFC EAST

• Mike Vrabel (New England Patriots): Cold
  • Santos nailing that long clutch field goal after being terrible in New England is the exact kind of NFL shenanigans every fan base has fallen victim to at some point.
• Aaron Glenn (New York Jets): Scorching [last week: Hot]
  • Glenn seems to be the latest in the long line of great people who are terrible head coaches. Dropping a game to one of the least talented NFL rosters in years is pretty inexcusable.
• Jeff Hafley (Miami Dolphins): Cold
  • I am actually so tempted to put Hafley at “Freezing” just for this one win, but I’ll hold at “Cold” for now. That locker room celebration was so wholesome and it seems like there’s reason for hope in Miami.
• Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills): Cold
  • If the Lions defense can suddenly play better coming out of a BYE, then why not the Bills?

AFC WEST

• Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs): Freezing
  • Harrison Butker isn’t even good enough to justify having him around anymore. I’m sure he’ll find peace in giving up his career to take care of his family and home.
• Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas Raiders): Freezing
  • Losing to a 2-4 team would be a bad look in any other context, but the Raiders are just stockpiling those patented quality losses against good teams.
• Jim Harbaugh (Los Angeles Chargers): Hot 
  • It’s the Tuesday after the BYE and Mike McDaniel is still the Chargers OC. See you guys next August when all anyone can talk about is the POTENTIAL.
• Sean Payton (Denver Broncos): Freezing
  • Are you a good team that’s had 2 or 3 disappointing losses early on? Try playing the Arizona Cardinals! You’ll have more confidence than a man receiving a genuine compliment from an attractive stranger!

Tuesday, October 20 - Monday, October 26, 2026

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Last week's roundup

It's week 7, which is very exciting if your favorite number is 7 or if you are a fan of one of the NFL teams who won this past week. If not? Well, then come commiserate with your team's blurb writer and ranker, and argue to your heart's content that your 2-5 team is better than their 2-5 team.

29/32 Reporting · Rankings by Voter