The blown-lead graphic is floating around with the total now at 22 games; my main premise is that this is largely overstated and a mix of three different things. I went through every game on the graphic and linked the box score below with my thoughts.
What it gets right: about a fifth of these are genuine collapses, with some bad losses sprinkled in.
- Miami 2022: up 35-14 in the fourth, lost 42-38.
- Buffalo 2025: up 40-25 midway through the fourth, lost 41-40.
- Cleveland 2023: up 31-17 with 11 minutes left, at a 98% win probability.
- Cincinnati 2026: up 13-0 at halftime, lost 35-13 (Huntley Game, still historic L)
- The 2011 Steelers, 2018 Saints, 2020 Titans, and 2026 Saints games were bad losses but not notable leads imo.
What it gets wrong:
- About 12 of the 22 are screenshots taken seconds before the opponent scored, and 5 more are scores from right before halftime. Using a fixed checkpoint (up 15+ at the half or 10+ entering the fourth, equal possessions, etc.), only 3 of the 22 qualify. Many of the rest were back-and-forth games with multiple lead changes, where the "lead" was 10 points for a single possession.
- It spans 18 years and multiple eras. Flacco, Lamar, three different Huntley starts, and a new head coach are all treated as one identity. Only 2 of the 22 come from Lamar's 2018–21 seasons, when the Ravens were an elite 31-2 when up 10+ in the second half.
- Raw counts reward good teams. The Ravens are one of the NFL’s best fast starters; in 2023, they led at halftime in 11 of their first 12 games and outscored opponents by a league-best 116 first-half points, and no defense played more snaps with a double-digit lead in 2022–23. You can’t blow a lead you never had. So far, the Ravens led at half 6 out of their 7 games this year.
What the data actually suggests:
- 2018–21: the Ravens won about 94% of games when up 10+ in the second half, the same rate as Mahomes' Chiefs.
- 2022–23: that dropped to roughly 73–80%, which is a real problem.
- 2026: three blown double-digit leads already, and they’re just 3-3 when leading at halftime (league norm about 90% when lead is 10+). That’s concerning, but with two of those losses under a backup QB and no lead larger than 13, it’s too early to call it a trend.
Bottom line: the Ravens had a real lead-protection problem in 2022–23 (ironically while Macdonald was here; see side tangent below), and 2026 is trending the wrong way. The now infamous meme is a 20-year collage of mostly 10-point snapshots that doesn't prove the "chronic chokers" label rather inflates a two-season problem into a franchise identity.
Side Tangent: The 2022–23 dip, funny enough, lines up exactly with Mike Macdonald’s tenure as defensive coordinator. In 2023, his defense won the triple crown, leading the NFL in sacks (60), takeaways (31) and points allowed (16.5 per game), yet it still gave up a 31-17 fourth-quarter lead to Cleveland.
The pattern also followed him to Seattle. His 2025 Seahawks defense was elite by most measures, but it had a negative point differential in the fourth quarter while dominating the first three, and it twice failed to close out games early in the season.
Macdonald is an excellent defensive mind. Still, the evidence points to a possible pattern in this scheme family: dominant early, more vulnerable late. That could be from opponents adjusting to the disguise-heavy looks, or from a structure that gives up efficient drives when protecting a lead. We may be seeing a similar pattern early with Minter, but there are far more variables at play; an interesting thought regardless.
Here is each game summarized below for your own review:
| Game # |
Game (all losses) |
Tile shows |
Half |
Entering 4th |
Final |
Synopsis |
| 1 |
2008 Wk 4 at Pit, rookie Flacco |
13-3, 3rd 4:13 |
+10 |
−4 |
20-23 OT |
Ravens come back in 4th to force to OT and lose |
| 2 |
2010 Wk 6 at NE |
20-10, 4th 14:49 |
+3 |
+7 |
20-23 OT |
back and forth game |
| 3 |
2011 Div at PIT |
21-7, 3rd 9:56 |
+14 |
0 |
24-31 |
Steelers score twice in third, yes blown lead |
| 4 |
2012 Wk 13 vs PIT |
13-3, 2nd 0:43 |
+7 |
+7 |
20-23 |
three lead changes; twice it was tied |
| 5 |
2015 Div at NE |
28-14, 3rd 6:52 |
+7 |
0 |
31-35 |
scores in bunches, Bal scores twice NE scores twice |
| 6 |
2015 Wk 5 vs CLE |
21-9, 3rd 1:07 |
+5 |
+5 |
30-33 OT |
3 lead changes, 505 yard Mccown Game |
| 7 |
2016 Wk 16 at PIT |
20-10, 4th 11:41 |
−1 |
+7 |
27-31 |
Ravens were literally down at half and managed to get an early 4th fg to stretch lead to ten before PIT rallied back |
| 8 |
2018 Wk 7 vs NO |
17-7, 4th 12:33 |
+3 |
+10 |
23-24 |
Collapse in 4th, offense stalled |
| 9 |
2020 Wk 8 vs PIT |
17-7, 3rd 13:28 |
+10 |
−4 |
24-28 |
4 lead changes, back and forth game |
| 10 |
2020 Wk 11 vs TEN |
21-10, 3rd 5:33 |
+4 |
+8 |
24-30 OT |
Bal did not score from early third till late 4th to force OT, Choke |
| 11 |
2022 Wk 2 vs MIA |
35-14, 4th 12:12 |
+21 |
+21 |
38-42 |
not even looking this one up, horrible choke |
| 12 |
2022 Wk 4 vs BUF |
20-3, 2nd 0:09 |
+10 |
0 |
20-23 |
BAL did not score entire second half, while lead was never big, bad loss |
| 13 |
2022 Wk 6 at NYG |
20-10, 4th 6:04 |
+3 |
+3 |
20-24 |
back and forth game, BAL led by 10 for one possession |
| 14 |
2022 Wk 12 at JAX |
19-10, 4th 5:59 |
−1 |
+2 |
27-28 |
seven lead changes, back and forth |
| 15 |
2022 Wk 17 vs PIT (Sunday night), Huntley starting |
13-3, 3rd 7:27 |
+7 |
+7 |
13-16 |
Huntley Game, lead lasted 6 mins |
| 16 |
2023 Wk 10 vs CLE |
31-17, 4th 8:57 |
+8 |
+7 |
31-33 |
fourth quarter collapse, CLE scored throughout and BAL couldn't put it away |
| 17 |
2024 Wk 2 vs LV |
23-13, 4th 9:24 |
+3 |
+3 |
23-26 |
largest lead was 10, frustrating loss but nothing crazy |
| 18 |
2025 Wk 1 at BUF |
34-19, 4th 13:58 |
+7 |
+15 |
40-41 |
Not looking up; this was bad |
| 19 |
2025 Wk 16 vs NE |
24-13, 4th 9:03 |
0 |
+4 |
24-28 |
Lamar hurt in second |
| 20 |
2026 Wk 2 vs NO |
14-3, 2nd 0:02 |
+8 |
+8 |
17-24 |
one-score game going into half |
| 21 |
2026 Wk 6 at CLE |
10-0, 3rd 8:27 |
+10 |
+7 |
10-13 |
Huntley Game |
| 22 |
2026 Wk 7 vs CIN |
13-0, 3rd 9:26 |
+13 |
−1 |
13-35 |
Huntley Game |