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This week seems significant and could shape sentiment across both stocks and broader markets

• Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft earnings
• Thursday: Amazon, Intel, Sandisk earnings / U.S. PCE Inflation & GDP Data
• Friday: Bank of Japan Rate Decision

Regards, please weigh in with your strategies. I'd assume standard buy high sell low remains, but open to other ideas as well

At this point it is clear that the company has been paying everything with convertible.

Basically, they've been promising early investers and AI infra providers "once we go IPO, all of us will be rich without me paying you."

From their S-1 I don't see how big their promised bag is late investers are supposed to hold after IPO for early investers.

Based on their "80B marked loss" from June, I'd imagine somewhere between $100~200B. Any thoughts on this?

Throughout my career on options I think it took me $50k to finally have a profitable trade!

RDDT's growth is over.

1. Google's AI overview is here to stay. Reddit hasn’t been able to significantly grow US DAU for 2.5 years now and this is an enormous and imo insurmountable headwind. 50% of traffic comes from Google. People that add “Reddit” to the end of their search query are likely DAU/WAU already anyway. I don’t see any compelling arguments that the US market isn’t already capped. It’s been long enough.
   1. Counter: Google's search traffic referrals are low intent!!! RDDT 40-50x PE was given due to sustained growth projections and even 10% slower growth changes the equation significantly.

**Quarter** |**US Logged-In DAUq**
**Q2 2024** |20.4M
**Q3 2024** |21.5M
**Q4 2024** |21.9M
**Q1 2025** |23.0M
**Q2 2025** |22.9M
**Q3 2025** |23.1M
**Q4 2025** |23.0M
**Q1 2026** |23.2M
**Q2 2026** |23.1M

1. Stagnant US DAU for 2 years straight at this point. US market growth is capped. All the global DAU growth is coming from India (extremely low margins and very poor country). Since Reddit can't rely on user growth to fuel revenue growth, they can only rely on ARPU growth and that's easily priced in. C-suite talks about converting logged out to logged in users every single earnings call but haven't been able to execute
2. Low base effect leading to impressive looking percentages. Growing revenue $100-$150 million per quarter for a $28B company doesn't deserve a high multiple
3. Terminal growth rate will be reached much quicker than expected because of this and PE will trend towards 10-20 like its more mature peers. You’re looking at Q1 2027 where they’ll no longer be able to grow revenue at 60% as they did 663m in Q1 2025. It’s a lot harder to grow 60% when the base is now 700-900m a quarter in 2026.
4. Recessionary macro environment leads to less ad spend. Higher interest rates and rising inflation are not advertising budgets friends and it’s usually the first place companies and easily cut back spend on.
5. New data licensing deals aren't going to be explosive since LLMs have been trained on all previous data already and up to date circlejerks will have diminishing returns. Reddit needs Google way more than Google needs Reddit. Nobody has paid for Reddits data since 2024 during the biggest capex boom in American history. Reddit is the only one who seems to think their data has any value.
6. Peers trade at 10-15 fwd PE. We can be generous and assume EPS for the next 12 months will be $7. At 15 PE that’s a share price of $105. Your argument is that revenue is growing 60% YoY!!! My argument is that future growth is priced in and with stagnant US DAU that curve is flattening quickly rather than accelerating. ARPU growth is priced in. This is all why multiples will compress, not expand. The hyper growth story is over.
   1. Counter: but PINS and SNAP are dogshit companies!!! Correct but unfortunately this is the basket of ad tech companies that RDDT trades with. PEG of PINS and RDDT is both 0.4. APP and META also have decent growth and low multiples.
7. $1.2B in projected FCF for 2026 and $1B alotted to buybacks. AND now fully diluted shares is increasing from 206M to 207M. Reddit isn’t expanding its balance sheet and it’s not returning any shareholder value, it’s using all its cash to tread water instead of growing, and it’s using shareholders to fund salaries. All tech companies use SBC but the numbers aren’t conducive to returning shareholder value for this company.
8. I've never bought anything from RDDT and don't really click on the ads either. Then again I’m the type of person who doesn’t buy from ads on any platform. If I want something I just buy it I don’t get influenced by ads. RDDT trails both in average daily time spent on the app by A LOT. TikTok 1hr 37 minutes, IG 1hr 13min, Reddit 19 min. Why would advertisers budget a lot of spend on Reddit ads when TikTok and IG would grant way better returns?

If you search Reddit ad experiences on here, it’s 90% complaints that they suck and produce shitty returns and lots of bot impressions.

1. C-suite sent out RDDT Bag Holder carabiners prior to the last earning report because they didn't have the foresight to see that lower DAU would tank the stock. Is this management team the one you have confidence in? How that didn’t become a media debacle is still beyond me. Any CEO who send shareholders merch calling them bagholders while the stock tanks and that doesn’t make the main stream news is baffling.

The reality: RDDT is below the price it was trading at in Nov 2024, investors have missed out on 2 YEARS of opportunity cost, Jen Wong has sold like a BILLION dollars worth of shares, and now there's a thesis changing headwind.

PT $100 by December

Positions
700 long at $170 (sunk cost fallacy)
7 175cc 10/30 $4.80 (STO)
4 130p 11/20 $4.25 (BTO)
225 RDTL $10.92

Save the dolphins! 🐬

My all-time chart is still green... but only by a fraction of this amount

Oct 26 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms (META.O)
, on Monday launched public offerings of about $35 billion in common ‌stock and convertible preferred stock, as the Facebook parent seeks to finance its costly AI expansion.
The social media company also said it plans to launch ⁠a separate at-the-market share sale program of up to $60 billion after its new non-voting Class C shares begin trading, which is expected in the first quarter of 2027.

Hi there, Im 30 YO male, got laid off last year because of AI.

I also moved to live alone with my dog in a single room apartment.

I thought I could win big with high beta stocks, didnt sell in May.

hope new year rally will ease the loses.

anyway, keeping up with positive vibes cause stocks always go up right?

edit: typo "laid"

Found out about options around June this year and lost $20k in a week on 0dte. Finally green after 4 months of degeneracy. Don’t you just love gambling?

CART is my 3rd largest position and I noticed it went up ~23% in the last two trading days. I heard the rumors on Friday that CART was seeking buyers, today near close it was reported DASH is in late stage talks to buy for $17B. Potentially closing the deal this week.

I’m surprised I haven’t seen any other posts here. As a shareholder of CART I’m a bit disappointed, I was pretty bullish and it was trading so cheap that I was expecting pretty huge returns over the next 5-10yrs. If $17B is correct I’ll still be up about 60% over 15 months ish, which is fine.

I also own DASH, albeit a much smaller position. I’m conflicted on my thoughts here, everyone thought DASH could just enter grocery delivery and eat CARTs lunch. I didn’t believe it would be that easy, which is why I had so much CART, but I’m still pretty surprised they’re buying CART for so much. I still think CART is cheap so I guess they’re getting a bargain while trading at a higher valuation, so potentially it’ll be a big value add. DASH is trading down -13% over the last couple trading days, which happens to be very close to a $17B decrease in market cap kinda sus.

What’re yalls thoughts?

Edit: position

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It’s been 3 years since I had to tell my wife, parents, and in laws….

Friends, fellow church volunteers, etc…. About how I was the downfall of my families financial future.

I got caught up in the post GameStop hype, and stayed for the ride.

Rode every loss with… as long as I can make my minimums, most people have debt and I have none so what’s a few delayed credit card payments.

The irony is my chart doesn’t even show my up time. I was up ~ $40k when GameStop announced a stock split over a year after the crazy boom, but now the time line doesn’t even show the spike beating my downhill spiral. By shear dumb luck I was up $40k with a total account of $60k. I even bragged. In a week after I was below $5k in total value.

From there. Delayed every payment and made the minimums cause I knew my day would come. But it never did, or was never substantial enough to bail me out of what I had done. Over $159k in losses to the market financed on delayed credit card payments left me with no choice but to sell our home, which helped clear a lot, but it’s still being paid down

I still have the wife and kids, I still have family that supports me. I recently went to NYC and wanted a picture with the bull when I know the market nearly ruined my life and has changed me forever…

And even so, I had a great time in the threads, and it pushed my out of necessity into a broader career path I like cause I needed better income to stave off my incredible interest payments.

The debt is nearly paid off, the new journey is ahead. And I’ve even been able to play a little and start to get out while I’m ahead.

Be careful, be willing to lose anything you put in. And always remember that JPOW was taken from us too soon, and mostly remember. There are people in your life who love you and need you, so get your bag, share the gains and losses, but don’t sacrifice yourself in the journey.

Edit:

To those who don’t understand charts…

I’ve essentially at worst put in $160k into the market and lost it. Since then, I’ve clawed it back to -110k into losses. So I’ve “made 50k from my lowest point.”

None of this was margin, none of this is margin call. This is financing future gains on credit cards by putting more of my paycheck into the market than my bills, doing the minimums but drowning in overall.

What the -110k and .29c means is that. I’m not in anything right now. If I “made money” aka am up from my lowest, it’s been taken out to get out of debt but it’s a crawl.

Maybe I’ll hit the market again later.

One of the cheapest multiples of all publicly traded US stocks is CHTR. With a market cap of about $19b against debt of more than $100b (including Cox acquisition). This thing is leveraged to the tits and is likely either a complete loss or multi bagger.
I know the business is a melting ice cube. With the amount of leverage in this either rates down or actual plan to pay down debt would benefit equity holders immensely.
Since 2019 management has wasted over $50b in buybacks if instead it went to debt retirement annual interest would be almost $3b less. The market will not reward any more buybacks but if management also understands this then they just need to switch from buying shares to buying debt.
They could conceivably cut about 2-3% of debt per year if they were semi aggressive which the market would likely support.
Also the gargantuan debt makes equity extremely sensitive to rates thus this would benefit if rates fall as well.

Tell me why I’m wrong.

TLDR - boomer tv company is leveraged 9x. Equity investment has 50% chance of going to zero or 50% chance to $400+.

Meta kicked off that fundraising process on Monday with a plan to raise $35bn in underwritten public equity offerings. It also plans to raise a further $60bn via an “at the market” programme.

https://www.ft.com/content/94e5a0ae-874d-447a-bbfc-cd465a1a7555?shareType=nongift Meta plans $95bn stock offering to bankroll AI expansion

You know, I'm something of a day trader myself.

It is potentially going to be a rocky week where every signal matters. Everyone's worried about AI bubbles, interest rates, inflation. I spent this afternoon looking at perhaps an understated correlation: what happens to the S&P 500 after a Grand Theft Auto release?

I may have uncovered the single greatest bullish indicator for the next cycle. First, let’s analyze the data:

S&P 500 returns between every major GTA release:

These are already extraordinary returns. Five of seven GTA releases have produced positive market returns; and every single release since Vice City has indicated S&P gains!

But the data gets even more interesting. GTA2 and GTA3 produced negative S&P returns. What can we find? Both featured protagonists named Claude. Remove Claude from the games and each GTA release has a 100% success rate producing positive market returns. GTA VI features Jason and Lucia, but no Claudes. It remains to be seen if somehow Anthropic Claude manages to confuse traders and breaks this support pattern.

Now you might also think: orrelation does not imply causation. So in the interest of scientific rigour I investigated whether the stock market begins rallying before Rockstar announces the next GTA, or whether the announcement itself is required to unlock the gains. Put simply - do we need the presence of a next GTA release to start the bull cycle again.

The data here is more mixed:

The GTA IV → GTA V cycle is particularly interesting. The S&P 500 had fallen 12% before Rockstar announced GTA V in October 2011. Following that announcement, it rallied 39% before the game was even released. Rockstar's communications department may have single-handedly reversed a multi-year equity downturn with a press release.Meanwhile, if we use San Andreas's actual named announcement in March 2004, the market had already rallied 31% since Vice City. Apparently institutional investors had priced in CJ months before the general public.

So the real conclusion is the next GTA announcement is neither a leading or lagging macro indicator; even though GTA releases clearly are.

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left like 7k on the table so far, but i would have to tank going negative on that pullback. even if it goes higher I'm pretty satisfied