Made $3k yesterday and posted it in here because i was really excited and was just constantly berated with comments of "you're gonna lose everything" "you got lucky" "you can't do it again" well guess what i'm up 276% in my first two months and im gonna take a break for a few weeks🥱 fuck you to the haters, especially user Federal_Phase_652

The AI IPO hype is cranking up another notch now that Anthropic has officially filed its S-1, kicking off the public countdown to its Nasdaq listing. Reports are swirling the debut could land as early as November 16-20, right ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and the market is absolutely buzzing to see the final price range when the amended S-1 drops.

Valuation expectations are sitting between $1.5T to $2T right now, and this listing is going to be one of the biggest real-world checks on just how much Wall Street is willing to bet on the ongoing AI boom. 87% of polled investors are sitting tight waiting for this IPO rather than chasing indirect adjacent exposure, and you can feel the FOMO slowly building as everyone marks their calendars for the roadshow kicking off the week of November 9. Who’s got their watchlist set to track this one closely?

The major U.S. stock indexes ended broadly higher on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, extending Monday’s recovery into a second straight session as chip stocks rallied and investors positioned ahead of the most consequential 24-hour stretch of the year: Microsoft and Alphabet earnings tomorrow night and the Fed’s rate decision Wednesday afternoon. It was a calm, constructive session defined almost entirely by anticipation.

The S&P 500 gained 0.60% (+45.83 pts) to 7,722.60. The Dow was essentially flat, up just 0.03% (+15.99 pts) to 52,377.57. The Nasdaq climbed 1.18% (+308.43 pts) to 26,477.81. The Russell 2000 rose 1.17% (+32.61 pts) to 2,819.04.

The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.99%. The VIX fell 4.40% to 17.58. Gold rose 0.88% to $4,074.10. Crude Oil fell 1.54% to $100.19/barrel, hovering right at the psychologically important $100 level.

I have seen a lot catchy headlines about Anthropic S-1 so I figured I would actually sit down and go through it. As someone who has been interested in the whole idea of an AI bubble, I wanted to see if there were going to be parallels between dotcom companies and Anthropic:

The answer was Yes and No.

——————————————————

Anthropic just opened its books. Here's what's inside, and why it rhymes with 2000.

Yesterday the maker of Claude filed to go public. Strip away the hype and here's what you need to know.

THE QUICK BREAKDOWN

• It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT" (kind of hilarious ticker I dont know why)
• Revenue is exploding. It went from $41 million in 2023 to $4.59 billion in 2025 and $16.29 billion in the first half of 2026 alone.
• The headline loss is scary. Anthropic recorded a net loss of $80.7 billion for the six months through June 2026, but $72.4 billion of that was an accounting charge for the rising value of its convertible notes. (Graphic 2)
• The real pressure point is compute. The company has committed to spending between $542 billion and $567 billion on future compute and infrastructure.
• Buyers get the money but not the steering wheel. A trust elects four of seven directors, and a single share held by the co founders' LLC casts a fixed 50.1% of every general vote.

WHAT ANTHROPIC ACTUALLY DID WITH AMAZON'S NOTES

Starting in 2023, Amazon gave Anthropic money in the form of convertible notes. Think of a convertible note as a loan with a twist: instead of getting paid back in cash, the lender can swap the loan for shares at a price locked in on day one.

Amazon's price was locked in very low. The prospectus shows about $6.2 billion of principal that converts into 1.84 billion shares at fixed prices of roughly $2.09 and $5.05. Since then, Anthropic's last private round priced shares near $59. So the same $6.2 billion IOU is now carried at $108.6 billion. When the company goes public, those notes turn into shares for Amazon, up to Amazon's 12% ownership cap, with the rest rolling into new notes.

Accounting rules make Anthropic record that jump in value as a loss. That's why the first half of 2026 shows such a huge number: $72.4 billion of the loss came from the notes becoming far more valuable than when they were issued. No cash left the building. Amazon simply got a slice of the company that is now worth about 17 times what it paid. (Graphic 1)

Here's the part that matters. Amazon isn't just an investor. It's also one of Anthropic's biggest suppliers, with a $110 billion compute deal running from May 2026 to April 2036. And it's a sales channel too, since about 48% of first half 2026 revenue came through the AWS, Google Cloud and Azure marketplaces.

Google got a similar sweetener. In March and April 2026, alongside their compute agreements, Google and Amazon agreed to buy preferred shares at $259.14, while the next round priced at $589.01 just weeks later. Anthropic booked a net $9.4 billion loss on the gap.

WHY THAT RHYMES WITH 2000

In the dotcom days, startups regularly handed their big partners a piece of the company instead of, or on top of, cash. When drkoop signed its $89 million deal with AOL, AOL also received fully vested and performance based warrants to buy drkoop shares. Later, drkoop's cash payments were converted into stock, giving AOL a 10% stake. The partner selling the service also owned a chunk of the customer.

The telecom giants ran the same idea from the other direction. Lucent, Nortel and Cisco lent money to young carriers so those carriers could buy Lucent, Nortel and Cisco equipment. The supplier funded the customer, and the customer's spending came right back as the supplier's sales.

Anthropic's setup has both flavors at once. Its biggest suppliers own a growing piece of it through cheap notes and discounted shares, and those same suppliers collect the compute bills and sell its product. That's the loop: money and ownership flowing out to a partner, and spending flowing back to that same partner.

THE HONEST DIFFERENCE

Amazon put in real cash, and Anthropic's revenue comes from real customers. Most dotcoms handed out stock because they didn't have cash, and Homestore went further and faked its sales. Nothing in this filing shows that. The risk here isn't fake numbers. It's that Anthropic's investors, landlords and cash registers are the same few companies, and in 2000 that kind of tangle held up right until one link broke.

HOW THE DOTCOM CROWD DID IT

AOL and drkoop. The health site went public in 1999 and almost immediately signed a deal to pay AOL $89 million over four years, with AOL also getting warrants to buy drkoop shares. When the cash ran dry, the payments were converted into stock, giving AOL a 10% ownership stake. The ending: bankruptcy in December 2001, with its assets sold for just $186,000.

AOL and Homestore. This one was a loop. Homestore paid inflated sums to vendors, the vendors used that money to buy ads from media companies, and the media companies then bought ads from Homestore. Regulators summed it up simply: Homestore recycled its own money to generate revenues. Ad revenue was overstated by $46 million, or 64 percent, for the first three quarters of 2001. AOL didn't walk away clean either: the SEC later brought civil charges against four former AOL executives over $1.26 billion in restated earnings.

Lucent, Nortel and Cisco. The equipment makers lent money to shaky startups so the startups could buy their gear. Alcatel, Cisco, Nortel and Lucent committed about $1.5 billion, $2.5 billion, $2.1 billion and $7 billion respectively. When the carriers started dropping, Winstar's bankruptcy exposed that vendors had routinely financed deals for the shakiest startup carriers. The loan and the "sale" died together. (Graphic 3)

THE 2026 VERSION

Look at who sits on every side of Anthropic's table.

• Amazon is the lender. Amazon is also a supplier, with a $110 billion compute deal running from May 2026 to April 2036.
• The cloud giants are also the store. About 48% of first half 2026 revenue was sold through the AWS, Google Cloud and Azure marketplaces.

Then there's scale. Lucent's vendor loans were about a quarter of a year's revenue. Anthropic's compute promises are about eight years of current revenue. (Graphic 4) Those are different kinds of promises, but the direction should make you pause. And the company itself warns that customers can often reduce usage or terminate with limited or no notice, while the compute bills keep coming.

Independent finance reporter Jack Gamble of Nobody Special has been hammering the hardware side of this. His take: the hardware, not AI itself, is the bubble, and the debt market is starting to flinch, with CoreWeave's bonds trading around 80 cents on the dollar.

WHERE THE COMPARISON BREAKS

Fair is fair. drkoop had almost no revenue. Homestore faked its sales. Nothing in this filing shows fake revenue. Anthropic says it has more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 in trailing revenue, it posted its first operating profit, $974 million, in the second quarter, and it held $131.7 billion of cash and short term investments at June 30. Even a skeptical review notes the accounting and direct customer contracts are evidence against the claim that investor money simply returns as revenue, though the filing leaves the question open.

BOTTOM LINE

This isn't drkoop. The business is real. But the money map looks a lot like 2000: the same giants are the investor, the landlord and the cash register. In 2000 that loop held until one link snapped. If you're buying this IPO, you're betting nothing snaps.

Not financial advice. Read the filing yourself.

Tesla just bounced 31% off 2026 lows, SpaceX up over 40% YTD, and the buzz around this potential historic tie-up is hitting every trading desk. Street analysts are throwing out merger premium targets and rethinking the whole physical intelligence economy play. Who’s already positioned for the chaos?

over the last two months i did nothing but play it safe and lost 3 grand.... luckily today i made it all back... Praying to god i can make at least $50 tmrw i feel as though i did something illegal😭

First time post on this subreddit. Been following NRXP ($110M MC, 43.3M OS) for almost two years, posting elsewhere -- and now here because THE TIME IS RIGHT!

Two imminent catalysts are upon us, the first of which has a Nov 10 (or sooner) FDA decision date on a very highly derisked drug approval setup, as described in a series of short and concise information-filled and explanatory posts.

And, for longer term investors, there is another major catalyst with results due around the end of 2027. NRx is entering a TAM projected to be $3B in 2027, for ketamine/esketamine.

1. Nov 10, 2026 (or before) FDA ANDA decision date for KETAFREE: generic, preservative-free, intravenous (IV) ketamine for analgesics (pain) and anesthesia use. See prior posts as to why it is a HIGHLY DERISKED SETUP.
2. Imminent NRX-100 NDA filing: preservative-free, intravenous (IV) ketamine for psychiatric use. Initiated the filing in Dec 2024 and has been submitting modules to the FDA since. Early 2026 the indication was expanded, which yielded a 10x TAM of potential patients. Uses the same U.S. manufacturer as the generic, KETAFREE. NDA likely to be strategically filed with the FDA immediately after the approval of the KETAFREE ANDA on or before Nov 10.
3. NRX-101 Phase 3 drug trial in the recruitment phase now. 18-month total study time. Results should come around the end of 2027. $11.2M DARPA funding announced on Sep 30, 2026.

This post contains a link to a prior post, and each prior post has a link to the one prior, for a total of 4 posts in the last month and the 5th one posted two months ago. Those posts should provide you with ample information to consider making an investment decision.

However, now is also the time for a trade decision. Short sellers have absolutely gone over their skis! They pushed down the share price to $2.24 in the last week or two and now it's back to around $2.70, after being shorted from around $3.40 a month ago. In the interim, the KETAFREE ANDA has become very highly derisked (see posts).

Previous informational post from 8 days ago (note the ready-to-ship vials stocking level):

NRx Pharmaceuticals (NRXP) - Great news again! Today's PR is essentially final confirmation needed for an FDA approval letter on "OR PRIOR TO" the FDA's Nov 10 GDUFA decision date for the KETAFREE ANDA

NRXP short interest, October 15, 2026 settlement (MarketBeat):

• Shares short: 9,949,938, up 1.6% from 9,793,940 on September 30
• % of float: 24.55%
• Days to cover: 16.8, based on about 1.04M average daily volume
• Dollar value short: $26.96M at a $2.71 price on the report date

Recent trend:

It's up 4000% this year. Explain why this is a bad idea.

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Prob could’ve sold for more but the app was lagging hard and the option was not updating

Bought this today, i’m really hoping SOFI can break into the teens and hopefully reach 20 as it’s finally above the 50 EMA. With FOMC tmr im hoping it doesn’t shake the market too much.

I rebounded form my options withdrawal someone tell me to take my money out

Go ahead and add your regard memes

So what stocks/calls are we picking for maximum money? What will be our ponies in this race? Me, I'm picking SPY, +25, no +50% because Trump will be impeached, right!? Jokes, of course he won't .

Im planning on holding ISRG long term, should I sell NVDA close to election day and they buy back in before earnings? Not pictured is a couple hundred loss on a SPY call, I am so done with options

The price is higher than my breakeven price. Can someone explain why this would be?

$BRAI
Entry above: $3.15 🎯 $3.50/$3.75 🛑 $3.00
$SDEV
Entry above: $1.20 🎯 $1.30/$1.40 🛑 $1.10
$FRGT
Entry above: $1.34 🎯 $1.50/$1.65 🛑 $1.25
$IPST
Entry above: $2.61 🎯 $2.81/$3.01 🛑 $2.50

Note: These are trade ideas based on break-out levels, once they hit entry & start moving up, consider raising your stops to protect your profits and protect your downside according to your own trading plan :). MadMaverick personally trades these on either the 2 or 3 minute timeframes, waiting for a candle to close over the entry level.

Although we do extensive research for our watchlist, day trading, especially with low-float stocks, can be risky.

Bought and sold all day. QQQ only switched back and forth. I think red open unless Mango posts more BS. Was holding puts for tomorrow but chickened out.

(Praying)

Edit: throwing up

Green is Green

The major U.S. stock indexes ended broadly higher on Monday, October 26, 2026, as Anthropic’s surprise IPO filing reignited AI enthusiasm, oil fell back below $102, and ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished in the green. It was the relief session bulls desperately needed after two brutal weeks, with the S&P 500 recovering to within 1.6% of its all-time high.

The S&P 500 gained 0.70% (+53.09 pts) to 7,676.77. The Dow added 0.28% (+146.42 pts) to 52,361.58. The Nasdaq climbed 0.82% (+214.04 pts) to 26,169.38. The Russell 2000 rose 0.32% (+8.97 pts) to 2,784.87.

The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.99%. The VIX dropped 5.31% to 18.42. Gold gained 0.49% to $4,027.70. Crude Oil fell 1.58% to $101.64/barrel, its first close below $102 since last week’s Houthi attack surge.