At 8pm

Dems 199,261

Rep177,200

Rep caught up a cpl thousand since noon or so. Should have a final for the day data dump in a couple hours.

#staytuned

Nevada Early Voting Update — October 27, 2026, 9 AM

Nevada's early voting numbers continue to show Democrats leading Republicans in ballots cast, although the difference between mail voting and in-person voting remains significant.

MAIL BALLOTS — Accepted statewide

Democrats lead Republicans by 30,350 accepted mail ballots, an 11.4-percentage-point advantage.

EARLY IN-PERSON VOTING

Approximately 181,000 ballots have been cast in person. The exact party breakdown at the 9 AM cutoff has not been established from the supplied screenshots, so I am not assigning party percentages to that total.

COMBINED EARLY VOTING

Using the 181,000 in-person figure and 265,542 accepted mail ballots, approximately 446,542 ballots have been cast and accepted statewide.

The mail-ballot numbers show a clear Democratic registration advantage. The final combined party percentages will depend on the in-person breakdown.

HOW DOES THIS COMPARE WITH 2022 AND 2024?

For a fair comparison, we need to look at the same number of days before Election Day, not simply the same calendar date. October 27, 2026, is seven days before Election Day. The equivalent dates are November 1, 2022, and October 29, 2024.

Historical election data show that Republicans had a substantial advantage in early in-person voting in both 2022 and 2024, while Democrats led mail voting in both elections. Those are full-election figures, however, and should not be confused with turnout at the equivalent point in each election.

The important distinction: These numbers identify voters by party registration, not which candidates they supported. Nonpartisan and minor-party voters are a substantial part of the electorate, and their candidate preferences cannot be determined from turnout statistics.

Source: Nevada Secretary of State, VIVID election dashboard, October 27, 2026, 9 AM snapshot. Historical context: Nevada Secretary of State election reports.

Statewide cumulative early voting, including mail-in ballots and in-person early voting (IPEV).

What the numbers tell us

2022 vs. 2026: Nevada has recorded approximately 90,042 more early ballots in 2026 than the 356,500 reported at eight days out in 2022. That's an increase of 25.3%. However, the 2026 count includes one additional day of voting.

A separate report from November 1, 2022 — exactly seven days before that election — indicated that more than 400,000 ballots had been cast by that afternoon, representing approximately 22% of active registered voters. Democrats led Republicans by approximately 12,500 ballots, or 3.1 percentage points.

Using that more comparable 2022 report, the 2026 total is higher by fewer than 46,542 ballots. The precise increase cannot be calculated without the exact 2022 count.

2024 vs. 2026: The 2024 presidential election had 695,250 early ballots at eight days out, compared with approximately 446,542 in 2026 at seven days out. That is 248,708 fewer ballots in 2026, or 35.8% lower than the reported 2024 total.

Important context

These figures combine mail voting and early in-person voting. They do not include Election Day voting.

David Flippo says his firing as a financial adviser two years ago was no big deal. “They did an investigation, not just the company, but FINRA, a federal investigation, they looked at all my transactions and everything,” Flippo, the GOP nominee in Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, argued in May. “They found nothing to discipline me for.” Rory McShane, his main campaign consultant, has been even more dismissive, claiming that “brokers and brokerages part ways all the time.”

Previously unreported documents obtained through public records requests provide new detail on Flippo’s 2024 firing by First Command, a company that largely serves military families and veterans. They show that Flippo was accused of making “willful misrepresentations and/or omissions of material fact to establish a client relationship using securities that First Command typically does not accept.” The company then conducted a surprise office visit, determined that he “violated numerous company policies,” and quickly fired him. 

13 of 30 (skipping current gov) NV governors served only a single term in office

Make sure to get out and vote, Nevada!

With only Clark and Washoe having IPEV open today we have 9,386 voters at the polls today,
GOP-3,020
DEMS-4055
INDY- 2311

Current totals all Forms

Dems 58,012 -IPEV
Dems 96,754 mail

GOP 63,596 IPEV
GOP 72,912 mail

INDY 33,349 IPEV
INDY 63,682 mail

Grand totals as of 4pm Sunday

DEMS 154,766
GOP 136,508
INDY 97,031

Dems ahead of GOP 18,258

19.8% of all voters have voted (includes the 1.2% of those needing to be cured)
Last midterm turnout was 45.8%
Last general election was 65.8%

Last mid term in person election day was 21% (215K voters)
Last general 2024 in person election day was 17.8 % (264K voters)

I anticipate the mail in from Monday's delivery and Tuesday's delivery to be the big dump of votes. and then tapering off through the rest of the week until election day.

I deleted my previous post I made an error I read the table wrong.

Today's in person voting where the Democrats beat the Republicans by less than 1% roughly around 100 or so votes for the first time since in person early voting (ipev) had been going on.

But what we did learn is total votes right now mail in and ipev for Democrats and Republicans look like this

Rep

70.2k mail

64.7k Ipev

134.9k total

Dems

91.2k mail.

53.5k ipev

144.7k

Dems plus 10k

I will update this either late tonight or sometime tomorrow when I'm not on my phone where I can actually do the math without having to use my gigantic thumbs

KUNR's Lucia Starbuck interviews Mother Jones reporter Noah Lanard about Flippo's suspicious campaign finances.

​

I have included the references and minor explanation at the end for those who think i am pushing an agenda.

#TLDR gop is lagging in turnout.

The latest Nevada Secretary of State numbers through Friday, October 23, show an interesting shift in who's turning out to vote.

I compared the first seven days of early voting in the 2026 midterm election with the same point in the 2024 presidential election. The comparison includes both in-person early voting and returned mail ballots.

2026 Early Voting (through October 23)

Total participation: 342,748 voters

Democrats: ~134,840 (39.3%)

Republicans: ~121,840 (35.5%)

Nonpartisan/Other: ~86,065 (25.1%)

Democratic advantage: approximately 13,000 voters.

Now compare that with the same point in 2024:

2024 Early Voting (first seven days)

Total participation: approximately 479,436 voters

Republicans: 192,333 (40.1%)

Democrats: 168,607 (35.2%)

Nonpartisan/Other: 118,496 (24.7%)

Republican advantage: 23,726 voters.

What's changed?

In 2024, Republicans led Democrats by approximately 5 percentage points at this stage. In 2026, Democrats lead by approximately 4 points.

That's a swing of roughly 9 percentage points in the composition of early voters, measured by party registration.

Interestingly, Republicans are still leading in-person early voting in 2026. Democrats are making up the difference, and then some, through returned mail ballots.

What does this mean?

First, these are registered party affiliations, not votes for particular candidates. A registered Democrat doesn't necessarily vote Democratic, and the same applies to Republicans.

Second, approximately one-quarter of early voters are nonpartisan or affiliated with another party. We don't know how they're voting, and anyone claiming otherwise is guessing.

Third, comparing a presidential election with a midterm has obvious limitations. Overall participation is lower, and the electorate may be different.

But the reversal in party participation is measurable. At this point in 2024, Republicans were turning out at a higher rate relative to Democrats. This year, the opposite is happening.

Whether that translates into election victories remains to be seen. But if you're looking for evidence of a change in voter enthusiasm, the early participation numbers are worth watching.

Sources:

Nevada Secretary of State VIVID dashboard: https://www.nvsos.gov/vivid/

2024 comparison: Nevada Independent early-voting reporting, October 2024.

Note: 2026 party totals are approximate because the SOS dashboard rounds some cumulative figures. The comparison is aligned by days of early voting, not calendar date.

Here's my best guess at the vote totals so far.

My assumption is that two-thirds of independents will not vote of 3rd party candidates, with most of those votes going to Democrats. I'm splitting the remaining third between Republicans and third-party candidates.

Based on in-person early voting and accepted mail-in ballots as of yesterday, here's how I see it: (rounded off)

GOP: 56,000
Democrats: 92,000
Independents/Third Party: 8,000

Yes, yes, yes, I know it's all guesswork, but it's the framework that makes sense to me.