r/Connecticut • u/Eastern-Substance-61 • 58m ago
Politics A hypothetical Republican district in Connecticut requires extreme gerrymandering.
I was inspired by yesterday's post to see what it might take to actually create a Republican district in CT. The answer: extreme gerrymandering, and the seat wouldn't even be that safe. Every other seat would be unflippably blue. (Yes, the performative red/blue dichotomy is tiresome, but we're stuck with it. For now.)
There's a viral maga meme that "New England is gerrymandered" citing 40% Republican registration (which I didn't verify, and don't believe). Aside from New England not being a state, Connecticut is simply not gerrymandered. Massachusetts, the birthplace of gerrymandering, is also not gerrymandered. The fact is that any of the New England states that could even do this, would have to go very far out of its way to coddle these people, and none of them would be successful without gerrymandering.
The base map is from the NYT's "An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election," which I used to build out the "R" district first. Turnout in that contest was.. unpredictably uneven.. and so it may not fully represent each town, but close enough for this. I matched the boundaries to existing municipal borders to keep it relatively simple while getting the population division as close as possible. It worked.
But it only works in practice if you're deplorable.
| District | Population ('20) | Results (R - D) | Partisan Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 720,798 | 41.1% - 58.9% | 17.8% |
| 2 | 725,518 | 39.6% - 60.4% | 20.8% |
| 3 | 718,873 | 55.0% - 45.0% | 10.0% |
| 4 | 717,676 | 35.3% - 64.7% | 29.4% |
| 5 | 722,651 | 40.5% - 59.5% | 19.0% |
| Statewide: | 3,605,516 | 41.9% - 56.4% | 14.5% |
