Back again for the October Monetary Policy Review. It's an interim one so we don't get a new forecast this time.
This came as a surprise to me - we might see swap rates dip. Had a chart ready to go with 3%, which was more expected but hey, it certainly keeps things interesting.
RBNZ commentary from the media release:
- Split vote 4 to 3 to hold. 3 members pushed hard for the 0.25% increase that was widely expected by main bank economists
- YoY inflation expected to increase to 4.4% in December quarter reflecting current fuel prices (lag) but RBNZ focused on medium-term
- "The pass-through of the initial surge in global prices to domestic price categories has so far been less than previously assumed. Impacts on short-term pricing behaviour appear to have been contained and medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored."
- Further OCR hikes still very much on the table - "The Committee agreed that tighter monetary policy is likely to be required but remains conditional on the economic outlook." But higher global interest rates could drive a global downturn and "the global environment could shift abruptly" - which seems to have made them cautious about hiking rates today.
The underlying data:
- Q3 2026 CPI down 0.4% to 3.7% YoY from 4.1% in Q2. Heading in the right direction but still outside 1-3% RBNZ target band. Like before, global fuel price spikes and tradables inflation is driving this, with a weak NZD keeping imports expensive.
- Q2 2026 GDP was down 0.2% QoQ, and most recently has been 0.8% and 0.5%. Recovery is sluggish and fragile.
If you've got a home loan or going to get one, what do?
General thoughts same as last time basically:
- What does this mean for the timing of buying a home? if you’re buying a first home, it fits with your life goals and you’re borrowing within your means etc, then this is just noise. Prices are very regional but they’re probably not going to get lower, but likewise for many of the main centres they also aren’t going up fast (leaving Queenstown and the southland region aside...) either which means you don’t need to rush to get in. But if you want to buy, then I’d crack on when the right place comes up.
- If you’ve got the capacity and risk appetite to fix on the shorter end e.g. 1 year, then you don’t need to pay the large 'insurance premium' baked into the longer-term fixed rates. Buying any kind of certainty in this world is expensive. But you've got to have the buffer and/or cashflow to tolerate the handle the risk of rates going up sharply
- Because of the rise in wholesale rates through 2026, break fee quotes are usually coming in at zero. If you’re thinking of restructuring like getting/increasing an offset or revolver because you’ve got more savings but want to keep access to it while reducing your mortgage interest, then I wouldn’t assume you have to wait until the end of your fixed term. Get a break fee quote - it’s probably going to be zero or minimal. Same goes for looking at refinancing if you’re out of cashback clawback with your current lender.
Also shout out to [u/ionlyeatplankton](u/ionlyeatplankton) for the link in my previous post to this IMF article suggesting that inflation targeting doesn't even work: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-09/imf-economists-inflation-targeting-performance-after-2022/105975542.
Edit: Oh lord look at our exchange rate go. Exporters will be happy but I hope no one was planning a European christmas.
General thoughts no crystal balls etc.