r/GoNets • u/SimilarLavishness874 • Feb 18 '25
Rant We’re going to be fine
I typically like the locked on nets guys but their latest video to me is way off base. This idea that the nets are “messing up their tank” that’s going around social media is kind of an exaggeration. Yes historically picking towards that top 3/4 picks means you’re more likely to draft an all star. But I think what people are often missing is that it really comes down a lot to how good the GM is at drafting and how well the coaching staff is at developing players. There’s a reason why most top 5 picks in the last 25yrs or so haven’t led their teams to titles that drafted them. Think about how many blown picks the pistons had before recently or the pelicans or hornets. Or even how the Cavs ruined much of lebrons early yrs or how the sixers process flipped due to poor team building and leadership/coaching. I’d love to get the first pick in this draft but I’m not going to freak out if we’re picking 6th or 7th. I think our GM knows how to find talent and we’ll be fine. What do you guys think? I linked the video there too if anyone wants to check it out
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u/TheRealCheddarBob Feb 18 '25
Doug’s gripes in that video were really an extension of his recent back and forth with the anti-tank fans on Twitter. He laid out a pretty solid justification for his thoughts there.
Essentially he’s much more persuaded by actual data over large samples rather than fans pointing to rare outliers of late picks turning into studs as justification for what our future moves should be
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
My argument has nothing to do with outliers. Also the same data shows that only 24% of nba champions over the last quarter century were led by top 5 picks drafted by their own team. Yea everyone would love to get the first overall pick but the nets falling in odds isn’t due to poor management and misguided goals it’s simply due to players over performing. This recent hot stretch we’ve been on has been spurred by young players and journeymen. Even Dennis Schroeder playing like a borderline all star was unprecedented. You can’t sit down and claim that’s bad management. Especially with these new odds it’s not like the old days where the worst record had 1000% better odds at getting first than the 7th pick. Now it’s only 180% better odds. That’s drastic. No offense to Doug or anyone else but when you’re betting with those numbers you can’t fault the front office especially when the reasoning for falling lower is young players doing well
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u/TheRealCheddarBob Feb 18 '25
The thought process though is that at some point we’re going to need to acquire a top 10 player in the league in order to really become a contender. Doing that through the draft is by far the most cost-effective way to so, but it becomes increasingly hard to do so the further we drop in the draft.
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
In the last 25 yrs only lebron, AD, Dwight Howard, and Derrick rose have been top 10 players in the nba who were picked first overall. More than likely no one in this draft will end up being a top 10 player. If we’re going strictly on the numbers it simply isn’t likely
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u/Bigbadbuck Feb 18 '25 edited Feb 18 '25
The issue isn’t that we’re picking 6-7 (btw look at draft odds right now we hve a decent shot at picking 8-9). It’s that we’re doing so while having one of the worst long term rosters in the league. We don’t have one cornerstone player, which is ok but then we also don’t have the benefit of a top pick.
We’ve put ourselves into no man’s land like the bulls without elite young talent or top pick capital. Or Utah. Utah is a better comparison, overachieve with vets two years ago and has wasted two years being bad without any top end draft capital and a bunch of old vets on the team.
Our draft picks are also overrated. We have the Knicks picks and one suns swap. Yes that’s very valuable but they won’t pay dividends for years.
Fans just wanted us to actually bottom out for once and build a home grown star. Ownership seems to want to take the easy way out again and build through trades and free agency
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
The bulls most recent draft picks were at 11 and 18. They were playin level team holding onto older borderline all star players. Their miscues in 2020 goes back to what I said about poor drafting and management. They had the 4th pick and missed on guys like Haliburton, avdija, and Maxey. Lastly the wins from this team recently are due to young players. Saying we don’t have valuable young pieces makes little sense when it’s the play of those guys that have spurred us to overperform this season. So again the panic is misguided and unnecessary
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u/Bigbadbuck Feb 18 '25
Those young players are all just role players at best and over achieving. We have no real talent on the team , just a bunch of decent role playing young guys like Zaire, Dayron, claxton , watford. Those players are solid next to a star but we have no way to get that star.
Maybe a better comparison is Utah, they picked 7-10 the last two years
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
How do we have no way to get a star? Are we not picking high in the draft this yr and presumably again next yr? Do we not have tons of assets to make trades and cap flexibility? What are talking about
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u/Bigbadbuck Feb 18 '25
Our chances are lower than if we were the wizards or pelican.
Please tell me what cap flexibility is going to get us in terms of stars. No real fans want another washed or aging stars
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u/xjoke4 Feb 18 '25
Heading into the season landing outside of the top 3 would’ve been considered a disappointment, landing outside of the top 5 would’ve been a failure - we’d be lucky to land inside of the top 7 at this rate. Still holding out on the hope that these odds land in our favor, but the more I see us drop in the standings, the less optimism I feel about it.
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
Sure without context tho. I don’t think anyone expected Jordi to be this good of a HC
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u/Relative_Airline_354 Feb 18 '25
You play terrible and lose games and people will call us a joke and intentionally tanking etc but when we do win, we get berated by fans cuz it messes up our tank.
There’s no pleasing everybody. I’m okay where we are. We may end up getting a top 3 pick.
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u/mharri05 Feb 18 '25
Maybe. But the bottom line is Marks is failing to do what HE wanted to do in trading the phoenix/dallas picks for our picks back.
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
How is he failing to do that? We haven’t even drafted anyone yet
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u/mharri05 Feb 18 '25
His objective when he traded the picks was to lose games this year and put the team in a position to draft one of the top players available.
So we could get lucky and spike the top pick against odds, or we can hit on a superstar with pick 11, but that wasn't his goal when he made the trade.
His goal at the time was to give the team the best chance possible for the #1 pick. He is failing to do that.
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u/BKtoDuval Feb 18 '25
Is he playing though? I keep hearing that argument, but A, we were never going to be bottom 3 bad and B, much of the roster is G Leaguers and castoffs. It's a testament to good coaching. This roster should be a high lottery team but they're overachieving.
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u/aSithLawwd Feb 18 '25
This sub is losing its mind that people aren’t joining in their groupthink and it’s hilarious
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u/UnitedStateOfDenmark Feb 18 '25
I don’t think this post is fair to that episode.
If this season was supposed to be about tanking for a top pick, it’s ingenuous to suggest that it got “messed up”.
Now, as noted in the episode, that might not actually have been Marks plans. It may have just been what everyone expected based off the Rockets/Bridges trades.
Now to your other point, agreed having a good franchise is almost as important as landing the player itself. I have faith if we pick 6-9, that we’ll land a very solid player because I believe in Marks scouting ability and Jordi’s player development.
It would still be better if we landed a top 4 pick though, get the highest potential into the door with Jordi and it’s over for the league!
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u/Rell_826 Feb 18 '25
What have the Nets under Marks and Tsai shown you that they can not only draft a top talent but build around them? Sans the 7/11/13 seasons, the rosters have been non-competitive or have done enough to be a play-in caliber team which is what Tsai himself wants over a team that can win.
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Feb 18 '25
When have marks and tsai had a top 10 draft pick?
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u/GTR_11 Feb 18 '25
They never did. They bought a team with no draft capital or talent to talk about. They flipped everything within 3 year span. Their first rebuild was successful to a degree, they did get KD and Kyrie.
This is the first time they going into rebuild with war chest.
We beating on the dead horse. Some posters just love to be miserable. Just don't allow them affect your stand. Nothing they say hold water. Lottery is rigged and filled with narrative. Nets only 3.5 games behind 5th seed. With 8th hardest schedule remaining. Craptors have the easiest schedule with full roster plus Ingram eventually. We not good enough talent wise to win more games than Craptors, Philthy and Bulls. That's just a fact. They will win more games.
What FO doing is actually strengthening their narrative status. Good coach, big market, WNBA Chip, stable environment etc will help come Lottery day.
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u/BKtoDuval Feb 18 '25
I agree that I'm not terribly concerned. But I think all this bickering back and forth is kinda pointless until the draft lottery takes place. Everyone is screaming about our future and the lottery but every year teams jump into the top few picks. Last year two teams with 30+ wins did. We were never gonna be a bottom four team.
Everyone just chill until the lottery takes place, then express the rage. The Heat always seem to find guys to fit their system and culture, no matter where they pick. We could be that too.
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u/Renzel0311 Feb 18 '25
Don’t even bother to watch those guys, constantly tweet in sarcasm, they give off as they cover the nets for a check rather than actually like the team, same with some of the rest “locked on” team
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u/SecretSportsAccount Feb 18 '25
People need to relax. I had hoped our fanbase would relax during the rebuild, but people keep freaking out over nothing. In addition to what you said, this is also a deep draft with 7/8 players I think have serious all-star potential. People need to stop jumping to the worst-case scenario every time something doesn’t happen exactly as they wanted.