If we include the Fever and Liberty in a discussion about which lower seed is most likely to pull off an upset, of course most people are going to pick one of them. They're not really underdogs. They just happen to be bottom-four playoff teams in the standings right now. The other playoff teams below them aren't really worth discussing in this context either.
That leaves the two genuine underdog teams: the Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings. Forget the specific matchups for a minute. If you had to pick one of these two teams to beat a clearly superior opponent twice in a three-game series, which one would you trust more? Here's our take:
Starting lineups
Mystics projected starters: Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen, Michaela Onyenwere, Sonia Citron, Georgia Amoore
Wings projected starters: Jessica Shepard, Alanna Smith, Awak Kuier, Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers
Assuming Alanna can play and Paige is mostly healthy, this one easily goes to the Wings. The only thing I'd check in the Mystics' column might be chemistry. Washington clearly plays better defense, but Dallas plays even better offense. At least as far as the starters are concerned.
Advantage: Wings
Roster depth
And the scale immediately tips the other way. The Mystic's bench is young but more talented than the Wings'. There's actually some very interesting matchups to be found here (if they were playing heads up):
- Betnijah Laney-Hamilton vs Alysha Clark: the battle-tested veterans. BLH has substantially more left as an on-court contributor at this stage, while both bring championship experience. BLH has 26 career playoff games and started throughout New York's 2024 championship run.
- Aziaha James vs Cotie McMahon: two aggressive young perimeter players. Aziaha has been particularly impressive defensively this year, while Cotie gives Washington a physical downhill attacker.
- Lauren Betts vs. Li Yueru: this is where Washington really starts separating itself for me. Betts is already giving Washington 6.4 points and 4.4 rebounds in only 17.1 minutes, and there is obvious upside beyond her current role.
- The rest is really fillers vs. fillers. Not to downplay the occasional contributions those remaining players make but they don't tip the scales here in any way.
Advantage: Mystics
Playoff experience
Both teams have practically none beyond the battle-tested vets we mentioned earlier. Nothing to see here.
Coaching
Obviously, I give more weight to starting lineup quality than bench quality, so this isn't completely a tie-breaker in the "all else being equal" sense. But it's a tie-breaker for me because Washington's coach has led this ridiculously young team to the playoffs, while the other coach seems to weigh his team down more than build it up.
Coach Jose seems to have gotten over himself a little and is now more willing to adapt his scheme to his players, instead of just berating them for not completely molding themselves to his scheme, whatever that's been. That's progress, but it's not enough to erase what we've seen over the course of the season. And it's not enough to give us confidence he'll be able to make the even tougher necessary adjustments in the playoffs.
I've made it clear I really, really, really dislike Sydney Johnson the GM. But I might equally like Sydney Johnson the coach. The Mystics are talented but a less-qualified coach (I just mentioned him) could've easily led such a young team in the wrong direction.
Big advantage: Mystics
The outcome of WNBA games is so heavily impacted by the performance of star players that all of this could easily end up being worth no more than a squirt of Pabst. But if you could pick one of these teams to play in the first round, you should definitely pick the Wings. The Mystics' coach makes them more dangerous.