Historical data shows a 6.0% median return in the 60 trading days after Alphabet breaks this level, but we’re already down 4.3% in just 4 sessions. Q3 earnings drop after market close today—Google Cloud’s growth, search ad stability, and CapEx payoff are all on the line. Is this a dip to buy, or wait it out?

I see a fair amount of good-ish news and there's still enthusiasm, but I'm starting to wonder....

Does anyone else have the same experience. Do you think the stock could rebound?

How far away are we from actually seeing electric air taxis carrying passengers? I've been looking at a few companies working on them and came across Vertical Aerospace ($EVTL), which is developing an aircraft designed to carry passengers on shorter trips. American Airlines and Japan Airlines are among the names attached to its roughly 1,500 pre-orders, although those aren't guaranteed sales.

One thing that caught my attention was their testing at Farnborough, where they demonstrated their aircraft switching between vertical and forward flight on five consecutive days. A second prototype has since completed similar testing. The company has also been working on a hybrid version that could travel farther than its fully electric model.

I'm curious how much of an advantage these flight tests actually give Vertical when other companies are working toward the same goal. Getting approval to carry passengers is still years away, so I'd be interested to hear whether people following this industry think $EVTL is keeping up or falling behind

Alphabet reports its Q3 2026 earnings on October 28, after the market closes.

I've spent hours examining Google's latest financial reports, analyst expectations, historical earnings, AI investments and business performance.

My conclusion?

I expect Google to beat earnings expectations. But there's one number that could turn an excellent quarter into a disappointment.

And it isn't the earnings per share.

Here's my analysis.

1. Google's $200 Billion AI Gamble

For years, Google had an incredibly powerful business model.

People search for something. Businesses pay Google to advertise. Google makes billions.

YouTube adds another enormous advertising business.

But artificial intelligence is changing everything.

People can now ask AI assistants questions instead of using traditional search engines.

This creates a serious challenge for Google's most profitable business.

Google's response?

Invest massively in AI, cloud computing, data centers and its Gemini technology.

Alphabet expects capital spending of approximately $195 billion to $205 billion in 2026.

That's an extraordinary amount of money.

The question is simple:

Will Google's AI investments generate enough additional profits to justify the spending?

2. The Cloud Explosion

Here's why I'm optimistic.

Google Cloud has become one of Alphabet's most important growth engines.

Last quarter:

• Google Cloud revenue: $24.8 billion
• Revenue growth: +82%
• Google Search revenue growth: +17%
• YouTube advertising growth: +13%
• Total Alphabet revenue: $119.8 billion (+24%)

That's impressive growth for one of the world's largest technology companies.

But there's a twist.

According to current market estimates, Google Cloud is expected to grow by approximately 95% this quarter.

Think about that.

A company could grow its Cloud business by 85%, which would normally be incredible, and still disappoint Wall Street.

That's the earnings trap I'm watching.

3. My Predictions vs. Wall Street

Here are my base-case forecasts for Q3 2026.

My forecast implies:

Revenue: approximately 0.9% above expectations.

EPS: approximately 2.3% above expectations.

Google Cloud: slightly faster growth than the already demanding market forecast.

These are my forecast assumptions, not reported results.

I expect Google to deliver a solid quarter, but not necessarily a spectacular surprise.

And that distinction matters for the stock.

4. My Earnings Probability Model

Based on my analysis of historical results, business trends and current expectations, here are my four scenarios:

VERY STRONG RESULTS — 21%

EPS beats consensus by more than 10%.

GOOD RESULTS — 70%

EPS beats consensus by 2–10%.

IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS — 6%

EPS comes within approximately 2% of consensus.

BELOW EXPECTATIONS — 3%

EPS misses consensus by more than 2%.

These probabilities reflect my scenario model, not guaranteed outcomes or probabilities of a stock-price increase.

My main expectation is a modest earnings beat.

But the stock reaction is another question entirely.

5. The Hidden Problem With Google's Reported Profits

There's something investors need to understand before looking at the headline EPS.

In Q2 2026, Alphabet reported earnings of $9.11 per share.

Sounds extraordinary, right?

But its results included approximately $98 billion in gains on investments, primarily unrealized gains.

These are gains from the increased value of investments, not money earned by selling advertising or cloud services.

That's why I won't judge Google's underlying performance simply by looking at its reported net income.

I'll focus on operating performance, recurring earnings and how much money the core businesses generate.

A huge EPS number isn't automatically evidence of a stronger underlying business.

6. Three Things That Could Move the Stock

First: Google Cloud.

My forecast is 96% growth.

A result near or above that level would support the argument that demand for Google's AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong.

Second: Search advertising.

Google's traditional Search business remains enormously important.

If AI competitors are starting to affect advertising growth, investors will pay attention.

Third: AI spending and future guidance.

Alphabet is investing extraordinary amounts of money.

If management increases spending expectations without demonstrating improving returns, the market could react negatively.

In fact, after its previous earnings report, Alphabet's stock fell more than 7% in the following session despite strong revenue growth.

That tells us something important.

Great numbers don't guarantee a rising stock.

7. What the Options Market Is Telling Us

Options pricing suggests the stock could move approximately 6% in either direction around earnings.

That is not a prediction of whether the stock will rise or fall.

It shows how much volatility investors expect.

My scenarios:

Bullish case: Google beats expectations, Cloud growth approaches or exceeds my 96% forecast, and management reassures investors about AI spending.

Neutral case: Results beat estimates modestly, but management provides no major positive surprise.

Bearish case: Cloud growth disappoints, Search shows weakness, or investment spending exceeds expectations.

Even in the bullish case, valuation and broader market sentiment will influence the stock reaction.

8. My Final Verdict

I'm bullish on Google's underlying business.

Alphabet has several major advantages:

• An enormous advertising business.
• A rapidly expanding Cloud division.
• Its own AI models and computing infrastructure.
• Billions of users across Search, YouTube, Android and other products.

But the market is demanding more than simple growth.

My final prediction:

• Revenue: $129.00B
• EPS: $3.10
• Google Cloud growth: 96%
• Probability of beating EPS estimates by more than 2%: 91%

I expect Google to report better-than-expected earnings.

However, I'm more cautious about predicting a major post-earnings rally.

The biggest question isn't whether Google is growing.

It's whether the AI boom is generating enough returns to justify its enormous cost.

And that brings me to my question for Reddit:

Would you rather see Google Cloud grow 100% with higher AI spending, or grow 85% while improving margins and generating more cash?

I'm curious to hear both bullish and bearish arguments before earnings.

Looks like GCTS was bottomed out. Follows NBIS and will hit 4$ within a year. Not to late to jump in. Dont say I didnt tell you

SoFi just reported one of the strongest quarters in its history.

Revenue up 44%. Profits up 73%. The stock jumped 13.4% in a single day.

And after going through the earnings report, the balance sheet, and the company's 2027 projections, I came to a conclusion that probably won't be popular here.

I love what SoFi is building. I'm just not convinced I love the price investors are paying for it.

Let me explain.

First, give SoFi credit. These numbers are impressive.

Yesterday's Q3 results were genuinely strong.

• Revenue: $1.39 billion, up 44%.
• Net income: $241 million, up 73%.
• Earnings per share: $0.18, versus $0.11 a year ago.
• Members: 17.1 million, up 35%.
• Customer deposits: $51.3 billion.
• Fee-based revenue: $571 million, now 42% of total revenue.

But the number that caught my attention wasn't revenue or earnings.

It was 51%.

More than half of SoFi's new products were opened by people who were already customers.

Think about what that means.

Someone opens a savings account. A few months later, they refinance a loan. Then they start investing. Maybe they get a credit card.

SoFi doesn't have to acquire a completely new customer every time it sells another product.

That's a powerful business model.

And it's exactly the kind of thing Peter Lynch would have wanted investors to understand: what's actually driving the growth, and can the company keep doing it?

So far, SoFi is delivering.

Then I looked at the price.

Here's where my enthusiasm started to fade.

At yesterday's closing price of $16.40, SoFi is trading at roughly:

• 32 times my estimate of normalized trailing earnings.
• 2.2 times tangible book value.
• 18 times management's projected 2027 earnings.

That last number matters.

Management expects $0.90 in earnings per share next year, compared with its $0.61 target for 2026.

If SoFi delivers that, paying $16.40 today doesn't look outrageous.

I understand why people are bullish.

But there's a difference between paying for earnings a company has already produced and paying for earnings management expects to produce.

And with banks, I pay particular attention to something else.

How much profit does the company generate from the capital shareholders have invested?

SoFi currently earns approximately 10% on tangible common equity.

Meanwhile, investors are paying more than twice that tangible equity to own the stock.

That's a pretty demanding combination.

Management believes it can eventually achieve returns of 20% to 30%. If that happens, today's valuation could look cheap in hindsight.

But we're not there yet.

And that's where Benjamin Graham's approach changes how I look at this investment.

I don't just ask whether the company has a great future.

I ask how much of that future I'm already paying for.

The three things that still bother me

1. Consumer lending isn't risk-free.

SoFi originated $12.6 billion in personal loans during the quarter.

Credit performance currently looks healthy, with annualized personal-loan losses around 3.4%.

But lending is cyclical.

If unemployment increases and borrowers struggle to make payments, the same loan portfolio generating attractive profits today could become a serious problem.

Strong growth doesn't eliminate credit risk.

2. Shareholders have experienced dilution.

According to my analysis, SoFi's share count increased approximately 7.6% over the past year.

That matters because owning a growing company isn't enough if your percentage ownership keeps shrinking.

The good news? Management says its 2027 growth plans won't require another capital raise.

I want to see that commitment reflected in the numbers.

3. SoFi still needs to prove it deserves a premium valuation.

There's an enormous difference between a fast-growing digital bank and a high-margin financial technology platform.

SoFi wants to become the second one.

And I can see why.

Fee-based revenue is already 42% of the business. That's encouraging.

But until returns on capital improve substantially, I'm reluctant to value SoFi as though the transformation is complete.

So what do I think $SOFI is actually worth?

I ran three scenarios using my Lynch-Graham approach.

My cautious scenario puts the stock around $8.40 in five years.

My central scenario lands around $20.

My optimistic scenario reaches approximately $33.

These aren't Wall Street price targets. They're my estimates, based on different assumptions about growth, profitability and the valuation investors will be willing to pay.

Here's what bothers me.

If my central scenario is correct, buying at $16.40 and selling around $20 in five years produces only about 4% annualized returns.

That's not particularly attractive compensation for the risks of a consumer lender.

Could my model be too conservative? Absolutely.

If SoFi achieves sustainable returns on tangible equity above 15%, continues expanding its fee-based businesses, and stops materially diluting shareholders, I'd have a reason to revise my valuation upward.

But today, my conservative margin-of-safety entry price is approximately $8.40.

I'm not predicting the stock will collapse to that level. It's simply the price at which my own model offers enough protection against things going wrong.

And yes, I know that sounds extremely bearish after a quarter like this.

But I'm not bearish on the business.

I'm cautious about the valuation.

My final take

I think Anthony Noto is building something impressive.

Seventeen million members. More products per customer. Growing deposits. Rising profitability. A credible path toward a much larger financial platform.

There's a real business here.

And I wouldn't be surprised if SoFi becomes significantly more profitable over the next five years.

But a great company and a great investment are not automatically the same thing.

Peter Lynch taught me to appreciate growth.

Benjamin Graham taught me to care about the price.

I'm trying to apply both.

So here's the question I'd genuinely like to hear the bulls answer:

If SoFi is earning roughly 10% on tangible equity today, what makes you comfortable paying 2.2 times tangible book value?

Are you investing in the bank SoFi is today, or the financial technology giant you believe it will become?

Because the answer makes a huge difference to what $SOFI is worth.

Sources: SoFi Q3 2026 earnings release (October 27), management earnings call, and my own valuation calculations. All prices and valuations use the October 27 closing price.

**Drop your high-conviction stock picks below:**

* 📈 **The Swing Trade:** What stock are you buying today to hold for the next few weeks?

* 🚀 **The Underdog:** What small-cap or hidden gem is about to explode?

* 📰 **The Catalyst:** Earnings, buyouts, new tech—what news are you trading today?

they just announced that it will release on November 17. Earlier this month, HUYA was named to Barron and Forbes China, recognizing its use of AI and technology. The potential case is that expanding services gives them additional revenue sources. In the Q3 report, I'd follow on revenue mix, margins and cash flow. Growth in a newer segment takes time to build an empire. Would you consider them before earnings or wait after earnings?

Tired of being a bad holder these two. Is there any hope I bought when they were high last year

Something that gets overlooked with small cap momentum stocks is how different a contract announcement can be from actual revenue.

Imagine a company worth $400M announcing a potential $200M multiyear contract. The headline sounds massive and the stock immediately starts running. But if that agreement depends on future purchase orders, requires significant upfront spending or has pretty thin margins, the actual financial benefit could be much smaller than expected.

And if the company needs to issue more shares to finance the work, existing shareholders might get diluted along the way. Even on moon, where you can wager on short term stock price movements without owning shares, a headline driven spike can reverse quickly enough to hit a leveraged position's bust price.

The announcement might be genuinely positive for the business while still creating a terrible entry for traders chasing the initial move. Feels like contract funding, expected margins and the company's cash position deserve more attention than the headline dollar amount.

Big contracts don't automatically translate into big shareholder returns.

Should I sell my jio ipo how are you looking it , it had already given the profit of 21 percent ?

With the Fed decision today and big tech earnings coming up, are you bullish or bearish heading into the next few sessions?

Are you buying dips, looking for options setups, or waiting for the market to show its hand?

What’s on your watchlist this week? Drop your tickers and trading strategy below! 👇

This is always insane to me:

$1,000 invested 10 years ago into Tesla is worth $30,567 today

https://heystockbuddy.com/invested/TSLA

What's going to be worth 30x in 10 years?

AMSC had nice rally. EVGO back from the dead. FIX nice 2 day recovery.

How about you? What made your day green?

Coca-Cola beat on both revenue and profit, and raised full-year guidance for the third time this year.

1、Third-quarter organic revenue grew 7%, clearly better than expected. Unit case volume grew 5% for a second consecutive quarter — sales didn’t fall off a cliff after the World Cup. But the growth engine has shifted from North America, where volume was roughly flat, to emerging markets such as India, China and Mexico. Price and mix grew only 1%, mainly diluted by a higher share from lower-priced emerging markets; pricing within individual regions isn’t weak.

2、By category, Coke Zero Sugar held 16% growth and grew in every region, with sparkling overall accelerating again. Sports drinks declined slightly, coffee and tea were flat, and the decline in North American still beverages was the main drag.

3、Gross margin expanded noticeably, and operating margin still improved despite heavier marketing spending. EPS grew 11%.

4、Full-year organic growth guidance was raised to at least 5% and comparable EPS growth to at least 11%. Note that the revenue drag from divesting the Africa bottling business is larger than expected — about 8%, against the 5–6% the market had assumed.

Incredible momentum across the board today. The dip buyers showed up in full force.

🧭 Where we closed:

• SPY: $770.77 (🟢 +0.7055%)
• QQQ: $722.46 (🟢 +1.4406%)
• VIX: $17.34 (✅ Cooling)

🔥 The Movers:

🚀 Top Gainers: * SES | $Price: 0.81 (Change: 26.71%) * JBLU | $Price: 2.82 (Change: 18.89%) * TE | $Price: 2.47 (Change: 16.74%)

📉 Top Losers: * BA | $Price: 167.59 (Change: -11.00%) * SNAP | $Price: 6.11 (Change: -3.63%)

🌊 Volume Leaders: * SOFI | $Price: 16.42 (Change: 13.59%) * SPCX | $Price: 149.57 (Change: 1.82%) * INTC | $Price: 93.91 (Change: 3.80%)

💬 If you had to pick one ticker to swing into next session, what is it?

📖 Trying to figure out next day's play? Use free AI powered institutional flow, max pain levels, and breakout scanners for the after-hours session. Check the live data here.

Previous informational post from 8 days ago (note the ready-to-ship vials stocking level):

NRx Pharmaceuticals (NRXP) - Great news again! Today's PR is essentially final confirmation needed for an FDA approval letter on "OR PRIOR TO" the FDA's Nov 10 GDUFA decision date for the KETAFREE ANDA. : r/Shortsqueeze

NRXP short interest, October 15, 2026 settlement (MarketBeat):

• Shares short: 9,949,938, up 1.6% from 9,793,940 on September 30
• % of float: 24.55%
• Days to cover: 16.8, based on about 1.04M average daily volume
• Dollar value short: $26.96M at a $2.71 price on the report date

Recent trend:

**Drop your high-conviction stock picks below:**

* 📈 **The Swing Trade:** What stock are you buying today to hold for the next few weeks?

* 🚀 **The Underdog:** What small-cap or hidden gem is about to explode?

* 📰 **The Catalyst:** Earnings, buyouts, new tech—what news are you trading today?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

Last month, I moved all my money into defensive stocks when I noticed the Tech Sector beginning correct. Do you think the correction is over? I miss having companies like Sandisk, Micron, Marvell, and Seagate within my portfolio. But I don't want to catch a 'falling knife' if you know what I mean.

Knicks now trading under this symbol

Micron Technology

Tesla

MaxLinear

Advanced Micro Devices

SanDisk

Seagate Technology

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

Broadcom

Alphabet Inc. (Class C shares)

Amazon

I’m looking beyond NVDA. Name one AI stock you’d buy today and briefly explain your catalyst and the biggest risk. Is it a short-term trade or a long-term hold?