A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days

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"(Paraphrased from NOAA SWPC's recent forecast discussion)

https://www.spaceweather.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Very low activity: a few B-class flares from Region 4560 near the west limb. Two CMEs off the NE limb aren't expected at Earth; no Earth-directed CMEs.

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3mypomqxuuj2x

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Solar wind was calm, slowing to ~350 km/s with no real southward Bz, and Earth stayed quiet. A small negative-polarity coronal hole stream plus possible glancing blows from Oct 21 CMEs could bring active conditions (Kp 4), maybe G1 (Kp 5), today. Quiet to unsettled Oct 26-27.

The fast solar wind from a negative polarity coronal hole is expected to reach Earth soon. Inside the fast wind, the Bz tends to swing north and south, which can bring several rounds of substorms at high latitudes.

images

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3mypomt4twu2j

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Both Suns are from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. The yellow Sun is visible light, with sunspot regions labeled with NOAA's flare chances, and the purple Sun is extreme ultraviolet, with coronal holes outlined in green.

images

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3mypomundqj2a

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Here is how AR 4560 (highest flare chances) evolved over the last 24 hours, in visible light (top) and the magnetic field (bottom).

video

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3myponafntk2d"

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Kp is a 3-hour average of activity around the globe, so NOAA's Kp forecast can miss short substorms. Use real-time tools to catch them.

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3myponbhqiu23

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Sources

TEXT FROM: Vincent Ledvina

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3mypomqxuuj2x

SpaceWeatherLive

https://bsky.app/profile/spaceweatherlive.com/post/3myqzwv5t5z26

photo

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/

A stealthy solar storm launches between fast wind streams which helps aurora photographers. Radio & GPS users get a short break from radio blackouts. Learn the details in the new SpaceWeatherWoman forecast: https://www.patreon.com/SpaceWeatherWoman/posts/stealthy-storm-173058797 (no paywall + graphics and blog)​

Dr Tamitha Skov

https://bsky.app/profile/tamithaskov.bsky.social/post/3myksmldtko2z

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Credit video: ​Marko Rummelsburg with Jhelioviewer

https://bsky.app/profile/markorummelsburg.bsky.social/post/3mylcpud6as2e

Magnetic field lines lost reconnection and high energy particles stream out on a boosted solar wind ejecting mass from the Sun and compressing the Earth's magnetosphere

Credit Marko Rummelsburg

https://bsky.app/profile/markorummelsburg.bsky.social/post/3mxvznzllvs2d

Vincent Ledvina

https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3mxw5mqeiok2f

photo

https://solarham.com/pictures/2026/oct14_2026_e.jpg

https://solarham.com/

Videos from https://www.spaceweather.gov/products/goes-solar-ultraviolet-imager-suvi

Another large filament eruption from behind the eastern limb of Sun 15.10.26

Videos https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation?satellite=suvi-goes-19&end_datetime=2026288_0258&n_images=200&coverage=sun&channel=HE303

And https://www.spaceweather.gov/products/goes-solar-ultraviolet-imager-suvi