Calculated Risk

[u/HalfLungJ]

[u/beefpelicanporkstork]

If you use this during an opponent's upkeep and it works, you end their turn, get your bonus turn, then get your regular turn after that. Is that the intent here?

[u/HalfLungJ → u/beefpelicanporkstork]

Yes. Do you think it’s too strong?

Edit: you can also use it during your turn but that’s niche

[u/elusive-rooster]

I kinda wanted there to be more risk. In fact, with this, the lower the risk, the higher the reward. The less mana I risk the better the rate for the extra turn is.

[u/HalfLungJ → u/elusive-rooster]

Would you say it’s a calculated risk?

[u/Saberkatt1]

Where’s the risk? (Other than it whiffing). What if, iif it does not fall within X then it deals the roll - X to you?

[u/HalfLungJ → u/Saberkatt1]

The intended risk was it whiffing but that’s a great idea

[u/Shadourow]

I cast Calculated risk with X = 5

I choose 20

The risk I took was calculated but oh god...

[u/doctrgiggles → u/Shadourow]

You can actually pick 25 if you want to live on the edge

[u/Mcgarvey]

Would put this on isochron scepter and pull some untapping shenanigans to just copy it over and over again to try and perfectly guess the number because X will be 0

[u/Bashtoe]

I think without ending the turn it's fine. Or as a sorcery so you have to work to get the triple turn. Otherwise its an incredibly unfun card in casual commander.

[u/zzgamer11 → u/Bashtoe]

You don't want to end your opponent's turn in their upkeep for 1 mana? I can't think of any toxic applications for an effect like that.

[u/RevCapnDanger]

To add more flavor, balance, and clarity in the verbiage: “Choose a number, then roll a d20. If the result is within X of the chosen number, end the turn and take an extra turn after this one. Otherwise, this spell deals X damage to you.”

This way, the more mana you pay, the higher the chance of success, but also the more spectacularly it blows up in your face if you get it wrong — thus forcing you to actually calculate the risk vs reward in any given situation.

Alternatively, you could have it do 20-X damage — which might actually be more fun, since if you cast it for X=0 and lose, it just blows up for 20 in your face.

[u/lesdommed]

question: is there any possible better number than just picking 10? wouldn’t you pick 10 every time?

[u/rob132]

What does the math say the optimal number of Mana is for this?

[u/Secretmongrel]

So, what are the actual odds here? “Within x” of the chosen number. So if x is 1. I choose a 10. I roll 11. That is within 1 of 10, so I win. Is that right?  1  3/20 2 5/20 3 7/20 4 9/20 5 11/20

So for 6 mana you get slightly better than a coin flip.  I guess you are casting this when you have 8 or 9 mana most of the time? 

Probably not actually good but a slap when it hits. 

[u/GeneralJPenguin]

Cool effect but often it will be like 7 mana do nothing which is unacceptable.

If you made it x and twice x like pay 5 get a 10 digit buffer then maybe but even then it’s quite the gamble to do nothing.

[u/Commercial-Wrangler5]

Choosing 10 or 11 since there's no 0 puts you squarely in the middle and your x value has the potentially to increase the most in each direction. If for example you chose 10 and cast it for x=5, then any dice value from 5-15 will give you an extra turn. You can choose 6 and get the same probability though of winning the turn. Roll modifiers only add to the roll though as far as im aware, so it might be better reworded to "if your roll is less than or equal to x, take an extra turn." Neat design though, dice rolling always ftw even if I hate extra turn mechanics

[u/Bumpyuncle272]

Should add a skip your next turn instead if it misses.

[u/GroundbreakingMonk76]

Maybe it should be XXU(R), since at XU(R) you can cover all the numbers with X=10 if you choose 10, not sure if that's the intention.

[u/HalfLungJ → u/GroundbreakingMonk76]

I think if you cast this for X=10 you deserve it

[u/PomegranateLeading92]

So i can spend a single blue or red mana to instantly end my opponents turn, with a free 1/20 chance to get an extra turn? This would go in every deck that happens to have blue or red no? Edit: nevermind, reading the card explains the card🤦‍♂️

[u/PartySquid2486 → u/PomegranateLeading92]

Nah, last bit says "... Take an extra turn. if you do, end the turn" so it only triggers if you get to take that extra turn

[u/teamdeadend]

1 mana end the turn is wild

[u/MaleficAdvent → u/teamdeadend]

The only way that happens is if you guess the 1/20 exactly. You gottapay more to up those odds, and if you can afford X=20 you're probably already winning.

[u/Less_Prior_6871]

1 mana, 5% chance to win the game. Im not sure how strong that actually is... but it doesnt sound fun