Hi there.

I own a gaming website which for the last 30 days has about 14 USD RPM.

At this stage, this could be my fulltime job. But it isn't, I still carry a day-to-day job, slowing my progress and growth. But I'm cautious, as I hear a lot about January drops.

What % drop in RPM do global gaming websites typically see between Q4 and Q1?

20%? 40%? 60%?

I'm specifically interested in AdX, global audience (let's say 35 % US), video games.

Is anyone here operating here for long enough to share this?

I have some context from a large European news site:

Q4 to Q1 from AdX: 17-24 % drop

December to January from AdX: 21-29 % drop.

If someone could estimate or provide their own numbers, I'd be infinitely more grateful and it would help me tremendously with insight to planning my life.

Of course, I need to take this with a grain of salt, I know how AdX works, but still, the ballpark of Q4 > Q1 drop interests me. My SSP gave only very vague prediction.

Thanks a lot.

in house growth lead at a home goods brand, around 9M a year in revenue. most of our spend is meta and google, roughly 120k a month between the two. leadership wants to test ctv in Q1 and i’ve been on calls with platforms for the past 3 weeksevery single one leads with identity resolution and household graphs. the match rates all sound amazing right up until you ask how they actually calculate them, then it gets vague real quick. one rep told me their match rate was “industry leading” 4 times in one call and never gave me a number lol
we got burned a couple years ago on display where the view through conversions looked incredible and then didnt line up with anything in our shopify data. so i’m pretty gun shy about trusting any platform’s own numbers on day one right now it’s between vibe and tvscientific. a buddy at another brand uses vibe, apparently it matches off household IPs and you can run it through haus if you want a proper incrementality read, which is partly why it’s on my list. havent gone deep on either yet

mostly want to hear how people running ctv actually check what the platform tells them. holdouts, matching against your own sales data, whatever you’ve found that works before you trust it enough to scale