The eminent Kartik on his Beyond the 90 substack just published rumors that up to FOUR USL-Championship clubs may self-relegate to USL League One BEFORE Pro-Rel is officially instituted (see link below, may be behind paywall). Of the four, only THE Miami FC is explicitly named. Interestingly, Birmingham and Monterey are NOT among the four considering self-relegation.

• Which other three clubs do we think may self-relegate?? Commenters suggest Sporting Jax, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, to save on roster and travel costs. These clubs also suffer from unstable and loss of a soccer specific stadium the club owns or controls. How about OAK?
• Do we think roster cost savings from USL-C to USL-1 are like from $1.5-2 million to $1 million or less?
• Will the self relegation of three Western USLC clubs finally allow the institution of a Western conference for USL1? This is much needed to reduce travel costs by up to $300,000 per season.

https://beyondthe90.substack.com/p/notebook-league-one-contractions

Overview

Monterey Bay’s fifth season in the league began with two points from nine matches. They scored five goals and conceded 18, leaving themselves little room for a slow recovery. The club parted ways with head coach Jordan Stewart on April 29 and appointed Alex Covelo as his replacement the same day. Covelo’s first match came against Tulsa on May 3. Even taking the lead offered no guarantee of relief. Ilijah Paul put them ahead in the 25th minute, but Jamie Webber’s penalty and Jeorgio Kocevski’s 57th-minute winner turned Covelo’s debut into another defeat.

A 4–3 USL Cup defeat at League One newcomers Athletic Club Boise was followed by the best league run of Monterey Bay’s season. They took 12 points from their next five matches, beating Birmingham, Loudoun and Jacksonville before recovering from a loss at Tulsa to defeat El Paso. Across that stretch they scored nine goals and conceded four. Riley Bidois supplied four of the goals, while Paul’s stoppage-time header against El Paso on June 20 secured a 1–0 win to cap the recovery.

The improvement did not last. Monterey Bay went twelve league matches without another win before a 2–1 comeback victory at Orange County on October 3 finally ended the drought. Defeats to New Mexico and Colorado Springs followed, then a 2–1 home win over Las Vegas gave the season a more encouraging finish. Those two late victories could not make up for the months between them and the early-summer recovery.

Monterey Bay finished last in the Western Conference and 23rd overall among the league’s 25 teams, with six wins, six draws and eighteen defeats. Four of those six wins had arrived in the five-match stretch from May 23 to June 20.

Best win

May 30, 2026 v Loudoun United FC

A week after finally earning their first league win, Monterey Bay gave the Cardinale Stadium crowd an emphatic follow-up, beating Loudoun 4–1. Riley Bidois opened the scoring in the fifth minute, and Wesley Leggett converted a rebound six minutes later. The early lead came from sustained attacking pressure: Monterey Bay took ten shots and created four big chances before halftime.

Loudoun’s response early in the second half brought the visitors back within one goal and gave Monterey Bay a test of their new-found momentum. Bidois restored the two-goal cushion from the penalty spot in the 62nd minute, then Chris-Kévin Nadje added the fourth in the 86th.

The chance totals supported the attacking display, with Monterey Bay creating 3.22 expected goals to Loudoun’s 1.58. It was their highest-scoring league performance of the season and their largest winning margin.

Worst loss

August 8, 2026 v New Mexico United

The 2–5 home defeat captured Monterey Bay’s problems at both ends of the pitch. They created 3.35 expected goals to New Mexico’s 1.84 and put eight of their 25 shots on target, but their attacking opportunities could not make up for a late defensive collapse.

After conceding in the sixth minute, Monterey Bay scored in the 31st and 55th minutes to take a 2–1 lead. They had recovered from another poor start and put themselves in position to end a league winless run stretching back to June 20. Instead, New Mexico responded with four unanswered goals in the final 15 minutes.

The chance totals made this more frustrating than a match in which Monterey Bay had offered little resistance. Their stats suggested enough attacking opportunity for a much better return, even if those figures alone could not explain the late collapse.

MVP

Ilijah Paul

Paul finished with five goals and six assists in 29 league appearances. His eleven combined goal contributions put him narrowly ahead of Sebastian Lletget’s seven goals and three assists. Lletget supplied more finishes, but Paul’s combination of scoring and creating gives him the edge here.

His contributions ran through Monterey Bay’s best spell. Paul recorded assists in the wins over Birmingham, Loudoun and Jacksonville. With the June 20 match still scoreless in stoppage time, he headed home in the 91st minute to secure a fourth victory in five league games.

There were useful contributions during the harder stretches, too. His equalizer at Oakland in August rescued a point, and he supplied assists at New Mexico on October 10 and against Las Vegas in the season finale.

What the season left behind

The five-match recovery in May and June showed that Monterey Bay could put a useful run together. Those games produced half of their 24 league points and four of their six wins. The rest of the schedule brought twelve points from twenty-five matches.

The imbalance began with the chances. Monterey Bay created 37.57 expected goals and allowed 56.83. Their 32 goals left some attacking chances unrewarded, but better finishing alone would not have repaired the gap. Opponents were generating substantially more danger across the season, and only four clean sheets meant the attack rarely had much protection from a quiet evening.

Eighteen points came at Cardinale Stadium and six on the road. The October comeback at Orange County was their only away league victory.

Paul’s new contract gave Monterey Bay an attacking contributor to carry into 2027, with Lletget’s scoring providing another positive part of the season. The final win over Las Vegas deserved its celebration, too. Yet Monterey Bay scored twice from chances worth 0.89 expected goals while allowing 2.21. The next step is to create more regularly, allow fewer dangerous opportunities, and give their better attacking moments a stronger foundation.

Historical perspective

Monterey Bay FC’s 24 points from 30 league matches amounted to 0.80000 points per game, the 39th-lowest return among 392 club-seasons from 2011 through 2026.

Final model rating

My model gives each team-season a rating out of 100 based on attacking and defensive output. It provides a common scale for comparisons across the archive.

Monterey Bay FC finished at 34.47 out of 100 after all thirty league games, 33rd-lowest among 289 completed team-seasons from 2017 through 2026. The nearby ratings below show where that performance sat on the same scale.

Team and player statistics

Team totals

Player contributions

Goalkeepers

Results

Sources

• Monterey Bay FC. Official match reports and news releases.
• OurSports Central. Reproduced club news releases.
• FBref. Match stats.
• FotMob. Match and player stats.
• American Soccer Analysis. xG and player stats.
• Monterey Bay FC official statistics. Club/Opta team, player and goalkeeping statistics where available.
• USL league records and standings. Historical regular-season standings.
• Inspiration “Ranking the Top 131 FBS Programs of the Last 40 Years.”

New United Soccer Lounge with John Morrissey.

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