The Osaka Major is near, so here's some fun stuff. Final Global Power Rankings heading into the Major. Finally figured out how all the seeding and what not works so I was able to simulate the tournament using Monte Carlo.
Monte Carlo basic definition: Monte Carlo simulation (also called Monte Carlo method or multiple probability simulation) is a probabilistic technique for estimating the likelihood of various results when inputs are uncertain. It works by running many simulated scenarios, each with random values drawn from defined probability distributions, and then aggregating the results to show a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities
Faze is firmly the favorite to win, and right behind them is 100 Thieves who had a very impressive NA stage. The championship share is pretty firmly between 4 teams who combine for 78.5% of the champion outcomes, will we see one of these 4 teams win or will it be someone else? I'm sure everyone has some disagreement of this so i'll start with mine, I do not think Weibo is currently a better than a few of the teams below them, however, their prior from being competitive and getting good wins in EWC, is still propping them up a good bit.
One thing I wanted to see is how each region stacked up in what maps they played and how good they are on it. Of course the attack and defense win rates are going to be a bit unreliable since its only within that region, so I think what maps each of the qualified teams played are better to see how each region can exploit the other. China only played bo3s so they're going to naturally have a big sample size across trhe board. Seems like the EU mains Border, NA has a big Villa share which is definitely something to look out for this major, and SA likes their Fortress.
My personal prediction is I think we see an EU team win the whole thing, Dplus and EP are bad, and that the CN teams will be surprisingly competitive in their third big event ever as a region.
