So ESPN went and did a rerank of the 2024 class top fifteen.

I like the list and mostly agree. Not sure I would put Jaloni below Edwards; they're both so good though. I would swap Olson above Swords. Go Ava Heiden!!!

Interesting that the Big Ten had 4 in the top 15 initially and in the rerank, the Big Ten has 8 of the top 15.

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/50010033/womens-college-basketball-recruiting-reranking-scnext-100-class-2024-sarah-strong-mikayla-blakes

I went to the Cal-UCLA exhibition today, and while I know this is a whole new roster, I think Cori Close definitely knows what she’s doing. Today they played the whole roster, and the contribution from the “bench” (which was really a bench in name only and not in minutes!) was spectacular. Every single player scored, and FIVE were in double figures! Lots of defensive hustle all around. Freshman Somto Okafor looks fantastic; and both Elina Aarnisalo and KK Branford look phenomenal to start the year—like they’re certainly in the right place!

Anyway… lots of media outlets and even Redditors have written off this team after the championship run, and I wouldn’t be so hasty! Of course they have lots of kinks to sort out still, but for a team that’s only just learning how to play together, they look great. And you’ve gotta love Close’s commitment to TEAM basketball!

I knew they adjusted them a few years back to the international rule, but aren’t they supposed to be the same on both ends? This is from Portland regional. Not an optical illusion, but I also didn’t get out on the floor to measure.

On Feb 16 2025, UConn and South Carolina squared off in Columbia SC, with UConn winning in a blowout: 87-58. UConn made 13 three pointers shooting 46%, and had 31 fast break points.

So Staley made adjustments for the championship. They would guard on the three point line. And they'd get back on defense to protect against the fast break.

It worked. UConn made just four of 17 three pointers, shooting under 25%. And they had just six fast break points. With their bread and butter burnt to a crisp, you'd expect UConn to lose badly.

Instead, UConn executed brilliantly in half court offensive sets. Spreading the floor, passing crisply, and driving the lane, the Huskies were able to score 36 points in the paint and shot 58% from within the arc. They had the edge in rebounds, pulling down 40 to SC's 36. And tenacious defense held SC to 34% shooting. In the end despite the completely different play style, the score of the championship game was nearly identical to the score two months earlier: 82-59 Connecticut.

Back with an update on my Preseason Top 25 since the AP released their ranking…

I have my thoughts of course but the best way I can express them is my sharing my own I suppose. I went thru all of your lovely (and not so lovely) comments about my list. I made sure to fix all the mistakes that were pointed out (thank you for that!!) and after hearing some of your takes and thinking about some other stuff throughout the summer I moved teams around.

Starting 5/Full 10 Player Rotation predictions for each team were also included again. All players with season ending injuries should be removed. If I missed one again I apologize but please let me know.

Each player will have information included next to their name such as: Height, Year, Recruiting Year and Rank, 2024-25 Stats, Former School, etc.

As for the recruiting ranks, they’re all highlighted in yellow and I used ESPN for every year except 2025. This year had other websites with public information on recruits so I just pulled the average ranking between ESPN, 247 Sports and On3….

So yeah once again, feel free to let me know if i’m right or wrong 😂 and also let me know if you have any questions or want to discuss or critique anything!

Back with some more NCAAW analysis since I’m getting impatient about next season lol…

In this document I’m predicting the starting lineups for each team in my Way Too Early Preseason Top 25 (and some honorable mentions as well.) I’ll also predict the next 5 players in their rotation making it a full 10 player rotation. Of course some teams really only use 8 players per game and other use more than 10 but i just kept it 10 for everyone.

Each player will have information included next to their name such as: Height, Year, Recruiting Year and Rank, 2024-25 Stats, Former School, etc.

As for the recruiting ranks, they’re all highlighted in yellow and I used ESPN for every year except 2025. This year had other websites with public information on recruits so I just pulled the average ranking between ESPN, 247 Sports and On3….

Besides all of that, I made a cute graphic for this because I got bored and thought I could make one that looks better than all the other sites. Feel free to let me know if i’m right or wrong 😂 and also let me know if you have any questions or want to discuss or critique anything. I’m not sensitive and love all kinds of feedback positive or negative :)

I have to believe Geno. Massive women’s fan but the 3pt shooting stats for elite 8 have been absurd. I have to believe there’s something wrong w the court. It’s upsetting because I wish we were watching better basketball.

#1 South Carolina 15

#2 UConn 9

#3 USC 12

#4 Duke 10

#5 Michigan 10

#6 Texas 11

#7 Louisville 8

#8 Vanderbilt 8

#9 LSU 9

#10 Iowa 10

#11 UCLA 13

#12 UNC 7

#13 Notre Dame 10

#14 UK 8

#15 TCU 4

#16 Washington 9

#17 Minnesota 8

#18 Ohio State 12

#19 Ole Miss 8

#20 Maryland 11

#21 Oklahoma 11

#22 Oklahoma State 5

#23 Illinois 8

#24 West Virgina 4

#25 NCSU 7

Azzi Fudd is less than 1% away from shooting a 50/50/100 split, with FG% being listed as 49.1%. Her free throws are perfect so far and 3PT% is 50.9% according to ESPN.

A 50/50/100 split has only been completed once, by NBA player Tony Snell. It has never been completed by a college athlete.

Of course, the whole country knows Azzi is a great shooter and is likely to win another MOP award this upcoming final four, and maybe even a #1 draft pick.

What people don’t know is that she’s on the road to the greatest shooting split ever by a college basketball player, male or female. Go Azzi!

Edit: her shooting after today’s game from 3 is 53%!

The McDAG game just hit halftime, so I thought this would be a good time to add this here. I’ll add my notes for the second half in the comments.

I’ve been taking notes on the players since the game started and here are the key findings:

Jerzey Robinson (South Carolina): very strong guard, makes aggressive takes to the basket, forces hard shots instead of making the easy one (which affects her shooting %), high usage!!!, expect a lot of foul trouble from her

Saniyah Hall (USC): high usage!!!!! (borderline selfish: played significant minutes and has passed the ball 2x at most), takes extremely contested shots while looking for the foul. has a lot of potential, but i’m not sure usc is the right system for example, dawn will correct Jerzey’s selfish moments, but Gottleib will like let Hall do whatever. Jazzy may end up with the short end of the stick because of how high usage Saniyah and Juju are.

Lizzy (Aaliyah) Speight (Texas): reminds me of Mia Pauldo in terms of style and ball handling. Good passer and good midrange—reminds me of Rori in that way

Oliviyah Edwards (Tennessee): Strong, can finish, a bit clumsy, and can shoot the midrange. Good at drawing fouls and making free throws. Good defender

Bella Flemmings: good shooter, good handles, can finish, solid defender, reminds me of a better Ashlon Jackson

Jacy Abii (ND): Very good defender—this will fit well with Hildalgo’s game. Lots of steals & points off steals, also had some blocks and good rebounds. Much better defensively than offensively

Lilly Williams (Mich. St): Good outside shooter, very mobile big (6’5”), and runs the floor well

Jordyn Jackson (MD): very good all around player with a lot of upside. She will be very beneficial for MD, just well rounded overall

Maddyn Greenway (Kentucky): took 2 charges in 1Q, good passer, versatile

Brihanna Crittendon (Tx): Lots of upside here. Very good rebounder & finisher, but has to work on not shuffling her feet

Kate Harping (UNC): quick player, didn’t see much of her due to a shoulder injury during the game (dislocated shoulder?). she has had some shoulder issues since middle school with labrum tears, so i’d be weary of that.

Olivia V. (Uconn): Can rebound but brings the ball down too much, causing jump balls. I want to see more of her in the second half

Addison Bjorn (Tx): runs the floor well and can finish.

Olivia Jones (Vandy): crafty player, looking to see more of her in the second half.

Autumn Fleary: started off a bit wonky, but had some good takes later in the half.

Jenica Lewis (ND): maybe the nerves are getting to her, but it just hasn’t been a great showing for her. Lots of bad shots, hopefully she can turn it around

Additional notes:

If I had to rank the performances so far: 1. Jordyn Jackson, 2. Jacy Abbi, 3. Bella Flemmings, 4. Brihanna Crittendon / Oliviyah Edwards, 5. Lizzy Speight

Also, the Texas crew (Speight, Crittendon, and Bjorn) look really good together.

For anyone watching, feel free to add additional pieces below. And for anyone not watching, feel free to ask questions!!

Was in a chat the other day and someone was wondering who would win freshman of the year. That really had me thinking. So I decided to go thru an analyze the top freshman based on stats, strength of schedule, usage rates, efficiency and many more variables. I also wanted to show prospect rankings from high school to show what we thought of each player before they got to the college level.

Let me know what you think, hope you all appreciate it :)

MCDAAG means they were nominated but not selected.

BPM = Box Plus Minus

in response to Dallas winning the draft lottery, many writers and analysts have responded with their take on how the draft should go.

13 updates, 6 new lists, and a couple new features added to help make this sheet a better resource.

the link to the database will be below. i also included pics of my individual draft board for those who are interested

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wmHdLu-XdBbUUxOADBs2caJ23EOyi2O_LUyyJ6-q-R0/edit?usp=drivesdk

let me know if you have any questions or any thoughts in general. hope you all enjoy!

This is a simple, mostly objective rating system that uses three criteria to forecast future performance:

• Last year’s Win Shares – taken from Basketball Reference
• Projected playing time – shown as % of total minutes so 70% would mean roughly 28 minutes per game. To protect against the prospect of possibly injury affecting the number, the highest any individual player is forecasted is 75% playing time.
• Multiplier based on age/years played – using a multiplier that stat people way more competent than me use (Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, etc) Here are the multiplier settings:
  • Year one – Year two: +40% (freshman to sophomore)
  • Year two – Year three: +15%
  • Year three – Years four/five: +10%
  • For transfers moving up from a non-Power 4 school, the multiplier is set at -20% based on historical data.
  • For Year one players based on 10-year research, Top 20ish players are given a blanket number of Win Shares that look roughly like: 50% playing time = 3 Win Shares. The higher the recruiting ranking, the higher the Win Shares.

Here are the definitions for the columns in the first slide:

• Last year’s Bart Torvik ranking is the first column.
• The next 4 columns are self-explanatory.
• “Min%-“ shows the % of last year’s total minutes that have left.
• Likewise, the next column shows the % of Win Shares that have left.
• “HGT” is the average height in inches of all players projected to play more than 10% of the team’s minutes. Research hints that taller teams, particularly teams that play taller players at the 4 & 5 slots, are better defensively.
• “AGE” is the average year of all players projected to play more than 10% of the minutes – “3” being what we used to refer to as a “Junior”. Teams with a higher number here tend to have less variance.
• “TALENT” is the average Top 100 recruiting ranking of the >10% players. The higher the number, the more top prospects on the roster.
• “Min %” shows the average playing time for the non-freshmen on the roster. Like the “AGE” column, the higher the number, the less variance in the projection.
• “PRPG!” shows the average Win Shares for the non-freshmen. Same variance argument here.
• The “WS+” & “WS-“ show the amount of non-freshman Win Shares returning & leaving the roster.

Since the playing time projections are my best guess, I’ve included each team’s roster showing playing time is included in the slides. My playing time projections are based on things like:

• Coach’s history – Shauna & Dawn have been shown to use very short benches, for example.
• Freshman & Transfer Hype / Position – Freshman bigs rarely play more than 50% of minutes & higher-rated prospects tend to play more. Also, high-profile transfers tend to get more minutes.
• Positional Balance – Teams that are heavy in the backcourt still need to play bigs. I try to balance this out.

Fresh off the coaches/media pre-season poll, I've included the projected Top 20 B1G players by Win Shares for fun. NOTE: Addy Brown in #21...

If you have a case for adjusting this number, please let me know & I’ll adjust the math to see the new totals in the comments here. Speaking of that, I’ll include the results that I got prior to last season in the comments as well.

And yes, I realize the Minnesota number will be controversial… Let's chop it up!

Following South Carolina women’s basketball's blowout loss to UCLA in the NCAA Tournament championship, Madina Okot has 48 hours to decide if she'll enter the 2026 WNBA Draft.

Okot is a senior, but South Carolina (36-4) and coach Dawn Staley have been fighting for another year for the 6-foot-6 center playing in the United States for just the second year.

She played her first two college seasons in Kenya.

As of April 4, they hadn't received an answer from the NCAA on Okot's waiver. Staley was not asked about the waiver's status on April 5 after the championship game.

The WNBA draft is April 13.

If the 79-51 blowout loss to the No. 1 seed Bruins (37-1) in the title game in Phoenix was her last time in a South Carolina uniform, it was an undesirable way for her college career to end.

Here are the four teams right on the cusp of hosting in my eyes. I have attached a spreadsheet with relevant statistics that the committee uses. There are likely only two spots up for grabs and four on the bubble. West Virginia is one of the four. Win and clinch. Lose and pray. The other three are in wait and see mode. Which of the four do you think has the best and second best resumes?

South Carolina plays 15 preseason Top 25 teams, the most by a distance. UCLA is next with 13. West Virginia and TCU play only 4, and No. 2 UConn has 16 games against teams outside last season’s top 75.

ESPN projections of the top impact transfers

Will be real interesting to see how accurate this ends up being.

Iowa State exits are THREE of the top FIVE. It will be interesting to see how they each fare on other teams.

1. Audi Crooks ISU to OKST
   
2. Addy Brown ISU to UCLA
   
3. Dani Carnegie GA to Iowa
   
4. Jada Williams ISU to LSU
   
5. Talaysia Cooper Tenn to Ole Miss
   
6. Jordan Lee
   
7. Nunu Agara
   
8. Liv McGill
   
9. Mia Woolfolk
   
10. Aaliyah Crump
    
11. Zamareya Jones
    
12. Tilda Trygger
    
13. Jade Richard
    
14. Madison St. Rose
    
15. Kaylene Smikle
16. Lara Somfai
    
17. Skylar Forbes
    
18. Gracie Merkle
    
19. Jadyn Wooden
    
20. Kate Koval
    

Also considered: Elina Aarnisalo, North Carolina to UCLA; Achol Akot, Oklahoma State to North Carolina; Carys Baker, Virginia Tech to Louisville; Essence Cody, Alabama to Texas A&M; Lanie Grant, North Carolina to TCU; Kiyomi McMiller, Penn State to Florida; Zahirah Walton, George Mason to West Virginia.

Yesterday user mpowell397 posted "UConn - final four - vulnerable?" to express the concern that perhaps UConn isn't as vaunted as everyone thinks. I've had the same feeling all year despite the undefeated season, so decided to do some statistical analysis compared to last year's team to see how they stack up.

The tournament provides a unique opportunity to assess and compare the final four teams against largely equivalent opposition statistically over the course of their first four tournament games right before they're going to play each other. The stats capture the teams at their peak performance.

Here's how those four games average out for each team:

This year, UConn still has the best defensive rating and forces the most turnovers, but its offensive rating and rebounding is by far the worst among the contenders. That's a pretty big Achilles heel.

Compare to 2025 (same first four games only):

The feeling that UConn's nattie felt like an inevitability last year is due to their complete dominance in almost every single category: offense, defense, shooting percentage, and forcing turnovers.

This year there's much greater parity, and UConn is not the obvious favorite to totally dominate everyone else. In fact running some rudimentary simulations, I had SC beating UConn 9 out of 10 times, and Texas beating UCLA 10 out of 10 times. In an SC vs TX final, SC wins 6 out of 10. Now of course anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but it's not the slam-dunk it was last year.

Despite SC's edge, I think any team can win it this year. This weekend is going to have some great basketball.