I tend to make an offseason plan each year because I genuinely find it really fun. I especially love the conversations it stems and seeing how others evaluate talent both in the M's org and outside. With this offseason predicted to be rushed in November to avoid the lockout, I figured I would push my plan out a little early to get ahead of the busy season.
To preface my moves, I genuinely believe each move has merit and is equitable for each team so if there is a move you don't agree with, I am more than happy to dive into it deeper, but for sake of brevity, I will try to keep this post on the condensed side.
To preface, I am operating with a max budget of $170,000,000 and am using MLB Trade Rumor's arb projections.
In House:
- Pick up Andres Munoz player option for $8,750,000
- Reject Victor Robles player option for $9,000,000
- Non-tender Michael Rucker
- Non-tender Weston Wilson
- Option Brock Rodden back to AAA
- Non-tender Cooper Crisswell
Commited payroll sits at $130,102,381
- Mariners trade RHP George Kirby and OF Luke Raley to the Baltimore Orioles for 3B Jordan Westburg and RHP Anthony Nunez
- O's interest context - The Orioles need OF production and starting pitching. While Raley hasn't been a beacon of health, his production, when on the field, is undeniable and would be a huge step up from what the O's put out there this season for a relatively cheap price and they'd get him for another 3 years. Kirby's value is self-explanatory. His ceiling is Cy Young candidate, and he has 2 more years of club control.
- M's interest context - Westburg would provide stability at 3B for the next 3 seasons, gives you a right-handed bat with power, and will play an average to slightly above average defense. Nunez had an intriguing rookie season this year posting a pedestrian 3.90 ERA but consistently sitting in the upper 80 to 90th percentile in swing and miss, chase and whiff percentages. Westburg and Raley are sort of challenge trades because both have questionable health. Mariners would be taking on more risk considering Westburg is coming off TJ surgery but the combination of more club control and a high upside bullpen arm with near max years of club control help cover that risk.
- Payroll sits at $119,482,381
- Mariners extend Logan Gilbert on a 5-year $120,000,000 deal ($24,000,000 annual)
- I won't spend too much time on this because what Gilbert offers is probably very clear to all of us. He is the leader of this young staff and as much as you are paying for his on-field performance, you are paying him to help guide the young guys around him.
- Payroll sits at $128,082,381
- Mariners trade RHP Matt Brash and RF Lazaro Montes to the Pittsburg Pirates for OF Bryan Reynolds.
- Pirates' context - The Pirates want to stay competitive but will need to open the doors for their 2 top 100 OF prospects soon. Reynolds is under contract for another 5 years and is making $15,250,000 per year. Providing Laz offers a cheap bridge between Reynolds and their prospects while still putting up good offensive production and this allows their payroll to be spread across more positions. His top prospect pedrigree should help offset the immediate production loss of Reynolds and Brash helps bolster a bad bullpen for a cheap price.
- Mariners context - Reynolds offers 20 homer potential while playing good defense at all three spots and adds a switch hitter presence to the lineup to better balance things. He will hit for a good average and lengthen the lineup. Losing Brash will hurt but this team has gotten used to pitching without him due to his health, it may just be time to move on. While Laz's tools are really fun, his defensive limitations really handcuff this roster which needs to get more flexible.
- Payroll sits at $140,752,381
- Mariners sign UTL Mauricio Dubon to a 3 year, $30,000,000 deal ($10,000,000 annual)
- Dubon makes the bench legitimately good and would serve as your SS back up while we wait for Emerson to be ready. Dubon will hit for an average and offers another right handed bat off the bench but you really just need him to play good defense. He can help cover 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, and RF. In a pinch he could even cover 1B.
- Payroll sits at $150,752,381
- Mariners trade 2B Ryan Bliss and RHP Carlos Vargas to Tampa Bay Rays for 1B/OF Ryan Vialde and RHP Tyler Wells.
- Rays context - Vildae is the type of found talent that the Rays love to flip. He isn't an essential piece, and he can get you back some interesting depth. Wells is due to make $4,000,000 and only has one more year left of club control. It is pretty much guaranteed that he will not be a Ray. Vargas holds lots of club control and has eye popping tools that the Mariners just haven't been able to fully tap into. The Rays could very easily turn Vargas into a legit threat.
- Mariners context - With Raley leaving in a previous move, and Weston Wilson getting kicked to the curb, the M's will need a new 1B back up. Vilade is a decent fielder and provides a righty complient to Naylor. While you are mainly getting him for defensive versitility, he does have good power in the bat. Nothing special here but he makes for a much better bench. Wells is the prize here. A veteran righty with dominate back end of the bullpen stuff. He would pick up the clean-up responsibilities that Brash would leave behind and he would add a lot more strikeouts into a bullpen that struggled to miss bats.
- Payroll sits at $154,732,381
- Mariners sign Kaima Taira to a 4-year, $48,000,000 deal ($12,000,000 annual)
- This move can be subbed for a different FA releiver but Taima has the benefit of doubling as starting pitcher depth. His 5'-8" stature will be a knock on his value but his stuff is undeniable with a fastball sitting at or above 100 MPH when he throws out of the pen. MLB scouts seem to agree his will be a reliever making his price lower than some might expect but I really think this guy will be dominate without having to pay for the later years that you'd see in other FA veteran relievers.
- Payroll sits at $166,732,381
New Roster:
C - Cal Raleigh SH
1B - Josh Naylor LH
2B - Cole Young LH
3B - Jordan Westburg RH
SS - Colt Emerson LH
LF - Michael Arroyo RH
CF - Julio Rodriguez RH
RF - Bryan Reynolds SH
DH - Dominic Canzone - LH
Bench
C - Jhonny Pereda RH
2B, 3B, LF, RF - Brendan Donovan LH
OF, 2B, 3B, SS - Mauricio Dubon RH
1B/OF - Ryan Vilade
Rotation
Logan Gilbert
Bryan Woo
Emerson Hancock
Bryce Miller
Kade Anderson
Bullpen
Andres Munoz RH
Tyler Wells RH
Gabe Speier LH
Kaima Taira RH
Jose Ferrer LH
Eduard Bazardo RH
Anthony Nunez RH
Seranthony Dominguez RH
To keep it simple, Donovan will rotate around give guys off days and remaining in the lineup as much as possible but I anticipate we will see him getting more rest to try and keep him healthy. Dubon will help cover SS while we wait on Emerson but when he returns Dubon will help platoon there against tough lefties as well as be a base runner and defensive sub guy. Vilade will really only play if we need a righty pinch hitter or if Naylor needs a rest.
