I'm 381 days from retiring (November 12th 2027). If you want to know my financial situation, see this reddit post.
I want to share something I learned recently, that may helps others.
In my humble opinion, the biggest risk in early retirement is not having enough money outside of 401K to help with SORR and MAGI juggling to help stay below the ACA subsidy cliff.
I learned this lesson much too late and I'm worried about not having enough tax-efficient money to weather these two monstrous issues. But this is not the lesson here, though it is important to understand.
The new thing I learned is that I can move money within my 401K to safer investments/bonds/cash to help offset any market downturn. That's the lesson. This assumes a few things. Your income may exceed the 400% FPL for ACA, you are FIRE-ing before 65 and you need ACA until medicare kicks in.
Now, if you have Fidelity, like I do, your company may allow access to 401K Brokerage Link. This allows you to invest in anything, which makes this much easier.
So what does this option allow me to do? Right now, I have 184K in non-401K money to help offset SORR and MAGI subsidy. When I retire, I'll have at least 250K, but hope to have 300K. But the issue comes if the market is down for a very long time, think 3 years or more. This means the 250K-300K that I will potentially have, has two jobs in this worst case scenario. It's probably not enough to handle both jobs simultaneously for long stretches of a down market, so the goal is to move money now, while I am still working, within my 401K to safer investments that I can pull from if the market stays down for a long time and I need to worry about both SORR and MAGI subsidy cliff.
I just moved 100K over to SGOV within my 401K, so that is another 100K that I can tap into in the worst case scenario situation. If the market somehow does well, I might move 200K total over to SGOV within my 401K.
Anyway, I'm not perfect, I don't have all the answers. I'm just trying to figure it out like all of you. Maybe you disagree with me? Let's have a discussion. What are you doing or planning to do? What other options are you considering?