Does anyone understand what Brighton's plan is with this kid? After coming back from injury, he started twice in Europe and played 45 and 19 minutes in between in the PL.
He has crazy stats. Played a total of 128 minutes in the league so far, scored 3 goals, has 1.64 xg/90, 2.11 shots on target /90, and I get that this is partly an anomaly due to the low minutes, but still...
Will he eventually be a starter in Brighton? And if yes, will he play at least 70-75 minutes in this team with so much creativity? Or will Hürzeler be choosing dhe Zerbi way with constant rotation?
If he would play, he could easily be in the same tier with Tav and Manzambi.
I constantly hear that a particular player is valuable because he is on pens. Is that true though? I tend to doubt it. Instead, I would contend that penalty takers are overvalued.
We are through 8 game weeks. There have been 11 pks and 8 makes. That means we can expect about 52 attempts and 38 makes over the course of the year. That is 1.9 makes per team. You have to hope you actually get those, and that your guy is healthy and on the field. Keep in mind there is a -2 for misses, and we are on track for 0.7 misses per club (each miss is a -2).
So, over the course of the season you could reasonably expect 9.5 (1.9 x 5) pts based on makes. If you factor a 0.7 miss that is a -1.4 (0.7 x -2). So expected value of a PK taker is about 8.1 over the season (9.5 - 1.4). That means the expected value is only 0.21 per week (8.1/38).
And if your PK taker has already taken/made a pen, the odds are generally against further PKs.
Are people really making a decision based on 0.21 pts per week?
Now I fully concede that most PK takers are already great players worth having. I just don't think that being on pens is the + factor that many consider it to be.
Whilst we all know Arsenal are likely going to win the league, I've only had one Arsenal asset this season in Mosquera and then once he got injured, subbed him out.
The reasons for not having Arsenal assets for me were as follows:
- GK - Raya normally is a good asset, but have found others cheaper and producing competitive points hauls.
- DEF - all good options however given Saliba has been injured, rotation happens fairly regularly for Arsenal and more so compared to last season apart from Gabriel who is £8m, so too expensive if I want to invest elsewhere. Maybe when Saliba is back, he goes straight into my team.
- MID - They either are defensive players who don't score as many points as they need to or they are attackers who I don't trust like Saka (injury risk) or Madueke (minutes risk)
- FWD - Havertz and Gyokores are rotation risks and if you have Haaland and João Pedro, then there's only one slot left and there are better players to go for.
Thoughts on this or am I in utter delusion in my decision to not have any Arsenal players at this point (note I did manage to get a green arrow last week by 3 points with a low 50s score)
EDIT (to provide further context on this):
My thought process on picking players was who's guaranteed to play 90 minutes (or at the very least 65-70 minutes), for defenders who is likely to be attacking and get assists. This led to the conclusion of the following when comparing alternatives to Arsenal players.
For the goalkeeper, who would score near to Raya.
For midfielders, better attacking returns for me from Chelsea assets and other attacking mids from clubs outside the big 6 (like Tavenier)
For attackers, I'm on the João Pedro Haaland Isak front line so those three when fit will always play.
I have 3 FTs this week and 2 will go to Van Hecke and Kudus in i think! They have an insane run of fixtures til December and they genuinely look good and I thought that even before the Chelsea match. Anyone else going in on Spurs?
Looking at my own team, have 3 flagged players, and a few who I'd like to swap out for their upcoming run of fixtures, still got the wildcard and thinking about using it now, but unsure. Anybody else in the same boat?
He's returned in every gameweek except the first. He's absurdly strong on minutes. I've capped every week and he's making up for a lot of my bad decisions.
Would like to hear from those who shuffle it about. Any big successes? Any tips for the next 5 gameweeks?
0:00 Intro
0:18 What is the current template?
5:20 Template Goalkeepers and alternatives
7:19 Template Defenders and alternatives
23:05 Template Midfielders and alternatives
34:18 Template Forwards and alternatives
40:22 Outro
Here is all the data for free if you want to go beyond what is discussed in the video
We have areputation system. Reply !thanks to someone who has helped you and this rewards them with a point, shown next to their username.
This thread is for:
RMT (rate my team)
X vs Y
Advice
Quick Questions
If any of the above are posted outside this thread it will be removed. Before posting, use the search function to check if your question has been answered already.
For advice with your team, please include a screenshot with your team & ask your specific question or concerns if any.
Please upvote the users who are helping and be respectful during the discussion.
Please try to contribute too by helping others when possible.
____
To view real time comments in this thread click here.
To compare players check out the incredible FantasyPL_Bot commands available here)! For example:
!fplbot <player_name> vs. <team_name> <optional: number of fixtures>
Barry obviously has a lot of chances but burns most of them. So even when he scores bonus is usually of the table.
I'm leaning more and more towards going with an extra defender and just bench him permanently.
If you get a defcon defender in a decent team, ex: Silva at Bournemouth, then I can't really see a 4-week run where the defender doesn't outperform him.
So, this weekend's fixture list is one of those ones where it'll be incredibly hard to pick the winning teams. We've got the Top 4 all playing each other, 19th vs 20th, and all the highly owned but massively trollish assets are localised entirely within a single game:
LIV vs ars - Loads of us will have both Arsenal defenders and Liverpool attackers (who are starting to gel successfully) and the difference between an away clean sheet or clean sheet wipe will have massive consequences one way of the other.
MCI vs bri - Haaland against De Cuyper? Grob against Gvardiol? Some huge ownership players are almost guaranteed to score very poorly in this fixture.
CHE vs mun - It's the FPL trolls against the meme team, and basically anything could happen. Will Bruno or Pedro even play? Will Palmer be warm enough? Will Mbeumo unleash his inner fraud? To make matters worse it's even the early kickoff. You know, just to maximise the unpredictability factor.
Instead of trying to predict these most volatile of games, and potentially even taking enormous risks like benching your Arsenal or Liverpool assets, a better solution may be to consider playing your Free Hit chip this week.
This would allow you to play less riskily, instead of gambling on which hugely expensive players to bench or fielding both sides and inevitably having half of them suffer a terrible week. It also has the benefit of keeping all those juicy Top 4 players in your team for their more foolproof games going forward and preventing the need to spunk multiple transfers fixing your team afterwards.
So if you do use your Free Hit, which teams should you target? With the Top 4, Bottom 2 and Chaos 2 all involved with each other, there aren't really any obvious Hydrogen Bomb vs Coughing Baby fixtures to capitalise on.
AVL, BOU, BRE and TOT (fool me 37 times, shame on me) are probably the likeliest winners from the rest, and have players going into GW9 with good form.
HUL (and either team from COV vs sun) could offer a decent chance of a one-off clean sheet.
NEW vs eve features individually good FPL assets but they're also playing each other.
Of course you'd probably need your head examining if you actually took out Haaland, and the brave among us will be happy keeping other Top 4 players like Grob or Raya despite their challenging fixtures.
Some players on decent form and with reasonable GW9 fixtures to consider would include:
GK - Tzolakis (HUL), Kinsky (TOT)
DF - Tarkowski (EVE), Fogle (LEE), Hall (NEW), Van Hecke (TOT), Egan (HUL), Dasila (COV), Muklele (SUN)
ST - Jackson (AVL), Thiago (BRE), Evanilson (BOU), Calvert-Lewin (LEE)
Of course, spending Free Hit now will leave you without it until we get a new one in GW19. If you're absurdly unlucky then doing this could leave you vulnerable to a potential injury crisis (or MCI players having to attend a war crimes tribunal) in a future GW if you haven't been hoarding your free transfers.
I think I've convinced myself while writing this out, but do you lot think it's a good idea to use FH9 in order to navigate this sudden conflux of unpredictable games for our most owned FPL assets? Any other players you'd like to give a shout out to for a cheeky one week spectacular love affair?
Greetings all, and welcome to your latest load of ramblings from Full 90 FPL.
You're stuck with Old Joe this week, and I've had an absolute stinker in Gameweek 8. I will try to heroically put my personal tragedy aside though, and deliver a calm and unbiased-
WHY THE HELL IS LAMMENS STILL IN MY TEAM?!
I FINALLY BRING YOU IN, MORGAN ROGERS, AND SUDDENLY YOU FORGET HOW TO SHOOT?
WHY DIDN’T I JUST GET GET TAVERNIER INSTEAD, AS I KNEW I SHOULD???
Ahem. Do excuse me.
As I was saying, here is a calm and unbiased Gameweek 9 preview:
Alternatively, as always, there's a short TLDR summary below.
---
Best Upcoming Fixture Runs
As ever these runs come from our customisable and completley free fixture ticker.
Here are the best attacking runs over the next five gameweeks:
And the best defensive runs:
There's lots of actual analysis of the teams and players to target in the full article.
Here are a few quick takeaways, though:
Bournemouth - Tavernier might actually be the best midfield pick in FPL right now, and he's only 6.4. Nice upcoming fixtures too
Man City - I'm staying away from all their attackers except Haaland, the rotation is just too much. The bald fraud is dead - long live the bald fraud
Villa - Talented attacking lineup, and I'd be more than happy to buy Nico Jackson right now
Arsenal defence - If I was wildcarding, I'd triple up (preferably after Liverpool away). They're still the best defence in the league by miles
Liverpool defence - I'm officially a believer. Jacquet looks particularly good value at 5.0. Again, preferably after Arsenal, but Arteta tends to play this fixture pretty defensively
Spurs defence - Have actually looked excellent lately, and now have five very nice fixtures. Van Hecke remains the clear pick
Brighton defence - Still very good. I'd happily hold De Cuyper through City away, and potentially double up afterwards
Should I Buy?
Here are my brutally brief verdicts on the most-bought players heading into GW9.
Full explanations are in the article, or just ask below.
Yes - Nico Jackson, Tavernier, Konsa
Maybe - Isak, Evanilson, Manzambi, Rogers
No - Gabriel, Cherki, De Cuyper
I'm especially keen on Jacko right now (along with everyone else). He was my highest-upside budget forward pick last week, then promptly scored twice against City. Now he's got Fulham and Man U coming up, lovely jubbly.
Tavernier is another big (and admittedly obvious) recommendation. I've been banging on about him for weeks, then picked Rogers over him for my own team like an idiot, and was duly punished.
Should I Sell?
Yes - Bruno F, Cherki, Wissa, Gonzalo, Odegaard
Maybe - Joao Pedro, DCL, Palmer
No - Calafiori
(Obviously it's also a 'Yes' to long term injured players like Saka and Szob.)
Re: JP, we need to wait for proper injury news before making any decisions.
If you're still holding Wissa I don't know what to tell you.
I'd also finally get rid of Bruno. Man U remain rubbish, as you might have heard, he's been rubbish, and he costs a fortune.
Erling Haaland's Captaincy Corner
It's Haaland, as usual. Brighton are good, but he's still the best player in the game.
JP would be my sexy alternative pick vs Man U at home, if he's definitely actually fit.
Tavernier, home to Leeds, is another sensible shout... but just be boring and give it to big Erl.
That's It
Okie dokie, that'll do it for this week.
As ever, there's far more actual detail in the main piece, if you can be arsed.
Whether you can or not, thanks for reading, everybody, and best of luck in Gameweek 9!
Thiago omitted as on 4 ycs, not bothering with a few others e.g. Arsenal forwards, Gonzalo, etc.
To be discussed on WGTA tonight, but fully expect Nic Jackson to be the main choice most go with - do like Isak too but not the right week to be jumping in probably
Jackson is just about a Maybe for pens btw - I think it's probably a No but there's a remote chance if Buendia and Barkley are off the pitch he might take one. Who knows
Arsenal. Gifted by far the easiest draw of the round, Arsenal are eliminated on penalties by League Two Fleetwood Town. Havertz, Gyokeres, and Hincapié play 90. Timber plays the first half, White plays the second. Ødegaard also subs on at half time. Bruno Guimarães comes on as a late sub, and is the only player to miss their penalty in the shootout.
