r/EUnews • u/innosflew • 4h ago
Giorgia Meloni’s government set to pass EU-compliant budget for 2027 - Italy’s three-party governing coalition plans €23.5bn package of tax cuts and spending increases
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s governing coalition is expected on Wednesday to approve a budget for next year that complies with EU fiscal rules, amid mounting concerns about potential contagion from France’s deepening debt crisis.
Meloni and her allies will seek to secure a second term in general elections next year against a backdrop of simmering frustration with Italy’s sluggish economic growth and soaring living costs. That anger has recently begun boiling over into protests, including last week’s disruptive strike by truck drivers and violent riots in Milan earlier this month.
But in drafting its last budget before going to the polls, Meloni’s three-party coalition faces intense pressure to ensure it does not spook the international investors with holdings in Italy’s crushing debt pile, which is one of Europe’s biggest at 138 per cent of GDP.
The government is aiming for a package of €23.5bn in tax cuts and spending increases. To fund some of its programme, the government intends to raise €5bn in extra revenues through fresh taxes on banks and insurance companies — something that has provoked complaints from lenders.
“The country’s financial credibility — especially in times like these — is an asset that must be preserved at all costs,” Italy’s finance minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told parliament earlier this month.
During its four years in power, Meloni’s government has impressed rating agencies with its fiscal rectitude and determined efforts to cut Italy’s once yawning budget deficits. This year’s deficit is forecast to come in at 2.9 per cent of GDP, just below the EU’s 3 per cent official deficit ceiling.
Italy has nevertheless suffered one of the biggest jumps in borrowing costs among big bond markets since the beginning of the US-Iran war, which has pushed its 10-year yield up from under 3.3 per cent in late February to around 4.5 per cent.
The close-watched gap — or spread — compared with German 10-year debt surged earlier this month to nearly 1.3 percentage points, its widest in more than a year, amid rising worries of contagion from France’s bond-market woes. The spread was sitting at just above 1.1 points on Tuesday, though Italy’s borrowing costs remain below those of France, which recently hit the highest levels in a quarter of a century.
After four years of continuous decline, Italy’s budget deficit is forecast to rise again in 2027 to 3.4 per cent of GDP, as Rome takes advantage of the EU’s national escape clause. This grants a temporary exemption from the EU’s deficit cap provided that the extra spending is devoted to defence and energy security.
But even with this additional fiscal space, agreeing the precise package of tax cuts and spending increases to ease economic pressure on ordinary citizens — while maintaining fiscal discipline — has proved challenging.
“Unfortunately, the blanket is too short,” Giorgetti warned entrepreneurs this week, deploying a common Italian expression signifying inadequate resources to fully cover all the wishes of Meloni and her coalition partners.
In a series of long, late-night negotiating sessions in recent days, Meloni and her allies have haggled intensely over how to target spending increases and other measures to address pressing public needs.
Among their shared priorities are incentives to encourage the employment of young people and women with children, and handouts for the elderly to help compensate for eroding pension income.
Deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini has argued for lowering the retirement age, while foreign minister Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia party has advocated for raising the income threshold for taxpayers before they are pushed into a higher tax bracket.
The process is also said to have been delayed by last-minute negotiations with Brussels over exactly what measures Rome can adopt, as the European Commission will not agree to subsidising energy costs.
“The central theme of this budget bill will be the effort to address household purchasing power and, above all, to address energy issues for businesses — in short, these are the two main pillars,” Marco Osnato, a lawmaker from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and chair of the parliament’s budget committee, said.