Weekly Career & Breaking Into Commodities Megathread

There's a lot of talk about El Niño at the moment, so I lined up ENSO, the US drought score, the USDA yield estimate and the corn price for the seasons 2010-2026.

Where we are: the July-September ONI is +2.16, the highest for that season since 1950. On NOAA's relative index it reads 1.7, second behind 1997 (1.8). CPC's October update gives an 83% chance of a historic event in Oct-Dec.

What the data say:

Spring El Niño and summer drought: in the 4 of 17 seasons with a spring El Niño, the corn belt's mean summer drought score was 0.3 (share of area in D2-D4, weighted by state production), against 6.5 in the ten neutral seasons. Rank correlation -0.68. The two worst drought years, 2012 and 2023, were both ENSO-neutral in spring.

Drought and the USDA number: the May-to-August change in the WASDE corn yield correlates -0.45 with the drought score. 2012 saw -25.7%, 2023 -3.5%, quiet years about +4%.

Drought and the price: this is where it falls apart. None of 45 pre-defined tests survived, and the season's drought score has a +0.19 rank correlation with the corn return over the following 13 weeks.

A strong autumn El Niño also isn't a promise: of the 8 years since 1950 with a Jul-Sep ONI of +1.0 or more, only 4 were still at El Niño level the next March-May.

17 seasons is a small sample and this year is outside anything in it, so I treat it as context, not a signal. Curious whether others look at ENSO for the ag markets, and if so, at which point in the chain.

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Or do you have any idea how the process works? I was just wondering how it all works. Do you run into problems with Chinese or Russian mine owners there? I just imagine it’s a bit like the Wild West. How do you go about hiring workers? How to make sure you not run into scammers?

Hello all,

I just wanted to drop the following link(s) for those looking to find a good source on market analysis/blogs - both in commodities are in markets in general - besides your obvious Bloombergs, WSJ's etc.

https://pvmoil.co.uk/insights

https://unhedger.com/

https://coppolacomment.substack.com/

Some of you may already know it, some wont. In any case, they're good to keep in your bookmarks and read from time to time.

Hi all, this week normally should have started the online assessment on mental maths, sequences and probabilities for Geneva commercial grad program.

Did someone receive the assessment already?

Thanks

Hey everyone, I’m about to take my series 3 exam. I’ve been studying with Kaplan for the past few weeks. What did you guys use? That was good and what did your exam consist of? Was it more math problems more ethic stuff any insight would be appreciated!

The expected Fed hold this week could be less helpful to silver than the headline initially sounds.

Reuters reported on October 26 that the Fed is expected to leave rates at 3.75% to 4.00% at the October 27 and 28 meeting. Further tightening remains a possibility because inflation concerns have persisted.

For silver, I think the important question is what happens to expectations after the decision.

If rates stay unchanged but investors become more convinced another increase is coming, the financial backdrop could remain difficult. A pause only provides so much relief when the market still sees borrowing costs moving higher later.

A more constructive outcome would be evidence that inflation is easing enough to reduce that risk. That could give investors more room to focus on silver's physical market and longer term demand.

These are scenarios, rather than a prediction of Wednesday's move.

I am also interested in how silver behaves after the first reaction. Does any rally survive the press conference and the next round of economic data? Does gold hold its gains? Are bond yields reinforcing or undoing the initial move?

Those responses may tell us more than the decision itself.

For anyone looking beyond this month's weakness, this seems like a useful test. Silver needs buyers willing to hold through an uncertain rate outlook. A brief rally on an expected announcement would provide less evidence of that than several days of sustained demand.

Wondering people's experiences in power trading at each of these, particularly if you've been at both. I work at a physical shop that owns assets and have wondered what it's like on the spec side.

My experience on the physical side at an IPP is that it really depends how risk taking the shop is. Some shops only want you to hedge the asset whereas others allow you to trade around an asset position. Comp is pretty decent, nothing crazy, and it is defniitely "safe" (no risk of being fired, most people have been here 5+ years).

On the spec side, it seems traders get a ~150 base and a % of book. How about on the analyst side? Is the grass much greener?

I know nothing about the Utility side.

I’m a power trader but I’ve always been curious what the workflow and fundies research for a metals/ags spec trader looks like. For us it’s a lot of load/weather/ renewable gen forecasting so can be quite quantitative. I’m sure ags has a weather component but otherwise are metals and ags more macro driven/capturing arb on mispricing?

I need some advise on how to proceed with a deal I am brokering right now. This is my first time brokering a commodity deal. My buyer is ready to send the LC. its going to be a non transferable on sight LC. my supplier wants 40% advance and rest net30 after BOL is presented. I have no capital basically 0 other than paying for minor costs. I am trying figure out how to pay the advance. I can easily pay the rest 70% because the LC will payout after I send the BOL to buyer's bank. what should I do for the 30% advance? and one more thing how should I structure the contract with my supplier so that if product fails lab report, quality or quantity inspection, I can get back my money?

supplier and myself are in the same country if it makes anything less complicated

Anyone have any recommendations for what software works most automated for tagging and scheduling physical power trades in the US?

I recently visited Singapore and was struck by its role as an international financial and business hub.

My background is in finance, including public-market investing, venture capital. Most of my experience has been in equities and financial products, so physical commodities are an area I know relatively little about.
I’m particularly curious about Singapore’s oil trading industry and how it connects financial markets with the physical economy.

I’d love to learn from people familiar with the industry:
Why is Singapore such an important oil trading hub despite having limited domestic oil resources?

How do oil trading firms actually make money? Beyond predicting oil prices, how important are physical trading, regional price spreads, logistics, and derivatives?

How does oil trading differ fundamentally from equity investing or trading financial instruments?

Where does Singapore’s competitive advantage lie compared with London or other global commodity hubs?

For someone with an investment research and quantitative background, what concepts or data sources would be the best starting point for understanding this industry?

I’m not necessarily looking to switch careers. I’m genuinely interested in understanding how this market works and how it fits into Singapore’s broader financial and economic ecosystem.

I'm trying to decide between the two, mainly interested in power and energy. Would a combination of both be even better? Are there better majors for a career in power and energy.

Anybody interested in this as well? Is this even possible in today's day and age?

hey everyone!

i recently got a return offer to join a major (Shell / BP) trading program and wanted to ask a very specific question to any gay people in this field: how do you deal with your identity when chatting with colleagues on the desk?

im a very straight passing guy and over my summer internship, anytime someone brought up girls or stuff like that, i would joke around and pretend that im “straight” in convos (dated girls in HS) but in my head, i always had to double check to keep my story straight

my main concern is that a bunch of traders (mainly guys) really like me and want to develop me on their desks but im scared that if i reveal if im gay, they would not want to “open up” with me as they would if they thought i was straight (limiting my future opportunities)

a lot of this job is just being liked and being a good person with strong relationships so i want to approach this situation carefully since i also don’t want to lie and down the road, people are like woah, wtf if i ever date a guy long term more openly

overall the broader LGBT community at the major is awesome but you know guys joke about being gay and it’s also a much more “abrasive” culture when it comes to that stuff

any advice or thoughts would be appreciated!

I went through the latest USDA numbers on U.S. rough rice (ZR) and the picture is more mixed than the chart suggests.

The rally: ZR closed at 17.19 USD/cwt on Oct 20, +83% from the 9.37 low on Dec 17 (the Oct 16 close of 17.35 was the highest since June 2024).

The cause is acreage. U.S. long-grain area harvested drops 33% to 1.39 million acres, all-rice area is the lowest since 1972/73, and the October WASDE has production at 157.7 million cwt, a 33-year low.

The price part is what I found interesting. Using ERS's 2025 cost-and-return estimate for the U.S. total (1,343 USD per planted acre in total costs, 792 operating, 81 cwt yield), the break-evens come out around 16.59 USD/cwt (everything USDA lists) and 9.78 (operating costs only). The December low sat right under the operating-cost line; ZR is now just above the full-cost line.

But supply isn't empty: beginning stocks are a 40-year high, imports are forecast at a record 49.8 million cwt, so total supply falls only 12% while production falls 24%. And ZR is a U.S. long-grain contract in a world market - the U.S. is about 4% of world exports, India 39% and holding a record ~59 million tonnes of stocks.

Funds went from net short ~6,400 contracts in December to net long ~3,500 (COT index 100 on 26 weeks), in a market with only ~14,700 contracts of open interest.

Curious how others read it: cost floor, or just a thin market squeezed by a smaller crop?

I've been reading quite a bit about Japanese power markets and it looks pretty interesting especially how they essentially have 2 different grids. Is there physical trading there?

For context I'm in North American markets right now doing virtuals/congestion and ICE (short term swaps), not sure if any of the terms I'm using here are applicable there.

I know this is a pretty niche ask but just throwing it out there for anybody who either has insight on what it's like out there. How is the volatility and what kind of products do desks staff up on there?

Been going back and forth on this for months, but I finally pulled the trigger and bought some gold this week.

What made me decide was the price. Back in January it was around $5,400/oz and I remember thinking I’d completely missed the boat. Now it’s sitting around $4,150, so it felt like a much more comfortable entry point for me.

I’m not expecting to get rich off it. I mainly wanted something steady in my portfolio that isn’t tied to how the stock market is doing. If it slowly grows my money over the next few years and holds its value when things get shaky, I’ll be happy.

Plan is to keep adding a little every month instead of trying to time it perfectly, because I know I’d just stress myself out doing that.

If you trade physical goods, how does your week and work looks like currently?

Would like to know which agri commodities newsletters/substacks traders value and are subscribed to, and whether it’s a daily thing, weekly etc.

Edit:

Starting an internship in spring and I want to understand how traders formulate a view or thesis on a trade. Really looking for any and all resources.

Thanks

Why is gasoline so weak this week even as crude is up and every day we are seeing new outages in terminals and refining systems due to the two wars?

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The LBMA’s October 14 report cites projected silver mine production of 844.1 million ounces in 2026, compared with 846.6 million in 2025

About a 0.3% decline

That is a forecast, but it is a pretty limited supply response considering the prices silver producers have seen

The report says expected gains in Mexico are being offset by declines elsewhere

That is the part worth digging into. A mine expansion adds production to the global total only after accounting for what other operations lose through declining grades, depletion or operating problems

A company can announce additional capacity while the industry as a whole barely moves forward

For investors, I think that makes actual production more useful than the combined capacity figures in company presentations. How many extra ounces reached the market, and how much spending was needed to get them there?

There is also a timing issue. Higher prices can make an expansion worth pursuing, but engineering, permits, equipment and underground development still take time

The demand side can respond during that wait. Manufacturers can reduce silver use, buyers can draw on inventories and more scrap can return to the market

So nearly flat mine supply is supportive of the silver case without being a promise of an immediate price increase

The thing I would watch is whether the expected additions arrive on schedule. If expansions slip while older operations lose output, the supply forecast gets harder to achieve

October 14 report:
https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/lbma-precious-metals-market-report-q3-2026

For those working at a major, trading house, IPP, etc, how common are tattoos in your office? Do you think they could have any effect on breaking into the industry or career progression? I know physical commodities can be somewhat traditional, and with the business being so international and relationship driven, I’m curious whether there are still any negative connotations around tattoos. I’m sure it slightly varies between companies and whether you’re front or back office but wondering if there is any overall perception. Thanks!