r/Barca • u/thisIsAswin • Jun 05 '22
:OC-redesign: Original Content A complete statistical analysis of Ter Stegen's season in comparison with rest of the league.
Marc Andre Ter Stegen’s performance has been a big point of discussion this season, so I decided to do a small analysis to see where his overall stats stand when compared to other GKs of LaLiga.
First of all, statistical analysis can never be the final word and could miss a lot of points, and on top of that, analyzing GKs can be extra difficult as the number can often be skewed by the quality of their defence and team tactics. And these numbers don’t account for positioning, which is an important aspect. But still, these types of metrics can lead to some insights into their overall performance, so it will be better to take this as a point to start a discussion rather than to conclude it.
Using data from the current season, we can compare Ter Stegen with the rest of the La Liga. That enables us to frame him in relative terms.
Using GSAA% and PSxG +/- we can judge his shot-stopping. Ter Stegen hovers around the middle of the pack. To some extent, Ter Stegen’s numbers will be suppressed by his positioning. But still both PSxG +/- and GSAA% being negative isn't great at all.
When we look at his GSAA% and PSxG +/- from the past seasons, we can also observe there has been an observable drop in quality for the last three seasons, with a small improvement in this season. But even with improvement his numbers are barely touching this season’s league average. 📷
Next we can see how he does in stopping crosses into the box. He falls in the bottom half of GKs with a cross stopping percentage of 6.50%, below the league avg 7.29%
and if we look at past seasons he has done worse than this only in 2019-20 season.
We can look at Number of defensive actions outside pen area and average action distance from goal to see how he did as a sweeper keeper. And as many of us have noticed this season Ter Stegen has been very reluctant to come off his line to clear the balls. And the numbers also proves it by him being on the bottom left with one of the lowest in the league.
But if we look at his past numbers it becomes more than obvious this change is very abrupt. That means this is purely by design and he has been instructed to stay on his line. But it is interesting to note that most teams playing a high defensive lines usually prefers a sweeper GK that is good at leaving his spot under the post to diffuse the long balls played over the top.
However, focusing purely on these stats alone would do a disservice to Ter Stegen’s game. He is one of the very best at playing with the ball at his feet. His xGBuildup demonstrates how important he is during our possession phase. He is capable of contributing to attacking play in a way few other keepers can, as demonstrated by his xGBuildup/90 of 7.190, which is miles ahead of the league average of 2.718.
Terstegens’s well-rounded game becomes even more obvious when you look at his passing range. With a long balls completed percentage of 59% he leads the pack by quite a distance.
And finally his position in pass completion% vs No of passes attempted plot completes the picture. Even if we credit the high number of passes attempted (which is second highest in the league) to the way Barca plays, he also tops pass completion with an insane 86.90% clearly above others.
So in conclusion we can see his shot stopping and activity in box stats has been very average, yet he continues to contribute when in possession.
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u/sport_____ Jun 05 '22
Is his elite passing ability worth the below average stopping shots, crosses and defensive performance in general? I don't believe so.
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u/FloReaver Jun 05 '22
He is really thinly below the average actually. Pretty much the average actually.
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u/Fjurica Jun 05 '22
eh, might be a form related thing for most of these things except crosses and going outside the box
dunno why but like 2-3 seasons ago he started losing form and having issues with knees and stuff and has looked quite poor when it comes to shot stopping.
Crosses were always his weakness and he was always a keeper that likes to stay on the line more than run out. Quite sad tbh→ More replies (1)1
u/Pleasant_Resolution2 Jun 06 '22
Ederson for City is similar
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u/fedginator Jun 06 '22
Thing about Ederson is that it's not just passing he's good at but cross claiming, sweeping and organisation. With (current) Ter Stegen his passing is greta but he is middling at everything else
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u/lambepsom Jun 06 '22
Maybe Laporta's master plan is to let go of Busquets and FdJ and play MaTS as a 5.
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Jun 05 '22
Surely the downfall has also to do with the defense he has had in front of him?
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u/NikolasFoot Jun 05 '22
Not really, these stats show that he concedes from easy chances.
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u/latortillablanca Jun 05 '22
No—literally the very first point of discussion in this post is these stats dont account for super important context like defensive positioning vis a vis GK positioning. It’s literally impossible with current stats to account for the differences between two shots on target, is another example. It’s quite easy to get a shot on target straight at the keep with no power—that would count towards the keepers “clear chance” stopping, when in reality we know that’s a grade school play.
Ter stegen perhaps more than any other top 4 keeper in Europe is working with a super weird set of circumstances around him that make it next to impossible for him to excel statistically. I do not for a second believe that if you take Alisson and plug him into our net that he will have the statistical profile that we have become used to from him.
That is the best part of this post, imo, and I applaud OP for hedging in the way they did—it’s 100% valid to say “ter stegen could do better” and use stars like these to point out why. But if we don’t take it with a grain of salt, that’s how everyone ends up with one glance at an xG metric and walks away with “ter stegen blows”
Footy stats have come a long long way—they still are nowhere near comprehensive enough to account for all the little wrinkles in this game that don’t result in any sort of countable situation. This game is not baseball or American football.
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Jun 05 '22
In the 2nd part of the season I have not seen ter stegen conceding easy chances most of the times defense has been found guilty
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u/Mrtuelemonde Jun 05 '22
Probably a bit since he started the season very bad and has ended up way better since he went from way below average (there was a post about MATS in November or December about this) and ends in the average in the end.
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u/Dumbass1171 Jun 05 '22
No, these stats deal with his shot stopping by taking into the account the types of chances the defense concedes.
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Jun 05 '22
The type of chances a solid defense concedes and the type of chances an old age (dani-araujo-pique-alba) defense concedes must be different
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u/fedginator Jun 06 '22
PSxG uses the quality of the shot, so it takes into account the fact the shots are coming from harder to save places than would be expected of a top team
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u/JavyDan Jun 05 '22
Don't blame the defense because De Gea has been great with that shite defense
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Jun 05 '22
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u/Mrtuelemonde Jun 05 '22
In just about every UCL campaign, the winning side's GK has been one of their best players and has bailed them out multiple times. That will never be the case with Ter Stegen anymore.
How do you know it won't be the case anymore? He is not back to his old level but he just ended the season in the average of La Liga (after a terrible start) and with way better saving stats than in 19-20 or 20-21. He is 4th in the POTS survey of this very sub. How do we know he is not on the verge of a comeback after two summers or surgeries?
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u/TalesdeMilet Jun 06 '22
It couldn't be more far from the truth. In a team that is generally well-built and needs some touches? Sure, let's improve Ter Stegen. Currently, when we are overhauling every line, we have a big defensive problem (every position needs improvement, either phasing out older players or improving average performers and adding depth), the midfield is still being figured out, and until the winter transfer window we had terrible attacking options (even with the current above-average only level, a striker and two right forwards are leaving).
On top of that, the debt issue is making any transfer extremely important. This year specially the goalkeeper is a position we should not focus at all. Ter Stegen is, at worst, average, and at best a great goalkeeper.
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u/[deleted] Jun 05 '22
Great analysis!!! Can I ask where u scraped these stats from?? u/thisIsAswin