Mobile users might struggle reading this.

My pitch that this is worth your time: Here's what I wrote when we last pulled off sign & trades for Max and for Lauri, I think they hold up pretty well to how each guy turned out.

https://reddit.com/link/1vuoe9b/video/1ymmnbvy6skh1/player

Peyton Watson

6'8 | 203 (~220 now) | 7'0.5 wingspan | 23 years old

2026: 15/5/2/1/1 on 49/41/73

PWat's Background

Grew up in Long Beach, CA. 5 star one and done UCLA bruin who came off the bench (ala Jrue Holiday and Russell Westbrook) due to a Bruins final four team returning talent like Jaime Jaquez Jr.

A lack of playing time at UCLA led to a fall to the 30th pick, we passed on him to draft Ochai Agbaji.

His lack of opportunity had his draft comp at Herb Jones as he hadn't shown much of his offensive game in his lone year in the NCAA.

Joining the 2023 champs as a rookie Watson had to earn his role on an established high performing team, he slowly earned more of a role each season leading to his RFA year w/o an extension in place.

PWat's Breakout

This past year he broke out beating the production of Christian Braun and Cam Johnson, fueled in part by an electric month of January where over 15 game he averaged 22/5.5/3/1.5/1 on 49/46/71 acting as the teams #2 and even #1 option.

So what happened in Jan?Jokic went down and Watson saw his unassisted shots made percentage spike to 33%.

His 3ball was drawing defenders out on the perimeter and he surprised everyone with his efficiency in creating good midrange looks and getting to the rim.

Over 40 starts this year he averaged 17.3 ppg on ~50% fg / 43% from 3.

Including a 30 point, 32 point, and 35 point performances.

Pros:

Dirty Work Defender

https://reddit.com/link/1vuoe9b/video/2v0okeplrskh1/player

• Physical disruptor on the wing and in the paint (avgs 2 Stalks per game for his career)
• Rim protector from helpside, high-end block producer for position
• Switchable defensive presence capable of sticking with guards and banging with forwards
• Takes on the hardest assignment every night, dirty work, energy wing
• Gets his steals without gambling in passing lanes
• Baits guards into chase down blocks on drives in the paint
• Not really bball data, but he's a dawg, I heard him talking shit after blocks so often while watching him for this post

Efficient Scorer

https://reddit.com/link/1vuoe9b/video/4jb1k5afuskh1/player

• Sniper from the corner 45% last year
• 59% TS in '26, efficient from each level (rim / mid / three)
• Length, speed, vert, euros, off hand, and toughness make him a plus finisher in transition or in the paint
• Versatile in PnR: Vision to find bigs with athleticism to finish as the roller
• Moves well without the ball, whether repositioning for a 3ball kickout or rejecting a screen to backcut his defender

Emerging Iso shot creator

• He scored unassisted on 33% of his buckets this year, an iso middie game was not on the scouting report
• His volume increased through out the year (from 9 to 16 shots per game) without a drop in efficiency
• Team first, willing to sacrifice, a guy who can do this to Mobley and not showing it till year 4 shows restraint and willingness to fit a role
• Has feints and fake pull ups and counters, puts defenders in the blender and knocks down iso looks in the midrange

Concerns:

• Availability, 68 and 54 games played the last two seasons
• One year of starting production, One month of all-star production
• If the iso efficiency in Jan was a mirage we still need a secondary creator on the wing to spell Harden / Don
• Under the rim finishing is drug down by an iffy floater, could use something between the pull up and the dive to the lane
• More of a midrange iso player and spot up 3 point shooter, not an off the bounce guy from deep
• 3.6 3s per game, volume is too low to fully trust last year's leap
• We will miss Max's efficiency in volume, I'm not sure we should ask Watson to fill that

Conclusion:

Do the Cavs have the best defensive frontcourt in the league? Did we just steal a new core member of the youth movement for the team?

I'm not sure how great this move will be, but i'm already pretty sure it will be good.

We have been looking for a non-bron SF since the days of Alonzo Gee and I think that search is finally over.

Theoretically, the fit is perfect.

We've had to sacrifice size (Okoro) or shooting (Dwade) in the past for our defense to function. Watson represents a potential solution to both the roles without either of the downsides.

A wing defender who can also knock down the corner 3 will provide driving lanes our guards didn't have most of the playoffs.

If his 3 ball from last year travels with him from Denver, this trade and this extension are a win.

If his iso game from January travels with him too, we might have stolen a young emerging two way star only available due to the punitive nature of the new cba.

His 'swing skill' as a prospect was shooting, I'd say his 'swing skill' on his second contract will be his iso efficiency and secondary creation.

This is a smart risk with more upside than downside. I'm really excited to see what role we give him and how he meshes with and augments the rest of the roster.

I see Watson as a Tayshaun Prince level player at his current trajectory with a ceiling of an Iggy Hop.

TLDR; You don't make this trade unless you believe in his iso ability as well as his 3 and D profile. We expect him to grow into a bigger role than he had in Denver.

Boxscore

Gotta be the best first Nugg of the days when the west coast swing to Denver meant pounding McNuggets

The finnisher with one of the best dunks of the season, in part handing the Nuggs their first loss of the season

DG led the league in shot %, assist to turnover %, plus minus, pnr ppp (points per possession), and isolation efficiency, 10th in total points

DG is clutch:

• Field Goal Percentage: Garland shot 58.7% from the field in clutch situations, the highest among players with at least 80 clutch points in the 2024-25 season.
• Points Scored: He accumulated 91 clutch points, ranking 10th in the NBA, despite taking the 25th most clutch shot attempts, indicating high efficiency. He averaged 3.4 points per game in clutch situations.
• Three-Point Shooting: Garland hit 57.1% of his three-point shots in clutch moments, again among the league leaders for players with significant clutch minutes.
• Assist-to-Turnover Ratio: He recorded a 17:3 assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch situations, the best in the NBA
• Free Throw Accuracy: Garland was nearly automatic at the free-throw line, shooting 87.9% (29/33), with his only misses noted in a game against the Houston Rockets.
• Plus/Minus: His +92 plus/minus in clutch situations led the league, reflecting his overall impact on winning close games.
• Pick-and-Roll and Isolation Efficiency: Garland led the league in clutch pick-and-roll (1.57 points per possession) and isolation (1.56 points per possession) efficiency

With the Donovan Mitchell trade complete and the subsequent losses of Lauri Markkanen and Ochai Agbaji, the Cavaliers are facing a problem they've known well since LeBron left for the second time: a lack of wing depth. These are different times. Before this year, not having a starting caliber wing didn't mean any more than losing a couple more games, but now it could be the difference between title contention and a first round exit.

However, Cleveland are in a good spot with their youth, and have at least three years before contracts start potentially becoming issues. Due to the Cavaliers' current core of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, this wing player doesn't need to be an all-star or even near that level. They need to be able play good point of attack defense, good team defense, and be able to hit threes.

That is it.

On defense, Garland and Mitchell have had mixed results through their career. Garland will never be overly positive defender, but is making improvements on that end. Mitchell has had his ups and downs on the Jazz, but has the potential to be a consistent disruptor. Either way, neither player should be guarding the opposing teams best guard or forward. This wing position needs to be able to hold their own against multiple positions.

On offense, Garland and Mitchell will command attention of the ball so their wing will not be expected to generate their own shots. Mobley and Allen will continue to be roll threats and pests around the rim. While both have the possibility of improving their jump shots, currently a spacer is needed to maximize their use in the offense. Anything extra is a plus, but would be an accessory to Cleveland's current offense.

Their current options at wing, Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert, Dean Wade, Dylan Windler, Cedi Osman, and Lamar Stevens, all have varying skillsets that make them valuable on most NBA rosters, but do not fit the ideal wing that Cleveland needs. All, but one.

DEAN WADE

https://youtu.be/eglZ5l6RP9E

Dean Wade has been with the Cavaliers since the 2019-20 season where he was on a two-way contract after going undrafted. He played a majority of that year on the Cavs G League affiliate, the Canton Charge, where he impressed Cleveland enough to give him a multi-year minimum contract. Since 2020-21, Dean Wade has been in and out of the starting lineup, mainly due to being JB Bickerstaff's go to guy to cover for any injured wing or big.

Unless you watch the Cavaliers, are deeply into the NBA, or have heard Zach Lowe's jingle for Wade's fictional accounting business, you probably do not know anything about him. And that makes sense; Dean Wade is not a walking highlight reel, but instead a steady player who does the small things to win games.

OFFENSE

There is very little to say about Dean Wade on the offensive end. He is not as skilled offensively compared to his peers. In most situations, this would make him a worse option, but Cleveland does not need what LeVert or Osman bring offensively. Dean Wade is there to do one thing on this and that is shoot threes.

catch-and-shoot numbers in the last three seasons *last two seasons

Compared to his teammates, he is the closest to matching Lauri's volume and efficiency. Dean Wade shoots at just above league average C&S efficiency (36.6%)(1) and unloads almost one and a half more C&Ss per 36 minutes (4.1 attempts per 36 minutes)(1). These are not great numbers, but for Cavaliers' current options they are lightyears better than his peers sans Cedi.

https://youtu.be/XZygaCeLLU8

This year 83.6% of Dean Wade's field goals were assisted. Above 80% is near the maximum level a player can be off-ball and league average is 67.6%. This is incredibly off-ball for almost all NBA players. Basically, Wade is never creating his own opportunities on the court and is reacting to his teammates with the ball. This is definitely not a bad trait for any player. There are many players with all-star to near all-star level talent that make their money off-ball, Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis, John Collins, and Michael Porter Jr. as examples.

Even Lauri, who has shot more C&S attempts in his career, had more on-ball opportunities than Wade. He would have plays called for him to post-up or make a play off the dribble. Dean Wade has never been expected to do this and will have even less opportunities with the addition of Donovan Mitchell.

It is hard to measure off-ball effectiveness, but Dean Wade has some skills that hide in plain sight. In comparison to his teammates, Wade is constantly moving for a better three point position or cutting into holes in the defense. This can lead to making the playmaker's life easier and open looks for himself.

https://youtu.be/I_D0DJRNfVc

https://youtu.be/1ZzYMO_BOJ0

Even when he is not getting the ball, he is helping teammates get open with his movement. He cuts at opportune times leading to his man remaining occupied with his movement. This leads to open space for drivers and spot-up shooters since his defender is not helping with the action.

https://youtu.be/rGNUDT7Zh8c

https://youtu.be/3hgZEYQhv0k

Compared to his former teammate Markkanen, he is a better extra passer. He isn't as trigger happy from three leading to him spotting the open man for easier threes. Though, I want to make sure not to paint him as a good passer. His low assist numbers may be due to his role in the offense, but he does miss some easier looks. In the second play, he misses the pass to the cutting Cedi.

https://youtu.be/Bu8ZdrAoLKU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfllAVx8-F0

DEFENSE

For most, Lauri Markkanen will be the benchmark for defense from the wing slot. He made strides in becoming a positive defender last year where he showcased a level of switchability we had not seen in his career to date. I do not see Lauri as a great defender because although he did improve, he has weaknesses and a lot of what he did was helped by the addition of Evan Mobley into the frontcourt with Jarrett Allen.

Wade can fill his hole immediately and then some. Wade normally plays split duties between the three and four spot when he is on the court. This makes his role completely different depending on the opponent he plays. He can act as the point of attack defender where he is stifling the on-ball creator. He can follow around a shooter disallowing open looks. He can play off of non-shooters and help in the paint. He is above average at almost every role thrown his way.

This is due to his ability to guard one through five. Watch below as Wade goes from guarding Tatum one-on-one to guarding the Schroeder Horford pick and roll and then keeping up with Schroeder's drive to the rim.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bf5YOHQEUuQ

When Wade is the point of attack defender, he is able to keep his man away from the rim without giving up enough space for a jump shot, but also can stick close enough without giving up lanes to the basket. He doesn't do this with elite speed or athleticism, but instead with good positioning, footwork, and reaction time.

He is able to give elite offensive wings pressure with these skills. A huge plus in Cleveland's new tall and small ball starting lineup. This allows Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen to stick to their roles dissuading any would-be rim runners and doesn't force one of Garland or Mitchell to guard above their abilities.

When Wade is switched with a guard, he isn't hopeless. For his size, he is able to stick with faster and shiftier players well. He uses small steps to quickly change direction with crossovers and hesitations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekFtVkML8KI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47CeMamMFOs

Dean Wade has two weaknesses at the point of attack. He can find himself overreacting to a play he thinks he sees coming leading to his man taking advantage of his positioning. In the play below, he overreacts to the hand-off leading to a Durant back-door and an easy basket.

Dean Wade can also find himself flat-footed and then is able to be blown-by by stars and role players alike. These moments are rare, but do happen. This is where he is helped by having a wall consisting of Mobley and Allen behind him.

https://youtu.be/r2A0BW6dQNk

https://youtu.be/JguaGMoWxgQ

Off the ball, Wade is a very good team defender. He has good awareness that allows him to react to breakdowns quickly or block driving/passing lanes. Since he does not have elite athleticism or size for a weak-side defender, he uses his positioning to make shots hard for all players. Just being able to put his body in front of the basket leads to some of these open layups becoming misses or non-attempts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=474M_6mB35A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djZBY8mkXnc

Wade does have a tendency to over-help. He has the right idea in sliding over in the event of a breakdown, but will stick around too long after the defensive play has cleaned up which can lead to wide open threes.

A lot of the Cavaliers' defensive schemes this year were based on loading the paint with defenders and allowing more three point opportunities. Wade seems to take too much to heart and can find himself in positions where he is not guarding anybody or helping with the active offensive play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMmhCSPmOTQ

https://youtu.be/a7Xb9zXMzB4

However, I believe this tendency is fixable. Wade has shown very good positioning in his career so far. He can see where a play could occur and moves his body to mitigate the damage the offense can do. For example, when his other weakside teammate needs to help in the paint, he slides over to cut off the pass to both men. This allows him to close out on either player to make for harder shots when the pass does get through.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCV8UZ-ptj8

In the play below, the pass over Isaiah Jackson is available so Wade places himself where he can defend the pass if it is made, but he is close enough to his defender not to allow an open shot. This allows his other teammates to stay home and not lead to additional breakdowns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NY28F1Ide0

One of Wade's most important skills is his use as a utility defender. He is able to switch from guards to forwards to bigs on a moment's notice. This leads to holes being patched before they are punctured and can completely nullify plays setup by the opponent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmXFoCRM0Sg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyzUvLf_qv0

CONCLUSION

Dean Wade's balance of good catch-and-shoot ability and defensive skills make him the most suitable three in Cleveland's starting lineup. Only Okoro can match Wade's defensive versatility, but does not come close to matching Wade's ability to shoot at volume from distance.

Dean Wade is not some elite role player like your PJ Tucker's and Mikal Bridge's of the world, but for the Cavaliers' current roster, he can fit in that type of role. Wade does not need the ball to succeed on offense and has abilities off-ball that makes his teammates lives easier. He also has the ability to provide point-of-attack defense that won't lead to many breakdowns and the defensive IQ to patch up the mistakes of his teammates.

The Cavaliers will continue to work to find someone who is able to provide Wade's defensive impact, but has the ability to provide more spacing. These players are rare and Cleveland is not a free-agent destination so it may take Koby Altman some magic to find themselves in a position of having an elite swiss army knife. In the meantime, Wade is a serviceable player of this caliber and should have the opportunity to start next season.

(1) Taken for the data set of 2021-22 players that shot at least 20 C&S attempts

all statistics taken and derived from basketball-reference.com and nba.com/stats unless otherwise noted

This is my site, I just made it. Feedback's appreciated. This is not AI, it's natural language processing.

https://hoopvisionlab.com/build?game=21717963&ref=reddit-clevelandcavs

(Yeah I know, the canvas stretched further than I was expecting…)

First off, this is only the 2nd 'Wake up' post i've made in 12 years of posting here, the first was Darius at the beginning of his 2nd year, I reserve this wording for a player taking a leap in development that largely isn't being recognized

The national media won't say it, but we should know...

Ice is the best perimeter defender in the league

The recent resume

That accounts for almost 1/5th of the season, I count 4 Hall of Famers in that list, this isn't a fluke

Mitchell already knows and is campaigning for his guy

Ice is on a direct path to the all-defensive team, he's been special in this stretch let's enjoy and acknowledge it.

How does he do it?

Strength of a PF with the hips of a 2 guard, he mirrors defenders really well allowing him to take away their air space to get a quick pull up off (Dame's bread and butter for example)

His strength allows him to absorb contact when players drive on him and push them off their line to the lane, turning a layup into a fade away

He's not playing overly aggressive, he's under control, he has never averaged more than 2 fouls per game in any season

What else can we expect moving forward

This isn't that new, Okoro has had games where he's bothered all-nba smaller guards dating back to his rookie year (one example, specifically holding a league leading Beal to his worst night of his season shooting 21%), it's that he's now consistently doing it.

Here's my pre-draft scouting report on Ice, if you want some insight into his game (186 upvotes, worth your time)

While this offseason is about re-signing Donovan, ICE will be on our list of players to pay too (RFA this offseason, we'll match anything thrown at him)

He's going to continue to close out games, his on-ball defense is just that valuable...what our closing lineup looks like it going to be interesting (our offense and defensive subs at end of game are killers in Sam and Ice)

the player he currently most reminds me of is GS era Andre Iguodala (which was one of his ceiling comps in my draft preview)

Early Bird rights allow 105% of average league salary which is somewhere between $10 and $12M. Guessing Jerome will get an offer from somewhere in that range - probably a 4 year deal. Thoughts on whether or not the Cavs will offer something competitive? I think Ty may take a little money to stay here. Fingers crossed

I've seen a lot of people are pretty out on Sexton right now and feel like the cavs are right to move on from him. I personally think it's a mistake, but also feel like a lot of the conversation just isn't grounded in the realities of his game, the league contract market, his contract negotiations, which is warping the conversation.

*I think a lot of people forget why Sexton was viewed as a young star

In his 3rd season at age 22, Sexton had a spectacular year. To put it in perspective, here is Sexton compared to other guards in their 3rd year:

Looking at their consistency using bb-ref's shot distribution chart (games per point -range)

The reasons I was extremely excited for his development: he was improving a ton every year, he was moving off ball, his FTAs were going up and he was finishing through contact, his energy level is insane, his effort on defense was improving, his trajectory was steeper than other all stars.

Common Concerns:

*Sexton is too short

He's undersized for a guard. He's ~6'1", 6'2" in shoes. He does have length with a 6'6" wingspan. His Standing Reach is 2 inches shorter than a prototypical SG like Okoro, 1.5" shorter than bradley beal. He's also put on a lot of lower body strength since entering the league. He was not only short for a guard, he was skinny. He's gotten a lot stronger.

*Sexton and Garland are a bad fit on offense

It was definitely a bad fit Garland's rookie year. But when Sexton was scoring 24ppg, Garland was the lead ball handler. He had more Time of Possession, more dribbles, etc. Sexton was assisted on 68% of his 3s in 2020-21 and 82% in 2021-22.

*Cavs offense was better without Sexton

It's his ability to create scoring from the perimeter that was so valuable and what the cavs needed so badly this year. They had 5 fewer drives a game this year than last year. Their offense was marginally better this year - they improved from worst in the league to 5th worst in the league. But they also added Lauri, Mobley, and had Allen for a full season. Their 3PA are still super low (22nd), and in 2020-21 he was their second best best 3pt shooter.

*Cavs can't play Garland and Sexton on defense

It's definitely not ideal, won't pretend otherwise. But sexton has gotten better and will hopefully continue to get better on defense. He has the effort and energy to be good and his strength has improved. People obsess over his size, but there are other SGs with prototypical size that play terrible defense and it isn't viewed as an impossible fit. The cavs have 3 7 footers to pair with garland and sexton, and if they can't survive defensively due to an average SG, then I don't think Mobley and Allen are as good as people say they are. Should also note that the cavs were 7th in the league with a DRtg of 109.7 this past regular season, but they had a DRtg of 107.9 before Sexton was injured.

*Sexton is a ball hog and chucker

Sexton had a shooting slump to start 2021-2022 (10 full games before he was injured), so his efficiency doesn't look great there. But in his last full season he scoring at 57% TS. He had league average or above TS in 2 of his 3 first years. He's a career 38% shooter from 3. He's efficient from 2 as a guard as well: 50% as a sophomore, 51% his 3rd year, and 54% last year. There has actually been reporting that the team has had to encourage him to shoot more from 3. As for ball hogging, he has given over ball handling duties to Garland 2 years ago, and last year he played off ball of both Garland and Rubio. 2 years ago, his last full season, he had 6 fewer passes a game than garland and 9 potential assists. That was comparable to Halliburton, Mitchell, Lavine, Dejounte Murray, Jamal Murray, Lonzo Ball. And that's while playing on literally the worst shooting team in the league where he was 1 of 2 3pt shooters and a roster with no lob threats the majority of the season. Him passing more would have been for... Point Drummond? Please god, never again. He was the only real scoring option on that team and was still a willing passer.

Asset Management

Even if none of that sways you to bet on Sexton's upside, I believe forcing sexton to take the qualifying offer is dereliction of duty when it comes to asset management. For those of you who don't understand the process, Sexton is currently a RFA. The way it typically works is that a team and player cannot reach a deal, so the team signs the Qualifying Offer and the player then waits for other teams to make an offer. Once that offer is received, the Cavaliers have the opportunity to match that contract and retain Sexton's services. If no offer comes in, then the player can decide to take whatever deal his team has offered or play under the QO to become a Unrestricted Free Agent the following off season.

Right now Sexton is very unlucky. There were very few teams had cap space to make offers. Detroit likely would have made an offer, but they ended up having Ivey fall to them and decide that was it. The Spurs could make an offer, but they seem to be satisfied with their current guards and want to bottom out anyway. The pacers spent/lost a number of assets to create cap space for Ayton, and now have cap space. But they have the guards they want already.

Why doesn't another team create cap space for him/why didn't knicks go after him? After it cost the knicks a lot to create that cap space, they decided to target Brunson. They both had a personal connection with Brunson, and had the opportunity to sign him out right. Any offer they made to sexton may have been matched by the Cavs, leaving them with nothing. What happened to teh pacers with ayton is why RFA offers are pretty rare. Teams with a need for an asset like Sexton, like the Mavs, would have to undergo a lot of painful cap clearing to make an offer, and even then they would not be guaranteed his services.

As a result, the cavs have elected to low-ball sexton with a number that beats any offer on the market this year- 3/40. Which is imo an insultingly low number even if you don't think sexton is all that great. I disagree with this strategy. Imo sexton will elect for the QO over such a low contract and become an UFA next off season where he will assuredly get a much better offer.

This is not good for the Cavs. It means he likely walks in UFA next off season for nothing. The cavs are also already against the cap and roster number, so it will not be easy to trade the QO for any real value. The other issue is that QOs do not keep bird rights, so their value as an asset is pretty low. This situation turns a rising young star into a couple of 2nds in a mid season trade.

TL;DR

Solution

The only real solution in my opinion, even if you don't believe in his upside, is to try and come to terms of a reasonable 3-4 year deal around 20 million per year. Try to offer something around 3/56-66 or 4/80. It lets sexton prove his value, it keeps him on a very fair contract number, and it doesn't handicap the future. The cavs have Levert and Love coming off the books next year, Cedi can be moved, Mobley is on a rookie deal for 3 more years. In 4 years a 20m dollar contract will be absolutely moveable. MLE is already 10 and going to be 13+ by then. If it seriously is a disaster before then it will not be something that cripples than franchise, and if he continues to grow on the trajectory he has already, it would be a massive asset even if he doesn't fit.

Some other contracts around the league for context (annual average value):

Brunson - 26

Simons - 25

Rozier - 24

Hield - 24

Conley - 23

Brogdon -21

Grant - 20

Lonzo - 20

Eric Gordon - 19

Tim Hardaway - 19

Harris - 19

Keldon Johnson - 19

Fournier - 18

Robinson - 18

Powell - 18

White - 18

Isaac - 17

Dort - 17

Huerter - 16

Bertans - 16

Malik Beasley - 15

Kennard - 14

Bagley - 13

And yes, I know many of these players are on bad contracts, but that doesn't matter. Signed contracts set the market. Player agents don't think a bad player getting paid means his good player doesn't deserve more money; quite the opposite.

Good to see him back out there

As soon as Cleveland acquired Strus, I started going back and watching Strus’ minutes with the Heat just trying to sneak a glimpse of what he may look like on the Cavs. The Cavs, of course, picked him up for a reason. After a disappointing loss to the Knicks in the first round, the team's needs were clear: spacing around their two guards and two bigs. Strus provides this in spades with efficient volume three point shooting without sacrificing defense (JB wouldn’t want to lose that number one defensive rating next year). The thing is, Strus had a rough shooting season last year. On the year, he shot 35% from behind the arc on 9.3 attempts per 75 possessions. That percentage is actually worse than one of the guys Strus is replacing, Cedi Osman, who shot 37.2% last year.

So why Strus?

Strus had an incredible 2021-22 campaign that saw him shooting 41% on 10.4 attempts per 75 possessions. He was one of two players that season to play more than 200 minutes and shoot 10 per 75 possessions with above 40% efficiency from behind the arc. And it wasn’t a fluke, while his peer did this over near 600 minutes, Strus did it over 1600 minutes.

I wanted to see what changed. And the answer reminded me of a familiar monster. The 2019-20 Bubble Heat.

The bubble Heat revolutionized and weaponized the dribble hand-off. It’s how the Heat ran through the Eastern conference and how they were able to throw punches at the Lakers. It basically created a play that used a more traditional non-spacing big and gave them an opportunity to space the floor. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson learned how to master it. While the league has largely adopted this play in just three years, the Heat put Strus through the same regiment this last season.

youtube video

It didn't exactly work.

I watched and tracked every Strus three point shot last season. I wanted to show how many of his shots were catch-and-shoot (C&S), dribble hand-off (DHO), pick-and-roll (PNR), off-screen (OS), and passed-into-screen (PIS) opportunities.

Strus is not the DHO master that Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, and others have become. However, he is still a dynamic three point shot taker and maker that opponents have to respect.

By bringing Strus into more complex ball-handling situations, the Heat got him to show a bit of his playmaking. The DHO, PNR, OS, and PIS situations are all very similar, but keep the defense on their toes as they do not know how the ballhandler will get the ball. Strus uses these opportunities to create advantages for others. While Strus is not an elite dribbler, he is a reliable one. He can get into the paint and around some crowds.

Strus will not be expected to be a ballhandler, however having the ability to handle just makes Cleveland's offense more dynamic. If the defense has to worry about Strus in multiple ways, driving, shooting, and passing, something is bound to break down. Imagine Mobley or Allen in Adebayo's position for these plays and you can already imagine Strus in Cleveland.

youtube video

Strus embodies the Heat team philosophy of extra passing and always finding the best shots (unless your name is Jimmy Butler then every shot is the best shot). He is a willing extra passer and he is constantly moving on the offensive end. A lot of the C&S opportunities tracked came from Strus moving to a better spot rather than sitting and watching the ball come.

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He is good at sitting and watching the ball come as well which Cleveland will welcome with open arms. Besides Garland and Mitchell, he will easily be the best C&S player they have. Instead of having Okoro and Stevens eating minutes in the corner, you will have Strus, who in his career has shot 47.5% from the corner.

Even with his lack of shooting success on these ballhandler duty threes, the Cavaliers shouldn't stop putting him into these opportunities altogether. A lot of what will make Strus an important piece on the Cavaliers moving forward will be his movement and shooting threat without the ball, but mixing in these on-ball opportunities will keep defenders occupied. As Cavaliers fans well know, no player outside of Mitchell and Garland was commanding that attention in the playoffs last year.

What is realistic for Strus' shooting next year is to fall somewhere in the middle of his amazing 2021-22 season and tame 2022-23 season. With that, the Cavaliers should have their small forward for the foreseeable future and a valuable piece in their playoff journey.

all statistics taken and derived from basketball-reference.com and nba.com/stats unless otherwise noted

We had many fun nights together

Really enjoyed seeing him play live, had to make a piece because this kid has hops..

[Hi, all! I originally created this for the general NBA audience of r/nba, but figured I'd post here, too. My "Darius Garland is a goldfish" post from this past summer was well-received here, so hopefully you enjoy this one also!]

There has been so much handwringing about Evan Mobley and his failure to develop a three-point shot. The Cleveland Cavaliers had massive success for nearly two months by surrounding Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen with shooters; while the team has consistently won since Mobley’s return, most of the talk about the Cavs centers around the broken-jigsaw fit of having two non-shooting bigs in the starting lineup. It’s a fair conversation to have, but it also doesn’t paint the whole picture.

First, let us address the trumpeting elephant in the room: No, Mobley has not miraculously turned into a sniper since his return from injury. After arthroscopic knee surgery to remove loose bodies in his knee, Mobley spent much of the time he missed talking about — and practicing — three-pointers. It hasn’t mattered.

Mobley is still reluctant to let it fly from behind the arc. I hand-tracked his triples this season (that’s not an “eat the tape” humblebrag; it took about three seconds). Mobley has only attempted 25 triples all season. 15 of those have come in the 12 games since Jan 29th, when Mobley returned from injury. So that’s an improvement, and he is technically 40% from deep! But 1.25 attempts per game does not change how defenses treat him, and it’s merely in line with his averages before this season.

[Hello, everyone! Thanks for reading. As always, I've collected a bunch of illustrative video clips for this post. You can view them in-context here]

Out of his 15 misfires, one was blocked, and one was a heave. Out of the remaining 13, nine were short. He seldom misses long, right, or left. Consistently missing short can be a product of nerves as much as poor shot biomechanics.

It’s a lizard-or-the-egg thing: Mobley doesn’t make many threes because he isn’t confident, but because he’s not confident, he doesn’t make many. It’s a vicious ouroboros. And as national discourse will let you know, this is a capital-P Problem when the team also starts a former All-Star at center in Jarrett Allen.

The Problem, laid out: Allen and Mobley are fantastic defensive players with real offensive skills, but the Cavs simply have trouble scoring when they share the court. Their 112.6 points per 100 possessions is in the 30th percentile for all lineups.

Interestingly, the team actually has a slightly worse offense when Mobley is the lone big (and gets outscored overall); meanwhile, when Allen is the center without Mobley on the court, the team scores a strong 120.3 points per 100 and blitzes teams by a substantial margin.

But the “Mobley = less spacing = less scoring” talk oversimplifies things. Most obviously, Allen/Mobley lineups get it back on the other end. Those lineups only allow 108 points per 100, 95th percentile for all lineups. That number stays true with Mitchell and Garland sharing the court, too.

For the season, lineups with all four of Mobley, Allen, Mitchell, and Garland have performed well, scoring at a median rate (yes, really) while locking teams down defensively. Those groups are winning their minutes by a comfortable, though not monstrous, margin. And the numbers are better since Mobley’s return on Jan 29th. As a team, the Cavs are eighth in offense and third in defense since then, even as Mobley and guard Darius Garland work their way back from injury.

Sure, the schedule has been bounce-house soft. But that stretch also included a win over the Clippers and a blowout of the Kings. The Cavs are 10-3 since Mobley’s return; two of those losses occurred when Donovan Mitchell, the team’s best player, was out sick, and the remaining loss was by two points.

So yes, Mobley’s offensive fit isn’t perfect next to Allen. But that doesn’t mean it can’t work, and to be honest, I’m not particularly interested in what they should do in the offseason just yet. The Cavs are here now, and they’re good. They’re second in the East! Mobley remains a big part of that, even if his injury has prevented him from showing his peak form.

The shot is one — very important! — thing, but Mobley has made a number of improvements to other parts of his game this season while battling the knee injury (and recovery process). The quiet things matter, too.

His already impressive defense has only gotten better. He demolishes foes one-on-one: opponents score just 0.64 points per possession against him on an island, even better than last year’s excellent showing. It’s almost the exact same number when ballhandlers attempt to test him in the pick-and-roll this season, again among the league’s best and a far better mark than last year’s .92 points per possession.

Mobley has become a master of verticality. He’s a quick jumper who blocks a shocking number of floaters, a shot specifically designed to get over the heads of defenders like Mobley before they can react: [video here]

He’s now one of the league’s best big-man close-out artists. He scuttles rapidly to the shooter like a tap-dancing crustacean, hands out but perfectly balanced. His length allows him to contest shooters (or at least face-guard) without having to leave his feet, allowing him to bottle up foolish attempts to attack: [video here]

There have also been offensive improvements, even if they’re not the ones people want. In the playoffs last year, Mobley struggled in space against the New York Knicks. He’d get the ball on the short roll, and you could see the wheels turning in his head as he froze. The offense seemingly ground to a halt whenever he touched the rock.

This year, Mobley's become a more decisive passer. He’s averaging a career-high 3.2 assists per 36 minutes, which would be higher if the team’s offense didn’t have two ball-dominant guards (and fifth starter Max Strus and Allen are sneaky-good passers, too). There is future post-hub potential with Mobley. He’s more creative with his angles: [video here]

He can even run the occasional big-big pick-and-roll. This is catnip for basketball nerds (*bats at highlight, sneezes, falls asleep*):

[video here]

When Mobley decides to attack (and yes, he should attack more), he’s not settling for half-hooks as often. A significant portion of his diet has shifted from floater range to right at the rack, boosting his shot profile. That holds even when he’s playing next to Allen. He’s putting a crowbar into the defense’s cracks and forcing just enough space for spinny finger-rolls and Stretch Armstrong dunks.

Mobley’s best offensive skill has become cutting, and he’s developed fantastic timing with Garland and Strus, especially: [video here]

Mobley’s rebounding has upgraded, too, and this isn’t simply a result of him playing more center (although that is the reason for his slight uptick in fouls). Weirdly, he actually has a higher rebounding rate as a power forward.

For what it’s worth, his free throw percentage has improved each year and currently sits at 73%, which could matter at the end of games.

In other words, Mobley is getting better. We all agree that Mobley would be significantly improved with a three-point shot. A more aggressive mindset would be welcome, too. Both would fix a lot of what ails Cleveland. But that shot ain’t coming this season, so the team needs to ensure that they put themselves in the best position to succeed with what they have. Mobley is polishing other aspects of his game to help.

The conversation reminds me of the talk around Bam Adebayo, whose subtle improvements over the years never seem to satisfy a fanbase constantly bleating for more, more, more. And to some extent, I get it. When a player’s ceiling is as high as Mobley’s, and the way to reach it is so obvious, how couldn’t fans get frustrated?

But real-life basketball players aren’t 2K simulacrums. You can’t spend real money to change a player’s DNA (although teams certainly try!). Mobley will likely earn a max rookie extension this summer, and he has limitless potential, particularly at center, surrounded by shooters. But evidence suggests he’s also not as good a center as Jarrett Allen right now; for the short term, the Cavs will continue staggering them as much as possible, hoping the defensive dominance when they do share the court outweighs any offensive sludginess. It’s not a perfect solution, but basketball doesn’t hand out too many of those. The Cavs are making lemonade out of some pretty good lemons.

There are still a few cards to play in the playoffs, too. Max Strus has almost always been the fifth wheel for the core four. Can we see some Dean Wade there, perhaps? Wade is bigger and stronger than Strus and likely a better positional defender (although Strus is feisty). He doesn’t have the quick trigger Strus does, but he is a more accurate shooter. It would be an interesting playoff wrinkle to run out bigger lineups that theoretically don’t sacrifice much shooting. Georges Niang in that spot creates a similar look, although Wade is the better player.

Between Strus, Wade, Niang, defensive ace Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert, and the emergence of super-shooter Sam Merrill, the Cavs aren’t limited to one or two role-player permutations. They can put out enough trees to fill a forest, opt to field four shooters, or go for a tenacious defensive lineup. We might even see Mobley, Allen, or Garland sit minutes in crunch time if the team gets desperate. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff will have to figure out how best to utilize the tools at his disposal (something he’s struggled with at times), but he’s got a full workbench to play with, at least.

The playoffs expose all. Last year, it showed that Mobley and the Cavs were too limited. This year’s team is deeper; more importantly, this year’s Mobley is even better. Whether the subtle improvements on the margins are enough to propel Cleveland deep into the spring will be a source of agony to Cavs fans until then.