This is how the Islamic Republic treats their Oscar nominees.

FILMS FEATURED:

ARTIFICIAL
BACKROOMS
BEHEMOTH!
BLUE HERON
CLUB KID
THE DEBUT
DIGGER
THE DRAMA
DUNE: PART THREE
ELSINORE
FJORD
HOPPERS
THE INVITE
JOSEPHINE
LA BOLA NEGRA
MICHAEL
MISTY GREEN
NAZA
OBSESSION
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HARLEM
THE ODYSSEY
THE ONLY LIVING PICKPOCKET IN NEW YORK
PRIMETIME
PROJECT HAIL MARY
RAY GUNN
REHEARSALS FOR A REVOLUTION
ROSE
SENSE AND SENSIBILITY
THE SOCIAL RECKONING
SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY
TENDER LOVING CARE
TONY
TOY STORY 5
WICKER
WILD HORSE NINE
WILDWOOD
WUTHERING HEIGHTS
YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING
YOUR MOTHER YOUR MOTHER YOUR MOTHER

Now that a few decent Documentary Feature bellwether lists are out, figured I'd do a little count of what has appeared so far. The ones I'm including are Critics Choice Documentary Awards (Best Feature) nom, DOC NYC Short List, Gotham Awards nom, IDA Shortlist, and SCAD Docs to Watch.

Of these, I think DOC NYC and Gothams are the strongest indicators. CCDAs have a spotty track record, SCAD is just Scott Feinberg and requires filmmaker attendance so some international docs can't do it, and the IDA shortlist is a mixed bag of some "real contenders" and some international docs that never show up elsewhere...

Five:
You Can See Everything (Gothams, DOC NYC, IDA, SCAD, CCDAs)

Four:
Once Upon a Time in Harlem (CCDAs, Gothams, DOC NYC, SCAD)

Three:
A Fox Under a Pink Moon (Gothams, DOC NYC, IDA)
Naza (CCDAs, Gothams, DOC NYC)
One in a Million (DOC NYC, IDA, SCAD)

Two:
14th (CCDAs, DOCNYC)
American Doctor (DOC NYC, SCAD)
Everest: The Other Side (CCDAs, SCAD)
Everybody to Kenmure Street (CCDAs, DOC NYC)
Musk (CCDAs, DOC NYC)
My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile (IDA, SCAD)
Rehearsals for a Revolution (CCDAs, IDA)
To Hold a Mountain (DOC NYC, IDA)

One:
Avedon (SCAD)
The Bend in the River (DOC NYC)
Birds of War (IDA)
Closure (Gothams)
Concrete Land (IDA)
Cookie Queens (SCAD)
Do You Love Me (IDA)
The Eyes of Ghana (IDA)
The Fabulous Time Machine (IDA)
Filthy (IDA)
The Great Experiment (DOC NYC)
The History of Concrete (CCDAs)
The Last First: Winter K2 (SCAD)
A Life Illuminated (IDA)
Nuestra Tierra / Our Land (IDA)
Nuisance Bear (IDA)
Remake (CCDAs)
Silver (IDA)
Soul Patrol (DOC NYC)
Time and Water (DOC NYC)
The Trial of Alec Baldwin (SCAD)
Wild Inside (DOC NYC)

This article contains spoilers about a surprise appearance in this film.

In two weeks of release, “You Can See Everything” has grossed $45 million at the box office. Directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, the documentary has a near-perfect score on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and audiences alike. And its take on Elizabeth Holmes, the confounding founder of Theranos who was convicted of fraud, has everyone talking.

Now the question is, what are its Oscar chances?

The film’s distributor, A24, isn’t commenting but two people close to the production with knowledge of the studio’s thinking expect it to campaign for best picture, best supporting actress and best documentary. It may also make a showing in the editing, cinematography, score and director categories.

Should Amanda Seyfried land a nomination for playing Holmes in the recreations within the film, it would be the first time an actress has been nominated in the supporting category for a role in a documentary.

And no documentary has ever been nominated for best picture. “Fahrenheit 9/11,” the 2004 film directed by Michael Moore that currently holds the title for highest-grossing nonconcert documentary, may have come the closest, considering its effect on the cultural conversation that year, but it was shut out. More surprising: it was also shut out of the best documentary race, a fate that has befallen many a popular documentary.

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Here's a few comments on them :

Picture : Removed Obsession and put YCSE. I was confident early that Obsession could pull it off but with how many strobger contenders are there, including many populist choices, I don't think it has a place. However, I'm still very sceptical about YCSE making it, and imo its nomination would be the win

Director : Removed Denis for Fielder/Oppenheim. I think this duo is going to be really strong and if YCSE makes it I think they're almost guaranteed. I still feel confident in Wilde but people are sleeping on Denis Villeneuve, since Warner is gonna campaign hard for it I could totally see a "here's a nomination for the whole trilogy" moment for him.

Actor : the first 4 I feel very confident in, but 5th is a battle between at least 4 contenders. Imo I still thinn Cruise is in despite Digger falling off. It's flashy and loud and people in the industry will rally behind it. Pascal and Pattinson are just behind.

Actress : Similarly feel very confident in the first 4, but I have doubts about Huller making it for Rose as a second international actress. I could see her taking Efira place but I think a split between her two performances might happen and make her slip. Madeley feel like a good lone nom and I feel confident it will happen

S.Actor : I have Norton missing, but him or Leguizamo are interchangeable. People are sleeping on DelaFuente if LBN is as strong as predicted imo. I also don't feel super confident in Giamatti winning and could see Garfield taking it with the right boost

S.Actress : the fifth one I put in black is REDACTED from YCSE. If she end up not being eligible, I will go for either one of LBN ladies or Morton, which I think isn't as safe some people think she is. I also think people are sleeping on Huller for PHM if that movie gets a great campaign from Amazon. A long shot but I used to predict her for a while. Also Cruz is for the Invite

O. Screenplay : I have Possible Love in after Obsession dropping. It feels like a good contender and Lee Chang Dong is more appreciated than Park was last year. However it's not safe and I could totally see Club Kid take that fifth spot

A.Screenplay : no comment on this one.

International : Removed Rose after predicting Sandra missing. Minotaur seems to be gaining some strengths from critics and the Grand Prix will help its chances.

Animation : I made a post a few days ago about this if you're curious. I still think Iron Boy will be the indie pick but im looking out for Tangles rising.

The debate surrounding my post about Anne Hathaway being the Supporting Actress front-runner made me consider other actresses that I thought stole scenes in their movies, yet no one is talking about...

Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma;

Hailey Gates, The Drama;

Hong Chau, Wuthering Heights;

Fiona Shaw, Sense and Sensibility;

Havana Rose Liu, Tuner;

Demi Moore, I Love Boosters

Tom Holland

Robert Pattinson

John Leguizamo

Worlds colliding episode here — some wild picks. I have to say that Ryan suggesting Paul might miss is bold but smart. Chris the only one not on the Guitarrica train, but holding strong on Colman. Katey has Pattinson winning — almost makes me want to believe it.

Seven out of seventeen critics now predict La bola negra to win compared with six for The Odyssey and four for You Can See Everything. This seems strange to me considering the site is still predicting The Odyssey to win eight awards including Best Director. Does this mean anything?