"Magic number" math remains simple as long as Notre Dame remains unblemished and is in control of its own destiny. Basic assumptions remain thus:
Notre Dame is 99.999% "in" at 11-1. So that means Notre Dame is locked in if they can get to 11 wins. However, seeding is going to be a big deal, as perceptions with this schedule are going to mean ND might need help to get a home playoff game at 11-1, and even a top 4 seed isn't out of reach.
Power 4 teams with two losses are penciled in behind Notre Dame for now. Power 4 teams with 3 losses are eliminated from contention. I'm sure the SEC will piss and moan its way into getting 9-3 Texas in there eventually, but there's still a long ways to go and even the worst Doomers would have to agree that ND is in ahead of them at 11-1 at least.
Conference championship wins will almost certainly catapult teams that win them one spot above their station and we all know that losses in those games won't matter as far as Notre Dame is concerned, so keep that in mind. Thankfully there's only 4 conference championships, so for bigger picture stuff, it's also not worth worrying about for now.
ACC: 17 teams
Undefeated teams: 1
One loss teams: 2
Two loss teams: 2
Last week recap:
A low key pretty ideal weekend from the ACC. Stanford and BC both got upset wins, as ND's schedule quietly gets less and less ass every weekend. UNC lost, but to a Syracuse that's on ND's schedule, so a bit of a wash. SMU and Miami avoided upsets.
Week 7:
SMU @ Syracuse FPI: SMU, 71.6% chance, spread: SMU -12.5
SMU is a VERY bipolar looking team, struggling with bad teams at home and somehow dogwalking a decent Cal. They go on the road to Syracuse, who showed a pulse last weekend against UNC (Angeli got a win, good for him). I think SMU just has to avoid getting upset the next couple of weeks and they'll likely stay ranked win or lose against Wake Forest. If they somehow go 3-0 down the stretch, SMU is very likely a top 10 ranked team, as crazy as that sounds.
BC @ Duke FPI: Duke, 77.6% chance, spread: Duke -7.5
BC is actually looking a little spicy right now. That road loss to Cincinnati doesn't seem quite so bad, and they played SMU close on the road. They are 2-0 down the stretch with wins over Pitt (meh) and GT (awful), but getting a win at Duke could really make sure ND takes them seriously. If they pull of the upset here, they are just a win against FSU at home away from coming to ND bowl eligible, something I didn't think was possible.
Virginia @ Wake Forest FPI: WF, 81.6% chance, spread: WF -14
Wake Forest is a bit of a surprise this season, giving Miami a bit of a game, then beating a ranked UL on the road to start a 4 game win streak. They have an FCS game after this one, them vs. SMU on November 14th could be HUGE for the ACC implications. I'd like to see SMU and Miami get a bit of a cushion, I'm still not sold on Wake as being a top 15 team in truth.
Miami @ North Carolina FPI: Miami, 89.8% chance, spread: Miami -14.5
I can't help but wonder if Syracuse was like some sort of trap game for UNC, who rattled off road wins at Pitt and Duke before falling to Syracuse at home of all things, bizarre. Anyway, I'd like to see UNC give Miami a game where they cover the spread but still lose. Certainly if Jelani Thurman can be half the wrecking ball to Miami's secondary (concussed Leonard Moore on their final drive, banged up Shuler HARD on the first drive and beyond) as he was to ND's secondary, they will be feeling it the following week against ND. At the very least, this game should be a good measuring stick. If they need OT or something to beat UNC, I'll feel great about November 7th. If they beat UNC by 35, well, it could be a bit disheartening. I just want UNC to wear them down, ND should be rested despite a road game to Navy.
ACC Overview: 1-2 bid league
ACC standings are really winnowing out to look like a battle between SMU and Wake for 2nd place in the conference. VT has a bye week and could slip into the picture with an upset @ SMU I suppose.
Big 12: 16 teams
Undefeated teams: 1
One loss teams: 3
Two loss teams: 3
Last week recap:
It's pretty wild to see the Big 12 with 6 ranked teams. They are delivering more chaos than I thought possible, which is nice. I wonder where BYU would be ranked if ND had gotten a TD on that last drive? One second can make such a huge difference for a team's fortunes.
Week 7:
Arizona @ Texas Tech FPI: TTU, 67.1% chance, spread: TTU -3
This spread opened at -7.5 and is now down to -3. Zona still has Utah coming up on the schedule, while Texas Tech's toughest game is @ Ok. State. It seems like a no brainer to root for Arizona here, as Texas Tech could continue reeling from a loss.
Arizona State @ BYU FPI: BYU, 90.2% chance, spread: Houston -16.5
This is going to be controversial and I know I'm going to get some pushback for it. And ND would probably drop more in the AP poll if BYU were to lose again. I don't care, the AP poll doesn't matter and "quality losses" are not a thing. Once they beat ND, they became yet another team ND is competing with for a seed, and most importantly, a team ND essentially lost a tiebreaker to as well. We need to root for them to finish with a worse record than Notre Dame at this point. IMO the sweet spot is them dropping this game while looking ahead to a big one against Utah and hopefully getting a win there, or maybe just let Utah run away with the Big 12 at this point.
Utah @ Cincinnati FPI: Utah, 70.7% chance, spread: Utah -6.5
Can Cinci knock down an undefeated team 2 weeks in a row? Talk about a rough stretch of schedule for them, @ Arizona, @ WVU, Texas Tech, Utah, then @ Houston. Any wins they get during that stretch are fantastic for ND, IMO.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State FPI: Ok. State, 71.4% chance, spread: Ok. State -8.5
Iowa State is pretty bad and I'm fully expecting them to get blown out here, but who knows. They lost to a bad Tulsa team but beat Oregon on the road.
Big 12 Overview: 2-3 Bid league
ND did the Big 12 a huge favor by losing that BYU game. There's currently a lot of highly ranked bad teams in the Big 12, it would be nice to see them all continue to go down, Utah being public enemy number 1 for ND.
Big 10: 18 teams
Undefeated teams: 1
One loss teams: 3
Two loss teams: 5
Last week recap:
I am not sad at all to see Michigan lose, but man, could Tommy Carr have just gotten 1 touchdown? Still though, Oregon lost to a terrible Illinois team, Iowa got upset and most importantly, Wisconsin dominated USC.
Week 7:
Wisconsin @ Iowa FPI: Iowa, 42.7% chance, spread: Iowa -3.5
Wisconsin is in fantastic shape in terms of the Big 10 if they can win this game. Their toughest remaining game after that would be a road game against Purdue (per FPI). Believe it or not, they have an 18% chance now of finishing 10-2. That shoots up to 41% if they can win this game. I predict a 13-6 kind of final score, possibly with a defensive scoop and score, or a special teams TD.
Minnesota @ Indiana FPI: Indiana, 96.0% chance, spread: Indiana -20.5
Normally I wouldn't mention a game that looks so lopsided for one opponent, but something about FPI and the spread here feels... off. For the record, I think Minnesota will cover the spread but still lose by 2 TD's, but Indiana went to OT against a pretty bad Michigan. Now Minnesota is a moderately worse team than Michigan, but still it's weird to me that this spread is so large. Minnesota has a decent defense and a putrid offense. I could see them dragging IU into the mud with them and boy would an upset be HUGE.
Northwestern @ Oregon FPI: Oregon, 70.2% chance, spread: Oregon -3.5
Northwestern is finally getting into the more difficult part of their schedule after getting PSU at home, Ball State, barely beating MSU and then Rutgers, and now they have Oregon, Iowa and OSU all left. Oregon is a team ND should be rooting for moving forward since they have 3 losses now.
Ohio State @ USC FPI: OSU, 82.8% chance, spread: OSU -6.5
Yes, my apologies, I'm rooting for USC in this one. I love ND more than I hate USC and OSU going down in this game is very much in ND's interests. However, I have my strong doubts, even with Sayin out. Drew Pyne went into Southern Cal against a Lincoln Riley coached team with Braden Lenzy, Deion Colzie and Lorenzo Styles as his WR's and threw 23-26 for over 300 yards. Jeremiah Smith might catch 23 passes and get over 300 yards by himself in this one. But you never know, it's going to come down to Maiava keeping the turnovers down, IMO.
Washington @ Nebraska FPI: Nebraska, 87.0% chance, spread: Nebraska -7.5
It's easy to forget about Nebraska, considering they've lost a couple of games in a row headed into a bye week. But they played Indiana close at home, and Oregon close on the road. Their schedule is pretty manageable the next few weeks and they'll get Ohio State at home and that is one I think OSU is very much in danger of losing with Sayin out. I'd like to see them catch a loss now just so they don't shoot up the rankings suddenly with a win over Ohio State.
Big 10 Overview: 3-4 Bid league
If OSU or Indiana were to get upset this weekend, it really might turn into a 2-3 bid league, which is kind of crazy to think about now. But then again, if you said Dante Moore and Julian Sayin were to go down for the year, maybe it's not that wild to think about...
SEC: 16 teams
Undefeated teams: 0
One loss teams: 2
Two loss teams: 7
Last week summary:
The bottom of the SEC is finally getting some dang upsets and it's been fun to watch the cousin lovers tie themselves into knots on the other subreddits.
Week 7:
Auburn @ Ole Miss FPI: Ole Miss, 74.9 % chance, spread: Ole Miss -13.5
It's pretty wild to me how high Ole Miss is ranked with 2 losses. Their schedule is pretty dang manageable from here on out too, with 4 out of 5 remaining games at home, including Wofford. Auburn is a pretty spicy team, but uneven. And they have 3 losses already, so hopefully they pull this one out.
Florida @ UGA FPI: UGA, 82.1 % chance, spread: UGA -11.5
I could be talked into rooting for UGA here instead, the most important thing here is a tough overtime game or something, IMO. Florida has the easier schedule left, but they also have an extra loss. Let's just get a doubt OT game with UF pulling out out last minute.
Mississippi State @ Texas FPI: Texas, 90.1 % chance, spread: Texas -21
Both the spread and FPI feel off to me. I guess no one likes Miss State anymore after getting beat bad against Bama and LSU before losing a close one to OU at home. But you know who else lost a close one to OU? Yeah, that team that's favored to win by 3 touchdowns. MSU's defense is right at the border of being the kind of team Arch kicks butt against vs. the ones he struggles with... but their offense is pretty good. Rooting for the 3 loss team here.
Missouri @ Arkansas FPI: Mizzou, 73.4 % chance, spread: Mizzou -10
Like clockwork, Mizzou always rounds out the top 25 to prop up everyone else. This would be a great one for them to lose just to drop them out of the way as a "ranked win" for the other SEC teams.
SEC Overview: 4-5 Bid league
Lots of bye weeks this weekend apparently, but loads of upset potential with 3 ranked teams facing unranked teams. I'll be happy with upsets in half of these games, I think just getting 1 is most likely though.
Overall
Unbeaten teams: 3
One loss teams: 10
Two loss teams: 17
So last year I was more focused specifically on 2 loss or better SEC and Big 10 teams, but as ND obviously has a loss to a Big 12 team this year, that conference is obviously a bit more important. ND might actually have a trump card up its sleeve with respect to a 10 win Big 10 team and some common opponents, possibly even a head to head. But still, this same time last year, there were 21 Big 10 and SEC teams sitting at 2 losses or fewer. This year, it's only 18. That might not seem like much, but I think it's actually signifying a lot more early chaos.