Deadline: Saturday 31 October, 11:00

The model's expected points for Gameweek 9:

1. 👑 Haaland (Man City v Brighton) 6.8, with a 50% chance to score

2. Tavernier (Bournemouth v Leeds) 5.8

3. Hill (Bournemouth v Leeds) 5.3, only 1.3% owned

4. Van Hecke (Spurs v Palace) 5.1

5. Gabriel (Arsenal at Liverpool) 4.9

🕵️ Differentials (under 10% owned): Hill 1.3%, Silva 0.9%, Tonali 1.9%, Barry 7.4%

💰 Best value: O'Shea (Ipswich, £4.0m) and Van Hecke (£4.9m)

🤔 Bournemouth's defence is the model's sleeper pick this week. Hill, Silva and Tavernier are all in the top lists against Leeds.

Captain choices, transfers and "rate my team" all go in here. Who's getting the armband?

Hey everyone! I'm u/chriso38, a founding moderator of r/FootyStatMachine.

This is our new home for all things related to Premier League predictions: our stats model v an AI pundit called the Gaffer v the bookies, and you telling us who's got it wrong. We're excited to have you join us!

My son and I are football mad, so we built a little stats site, footystatmachine.co.uk. It's free, with no ads and no betting links. It predicts every Premier League game with its own model, and an AI pundit called the Gaffer reads the team news before each game and gives his verdict. Every round we score the model v the Gaffer v the bookies on who called it. So far the model's picked 50% of results to the bookies' 48%, though the bookies are winning more rounds (5–2).

What to Post

Post anything that you think the community would find interesting, helpful, or inspiring. Feel free to share your thoughts, photos, or questions about your score predictions, FPL captain picks and transfers, stats and charts, the title race, tactics, or your club's season.

Weekly Threads

🔮 Predictions thread (before each round): the model's calls. Tell us which it's got wrong, and post your own.

🎯 FPL captain thread (before the deadline): captain picks, transfers, team help.

📊 Round review (after the round): who called it, biggest shocks, bragging rights.

Community Vibe

We're all about being friendly, constructive, and inclusive. No betting tips, no spam. Let's build a space where everyone feels comfortable sharing and connecting.

How to Get Started

1. Introduce yourself in the comments below. Who do you support, and who's winning the league?

2. Post something today! Even a simple question can spark a great conversation.

3. If you know someone who would love this community, invite them to join.

Thanks for being part of the very first wave. Together, let's make r/FootyStatMachine amazing.