r/Patriots • u/therealsandyleon • Feb 02 '21

Potential Patriots draft target Mac Jones seeing stock rise at Senior Bowl

https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/31/potential-patriots-draft-target-mac-jones-seeing-stock-rise-at-senior-bowl/
57 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

63 comments sorted by

53

u/suckme_beautiful Feb 02 '21

Lots of people saying they wouldn’t take him at 15 but if he has the potential to be our next franchise QB you take him at 15 every time. Sincerely doubt he’ll be on the board after the 1st round, so what else do we do?

16

u/El_Producto Feb 02 '21 edited Feb 02 '21

The problem with this sort of logic is it doesn't have much of a limitation. It would lead you to overdraft Drew Lock, Kyle Boller, possibly Jordan Love depending on how things shake out for Green Bay.

Let me propose a mental framework: picture if for each player a savvy GM would have a sort of mental curve describing 100 different possible career outcomes from best to worst. Some guys are almost all bad outcomes with some OK ones. Some guys are mostly good to great outcomes. Each outcome has a value for the team that gets the guy.

For the Patriots I think there's clearly extra value compared to most teams in hitting on a QB so there is heightened reason to take a QB because those good/great outcomes are worth more than they would be to a team that sort of kind of has a QB like the Lions or that has a QB at least medium-term like the Vikings.

But everything still comes back to that "outcome curve" and the value it represents. If you think Mac Jones has a 15% chance of being a big success and a 25% chance of being a moderate success and there's a DE on the board who you think represents more average value due to lower chances of not working out, even if his better scenarios represent less value, you should take the DE.

I'm just getting into my draft reading so I'm not remotely up to speed. I like the balance of what I've read/seen on Jones and I like the idea of drafting him at 15 if he's what his fans think he is... but the value proposition still needs to be there (though again, QBs have boosted value for us right now).

9

u/Ronon_Dex Feb 02 '21

I've really started to come around on Jones, he has some distinctly Brady-esque traits (reading defenses, anticipatory throws). There was one particular play v Georgia that completely changed my tune on him, it showed a level of understanding far beyond most college QBs (completes a long TD to Waddle vs quarters coverage (should never happen), because he reads/fools the S perfectly, makes a beautiful throw before Waddle is open, and a quick release with pressure in his face). I think he'd be a great fit in McDaniels' offense.

With one caveat - he's the type of QB that needs players around him to thrive. He's not going to extend plays well, he'll need guys who can get open quickly because his deep ball can hang up, and pressure can get to him. So if you want to pick him, signing and drafting some WRs is a necessary move.

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4

u/ConciselyVerbose Feb 02 '21

40% on a QB isn’t really bad at 15.

I’m not commenting on any particular person but you’re not going to get much safer than that that low in the draft.

27

u/1_Bar_Warrior Feb 02 '21

what else do we do? WHAT ELSE? we go DB in the first. draft the 8th rated projected undrafted DB out of rutgers. and then patriots fans will continue to pretend it was a good pick until he's inevitably cut after playing 5 snaps in 3 years

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u/[deleted] Feb 02 '21

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u/suckme_beautiful Feb 02 '21

He didn’t throw the ball to Ruggs, Jeudy or Harris.

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19

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '21

Jones was better than Tua at Alabama. Threw to fewer weapons, too. Similar arm strength, more accurate, less mobile, better downfield thrower, fewer injury concerns, good pocket awareness. Nobody disputed Tua in the top 5. Why not Jones in the first round??

The anchoring cognitive bias is in effect. If Mac was mocked in the first round to start the year, nobody would bat an eye.

5

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '21

Threw to fewer weapons? Aren’t Smith and Waddle going top 15/20???

7

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '21

Yup.

Tua threw to Smith, Waddle, Jeudy (picked at 15), Ruggs (picked at 12), and Metchie.

Jones threw to Smith, Waddle (for only 4 games in 2020), and Metchie.

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2

u/Isolatedbamafan Feb 03 '21

Waddle was hurt most of the year

36

u/truecolors5 Feb 02 '21

I actually really like Mac Jones as a prospect. His ball placement and pocket presence are both really fuckin good. Hes my QB4.

7

u/1megabyte-brain Feb 02 '21

Yeah my view of has changed so much lately. Used to think he’s a typical Bama QB carried by all the talent around him, but now I genuinely think he’ll be good in the NFL.

7

u/Danwarr Feb 02 '21

He was outstanding in both the playoff games this year. I think he had a better season statistically this year than Trevor Lawrence has ever had by a significant margin as well

2

u/h_to_tha_o_v Feb 02 '21

Ya, but he'll never rush for 1,000 yards.

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4

u/starfoxer Feb 02 '21

Big Mac Jones!

1

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '21

This is the one guy I thought we had the best chance of getting

1

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '21

I doubt we pick him at 15 if he's there. I could see us trading into the end of the first to get him, though.

1

u/meegad Feb 03 '21

If Saban tells Bill he’s good he’ll take him. If not, I pray we don’t take this risk. We don’t have enough weapons for established NFL QBs to succeed in this offense, much less an unproven rookie who threw to a better receiving core in college than the one we currently have

1

u/[deleted] Feb 03 '21

Dunno, the best QBs don’t come from powerhouse schools. Even Tua, who was clearly a talented thrower, is finding it very tough in the NFL.

1

u/thebrownidentity Feb 03 '21

Gonna be honest, I’m not crazy about Jones as anything other than a 2nd, and even that feels too high. Go watch his highlight videos. Dude was throwing to wide open bama receivers that just flat fly past defenders. He has solid accuracy but he’s not going to be throwing to guys that will be getting the separation Bamas receivers were. There’s just no way. Maybe if he could be developed for a few years but I just don’t like Bama qbs based on what we’ve seen from them in the past.

1

u/chotchss Feb 02 '21

Hiring Fitzpatrick as an interim solution and drafting someone (I don't know enough about Jones to comment there) seems better than overpaying for Watson.

Deshaun is great, but we have a bunch of issues to address and those draft picks would be better served nabbing multiple new players. Spending all of our draft capital on a QB, even one as amazing as Watson, would see us in the same situation we were in before Brady left.

2

u/Aryaank Feb 02 '21

Yeah but when a franchise quarterback is available, you give up anything to get him. Difference between him and Brady is that Watson is a hybrid of Brady and Newton in some ways. He can do literally everything and if the patriots really do want him, they will probably offer anything and everything

2

u/chotchss Feb 02 '21

Why? We had the GOAT and we couldn't make it past the first round of the playoffs. Things will not magically become better just because we get Deshaun. We need to improve our WR and other positions first.

Ask yourself this: if Deshaun is the answer, why are the Texans not going to the Super Bowl? Because a QB, no matter how good, cannot carry the team by himself. And our team is currently no better than the Texans, with the obvious exception of our coach.

Better to build up the team, hire a journeyman QB, and try to draft a new guy to train up.

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