r/indianews • u/YashwantDeshmukh • Apr 14 '14
AMA Hello! I am Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder of CVoter. AMA! Ask me anything
Yashwant Deshmukh is a seasoned communications entrepreneur and over the last two decades has become a celebrated figure in the South Asian media and communication industry. As founder-owner of YRD Media, Yashwant has always placed special emphasis on impeccable research, design and production and delivered innovative and original news analysis across the spectrum, spanning 15 Union Budgets, over 100 Union & Assembly Elections and a plethora of international socio-political and economic events across 30 nations all over the world. CVoter - South Asia's largest Indian owned media and stakeholder research agency - is the flagship division of YRD Media and has worked with almost every major newspaper and news channel in India.
My Proof
https://twitter.com/cvoter/status/455594717984456704
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Apr 14 '14
Hello Mr. Deshmukh,
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how are opinion polls different from exit polls apart from of course the time at which they are conducted?
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I am assuming people might be a little embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for a party(say Congress this time due to their governance). How do you account for that? Thanks.
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Very good questions. The opinion poll is done while people are in their own homes. They may or may not actually go out to vote on the polling day. While the exit poll is conducted outside the polling booths; where only those are interviewed who have given vote for sure. The second point is called "spiral of silence" and is really a tricky situation to handle for all pollsters. We have our own statistical models to keep a check on this phenomenon; and that has helped us in getting accurate vote share projections so far.
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Thank to all friends who joined this AMA session. I hope you enjoyed the session as much as I did. You can follow me on twitter @cvoter . Cheers & take care. Good Bye.
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u/imdpathway Apr 14 '14
Good afternoon mr yashwant,
Pls tell us the methodology of opinion polls by c voter. What went wrong?
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
We have got it right in most previous elections in last 20 years. Would appreciate a precise election and year you wish to query.
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u/imdpathway Apr 14 '14
Sir,
The general methodology? Is it a trade secret that you dont want to share?
:-)
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Nope; it so wide open and normal. We do random probability by face to face as well as cati. You can read it on our website or just google it. its no rocket science.
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u/mogambokhush Apr 14 '14
What is http://www.wikipredict.in/
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Its an interactive fun-site for all viewers who wish to become "Prediction Pundit". The idea came to to be from my followers on social media; where i found so many of them having very serious analytic capabilities. I am offering a chance to everyone; to predict the elections better than all the agencies. Idea is; better predict yourself; rather than just criticizing everyone else. You can start right away :)
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u/ank_ Apr 14 '14
Hi ,
Two Questions
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What do you think went wrong with AAP. Should they have stayed out of LS polls ? Should they have concentrated more in just certain pockets ?
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Do you think elections currently are very unfair ? Every time I switch on TV or browse any Website, I am bombarded with ADS from BJP/Congress. Shouldn't the EC rain down on these ADS and check the source of funding ?
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u/honhaar_gunda Apr 14 '14
Hello Sir,
Recently I read a article which said that the biggest issue that psephologists in India face is that the middle class are very vocal but the poor do not easily reveal their choices to pollsters.
Would you subscribe to that view and if so, why do you think the poor are reluctant to reveal their electoral preferences?
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Good question. The factual answer is that Indians love to speak their minds. More so if they are living in Rural areas. The most slippery class is actually Middle Class; which speaks good sitting in their drawing rooms; but are highly unreliable as far as their turn out on polling day is concerned. The 2004 debacle of opinion polls was due to the drop of almost 18% in urban turnout.
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u/vtawde Apr 14 '14
How will aap impact in Punjab, given that corruption is a big issue there. Happy baishaki
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u/kileds Apr 14 '14
Is the situation in AP fast changing? I keep hearing TRS will be limites to only 4 districts. Hard to believe just after 1 month such turn around.
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u/goyalsanjeev Apr 14 '14
As we have seen in case of MNS in Mumbai in 2009 LS elections where they didn't win any seat but end up helping Congress. Why would same can not be sad for AAP in 2014 LS elections?
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Well; voters in India have moved beyond the obvious. They dont wish to "waste" their votes anymore. This is why we are looking at a very clear "Split Vote" phenomenon across India. People might support some local party at local level elections; but they are moving to central parties as far as Lok Sabha elections are concerned. They have now different choices at different levels.
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u/goyalsanjeev Apr 14 '14
Yes, a good number have moved. But there are still many AAP fans who wants to vote AAP, in pretext of clean-candidate, although they know that AAP candidate can not win.. Seems, their aversion to BJP/RSS is still there, they can't vote congress, hence they think their duty is done by voting clean party like AAP :)
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u/mogambokhush Apr 14 '14
Dear Sir, Thank you for doing the AMA.
How did you even got connected to the Modi's marriage pic? The resemblance is uncanny (much closer than Shasi Tharoor in Andaz apana apana)
serious question: Is there a cVoter poll going on for the current election trends? While the results and details cannot be announced, is there any place the Indian voters have "surprised" by indicating something unexpected?
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u/panditji_reloaded Apr 14 '14
My question to you is, how do you ensure that a small representative of probably 100 votes/constituency could be used as a sample for an entire Lok Sabha constituecy of about 10 lakh voters. How do you ensure the accuracy of your sample.?
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
The thumb rule is "Smaller the universe; larger the sample size. Just 100 samples cant predict a lok sabha. You can predict vote share of ALL INDIA in about 1500 samples; but from that you cant predict state by state vote share. You can predict Delhi vote share in 1500 samples ; but you cant predict East Delhi lok sabha from that. You can predict East Delhi lok sabha in 1500 samples; but you cant predict Patparganj Assembly segment. In 1500 samples you can predict One assembly segment; but you cant predict one municipal ward in that particular assembly segment. Hope you get the idea.
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u/7-methyltheophylline Apr 14 '14
I know exit polls are banned. But can you confirm or deny the presence of a Modi Wave in the country, or certain states/areas of the country?
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u/twistedlogix Apr 14 '14
We know about your illustrious father and all the good work he did. Did you also attend an RSS shakha ever? If not, why?
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Thanks. I have an extremely socially involved family and I am always proud of what my elders have done for the country. I have my own independent mind albeit it is informed by the values and ideals cherished by my family.
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Apr 14 '14
Hi Sir,
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What is your blunt opinion about the sting operation and who do you suspect is behind it ?
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Your personal gut feeling about Varanasi considering that you are from there
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
Well; we are the ONLY Indian company working in serious public opinion research. We are not only thriving; but giving all foreign multi-national research companies a run for their money through our proven track record. Put bluntly; a damage to CVoter is considered a gain by many interests out there. It was a failed gambit on their part; as it had been on many occasions in last 20 years.
As far as Varanasi is concerned; For many it will be "Ram Gopal Varma Ki Sholay " :))
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u/DeepXP Apr 14 '14
How much did Modi's personal issue dragged by Congress affected BJP / NDA votes? I think mostly, it would not have made difference but still curious to know.
Also, does statements from Azam Khan etc.. help them to gain more votes from Minorities or affect them negatively?
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u/YashwantDeshmukh Apr 14 '14
I think when public makes up its mind; such personal attacks only polarizes the public towards the choice they have already made. It will make a difference; but not in the direction that those making it personal might have liked to.
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Apr 14 '14
Do you think AAP will have any negative effect on BJP's final tally or are they helping them win more seats by splitting the anti-NDA votes?
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u/goyalsanjeev Apr 14 '14
Is Arvind Kejriwal a prime-minister material?